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COVID-19 does not stop at open borders: Spatial contagion among local authority districts during England's first wave

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  • Laroze, Denise
  • Neumayer, Eric
  • Plümper, Thomas

Abstract

Infectious diseases generate spatial dependence or contagion not only between individuals but also between geographical units. New infections in one local district do not just depend on properties of the district, but also on the strength of social ties of its population with populations in other districts and their own degree of infectiousness. We show that SARS-CoV-2 infections during the first wave of the pandemic spread across district borders in England as a function of pre-crisis commute to work streams between districts. Crucially, the strength of this spatial contagion depends on the phase of the epidemic. In the first pre-lockdown phase, the spread of the virus across district borders is high. During the lockdown period, the cross-border spread of new infections slows down significantly. Spatial contagion increases again after the lockdown is eased but not statistically significantly so.

Suggested Citation

  • Laroze, Denise & Neumayer, Eric & Plümper, Thomas, 2021. "COVID-19 does not stop at open borders: Spatial contagion among local authority districts during England's first wave," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 270(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:socmed:v:270:y:2021:i:c:s0277953620308741
    DOI: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2020.113655
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    1. O'Connor, Cliodhna & O'Connell, Nicola & Burke, Emma & Dempster, Martin & Graham, Christopher D. & Scally, Gabriel & Zgaga, Lina & Nolan, Ann & Nicolson, Gail & Mather, Luke & Barry, Joseph & Crowley,, 2021. "Bordering on crisis: A qualitative analysis of focus group, social media, and news media perspectives on the Republic of Ireland-Northern Ireland border during the ‘first wave’ of the COVID-19 pandemic," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    2. Sara M. Constantino & Alicia D. Cooperman & Thiago M. Q. Moreira, 2021. "Voting in a global pandemic: Assessing dueling influences of Covid‐19 on turnout," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 102(5), pages 2210-2235, September.
    3. Baghersad, Milad & Emadikhiav, Mohsen & Huang, C. Derrick & Behara, Ravi S., 2023. "Modularity maximization to design contiguous policy zones for pandemic response," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 304(1), pages 99-112.
    4. Caria, Andrea & Delogu, Marco & Meleddu, Marta & Sotgiu, Giovanni, 2024. "People inflows as a pandemic trigger: Evidence from a quasi-experimental study," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).

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