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Supply chain management based on volatility clustering: The effect of CBDC volatility

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  • Ding, Shusheng
  • Cui, Tianxiang
  • Wu, Xiangling
  • Du, Min

Abstract

A Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) launched by the Bank of England could enable businesses to directly make electronic payments. It can be argued that digital payment is helpful in supply chain management applications. However, the adoption of CBDC in the supply chain could bring new turbulence since the CBDC value may fluctuate. Therefore, this paper intends to optimize the production plan of manufacturing supply chain based on a volatility clustering model by reducing CBDC value uncertainty. We apply both GARCH model and machine learning model to depict the CBDC volatility clustering. Empirically, we employed Baltic Dry Index, Bitcoin and exchange rate as main variables with sample period from 2015 to 2021 to evaluate the performance of the two models. On this basis, we reveal that our machine learning model overwhelmingly outperforms the GARCH model. Consequently, our result implies that manufacturing companies’ performance can be strengthened through CBDC uncertainty reduction.

Suggested Citation

  • Ding, Shusheng & Cui, Tianxiang & Wu, Xiangling & Du, Min, 2022. "Supply chain management based on volatility clustering: The effect of CBDC volatility," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:62:y:2022:i:c:s0275531922000782
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2022.101690
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    1. Alfar, Abdelrahman J.K. & Kumpamool, Chamaiporn & Nguyen, Dung T.K. & Ahmed, Rizwan, 2023. "The determinants of issuing central bank digital currencies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    2. Huosong Xia & Yangmei Gao & Justin Zuopeng Zhang, 2023. "Understanding the adoption context of China’s digital currency electronic payment," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-27, December.
    3. Wang, Yi-Ran & Ma, Chao-Qun & Ren, Yi-Shuai, 2022. "A model for CBDC audits based on blockchain technology: Learning from the DCEP," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    4. Jabbar, Abdul & Geebren, Ahmed & Hussain, Zahid & Dani, Samir & Ul-Durar, Shajara, 2023. "Investigating individual privacy within CBDC: A privacy calculus perspective," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    5. Wang, Zhan-ao & Samuel, Ribeiro-Navarrete & Chen, Xiao-qian & Xu, Bing & Huang, Wei-lun, 2023. "Central bank digital currencies: Consumer data-driven sustainable operation management policy," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    6. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Wang, Chih-Wei & Hsieh, Hsin-Yi & Chen, Wen-Ling, 2023. "The impact of central bank digital currency variation on firm's implied volatility," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    CBDC; Volatility clustering; Machine learning; Digital currency; Supply chain management;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System

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