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Do Fixed Links Affect Settlement Patterns: A Synthetic Control Approach

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  • Tveter, Eivind
  • Welde, Morten
  • Odeck, James

Abstract

This paper evaluates the extent to which transportation projects affect settlement patterns. We consider fixed link projects because they provide a large and swift change in accessibility. We use the synthetic control method and estimate the impacts on settlement patterns for 11 fixed links projects constructed in the period from 1989 to 2008. The synthetic controls are weighted averages of control municipalities with weights chosen to replicate population trends in the pre-fixed link periods. We find clear impacts on settlement patterns for fixed links connecting islands to urban areas and on islands utilizing natural resources, although there are exceptions. In the other cases, the impacts are negligible.

Suggested Citation

  • Tveter, Eivind & Welde, Morten & Odeck, James, 2017. "Do Fixed Links Affect Settlement Patterns: A Synthetic Control Approach," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 59-72.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:retrec:v:63:y:2017:i:c:p:59-72
    DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2017.07.002
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fixed links; Transportation; Settlement patterns; Ex-post evaluation; Synthetic control method;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • R42 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Government and Private Investment Analysis; Road Maintenance; Transportation Planning
    • R14 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Land Use Patterns

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