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Airline schedule padding as a competitive strategy

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  • Yimga, Jules O.
  • Le, Huubinh B.

Abstract

This paper examines schedule padding as a strategic response to competitors' scheduling behavior in the U.S. domestic airline market. Using quarterly panel data at the airline–airport-pair level for 2023 and instrumental-variable estimation, we find strong evidence of strategic complementarity: 1-min increase in competitors’ padding induces nearly a 1-min increase by the focal carrier. This imitation persists across multiple benchmark definitions and market hauls, though the intensity is slightly weaker in highly competitive markets. The results suggest that the U.S. Department of Transportation on-time performance metrics may unintentionally promote a padding “arms race,” lengthening schedules, with implications for competition policy, scheduling efficiency, and consumer welfare.

Suggested Citation

  • Yimga, Jules O. & Le, Huubinh B., 2026. "Airline schedule padding as a competitive strategy," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:retrec:v:115:y:2026:i:c:s0739885925001830
    DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2025.101700
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    JEL classification:

    • L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets
    • L93 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Air Transportation
    • L98 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Government Policy

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