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The impacts of the global energy transition on China's energy security in the long-term: Heterogeneous evidence from the supply and consumption sides

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  • Hu, Xiaoxiao
  • Zhang, Weiqiang
  • Zhang, Shengling
  • Hao, Yu
  • Cong, Jianhui

Abstract

The complex global energy transition profoundly impacts China, the world's largest energy consumer. However, the existing body of literature often overlooks the distinct long-term mechanisms and differentiated shock impacts of this transition on national energy security. This paper addresses this by analyzing two key transition aspects—fossil fuel phase-out and renewable energy development—differentiating supply-side and demand-side shocks. We empirically investigate their medium- and long-term impacts on China using vector autoregressive (VAR) models and impulse response analysis. Key findings include: (1) Supply-side renewable development and fossil withdrawal show opposing initial security impacts; their combined positive effect persists for approximately a decade. (2) Global renewable development enhances market stability and system resilience (∼7 %) but increases crude oil market risks. (3) Renewable energy's positive impact is similar for consumption metrics and demand shocks; fossil withdrawal's suppressive effect is stronger on supply. (4) Solar and biomass significantly boost sustainability metrics (8 % improvement); wind energy's positive effects are particularly long-lasting (∼15 years), underscoring its long-term strategic importance.

Suggested Citation

  • Hu, Xiaoxiao & Zhang, Weiqiang & Zhang, Shengling & Hao, Yu & Cong, Jianhui, 2025. "The impacts of the global energy transition on China's energy security in the long-term: Heterogeneous evidence from the supply and consumption sides," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:255:y:2025:i:c:s0960148125014466
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2025.123784
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    References listed on IDEAS

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