Evolutionary pathways of renewable power system considering low-carbon policies: An agent-based modelling approach

The proposed "carbon neutrality" goal necessitates a profound decarbonization of China's power system, which involves reshaping the traditional coal-dominated energy structure. The orderly phase-out of coal-fired generation units and the realization of safe and economic transformation of the power system are important challenges faced by the construction of low-carbon power systems. As China's electricity market reform advances, the design of low-carbon policies and the self-interested behaviour of various market players will critically influence the decarbonization process. This article proposes an agent-based modelling approach that embeds a renewable energy investment model and a coal-fired power decommissioning model in power generation companies. The impact of low-carbon synergistic policy design on renewable energy and coal-fired power is examined using a representative region of China as the measurement target. The results indicate that while low-carbon policies exhibit varying effects across different regions, they uniformly contribute to a reduction in carbon emission intensity. Additionally, the deep peak regulation compensation policy and energy storage inputs address the issue of diminished flexibility resulting from the gradual phase-out of coal-fired generation units. These policies are complementary and collectively facilitate China's transition to a safe and economic low-carbon energy system.