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Will hydrogen and synthetic fuels energize our future? Their role in Europe's climate-neutral energy system and power system dynamics

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  • Béres, Rebeka
  • Nijs, Wouter
  • Boldrini, Annika
  • van den Broek, Machteld

Abstract

This study evaluates the technoeconomic impacts of direct and indirect electrification on the EU's net-zero emissions target by 2050. By linking the JRC-EU-TIMES long-term energy system model with PLEXOS hourly resolution power system model, this research offers a detailed analysis of the interactions between electricity, hydrogen and synthetic fuel demand, production technologies, and their effects on the power sector. It highlights the importance of high temporal resolution power system analysis to capture the synergistic effects of these components, often overlooked in isolated studies. Results indicate that direct electrification increases significantly and unimpacted by biomass, CCS, and nuclear energy assumptions. However indirect electrification in the form of hydrogen varies significantly, between 1400 and 2200 TWhH2 by 2050. Synthetic fuels are essential for sector coupling, making up 6–12% of total energy consumption by 2050, with the power sector supplying most hydrogen and CO2 for their production. Varying levels of indirect electrification impact electrolysers, renewable energy, and firm capacities. Higher indirect electrification increases electrolyser capacity factors by 8%, leading to more renewable energy curtailment but improves system reliability by reducing 11 TWh unserved energy and increasing flexibility options. These insights inform EU energy policies, stressing the need for a balanced approach to electrification, biomass use, and CCS to achieve a sustainable and reliable net-zero energy system by 2050. We also explore limitations and sensitivities.

Suggested Citation

  • Béres, Rebeka & Nijs, Wouter & Boldrini, Annika & van den Broek, Machteld, 2024. "Will hydrogen and synthetic fuels energize our future? Their role in Europe's climate-neutral energy system and power system dynamics," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 375(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:375:y:2024:i:c:s0306261924014363
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.124053
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Boldrini, Annika & Koolen, Derck & Crijns-Graus, Wina & van den Broek, Machteld, 2024. "The impact of decarbonising the iron and steel industry on European power and hydrogen systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 361(C).
    2. Simoes, Sofia & Nijs, Wouter & Ruiz, Pablo & Sgobbi, Alessandra & Thiel, Christian, 2017. "Comparing policy routes for low-carbon power technology deployment in EU – an energy system analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 353-365.
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    1. Kleanthis, Nikos & Stavrakas, Vassilis & Flamos, Alexandros, 2025. "Bidirectional soft-linking of a Capacity Expansion Model with a Production Cost Model to evaluate the feasibility of transition pathways towards carbon neutrality in the power sector," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 378(PB).
    2. Knorr, L. & Buchenau, N. & Schlosser, F. & Divkovic, D. & Prina, M.G. & Meschede, H., 2025. "Electrification and flexibility of process heat in energy system modelling: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    3. Zhao, Conghao & Zhou, Ming & Li, Jian & Fu, Zhihang & Liu, Dazheng & Wu, Zhaoyuan, 2025. "Evolutionary pathways of renewable power system considering low-carbon policies: An agent-based modelling approach," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).

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