IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v256y2025ics0951832024008329.html

Model of safety investment optimization in chemical industrial parks based on system dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • He, Shan
  • Shi, Shiliang
  • Li, Min
  • Lin, Zhijun
  • Lu, Yi
  • Li, He

Abstract

Chemical industrial parks (CIPs) are faced with extremely high safety risks due to their complex production process and environment. The key to enhancing safety in these parks, lies in maximizing the safety level improvement with limited safety investment. Traditional methods have defects in the quantitation and dynamic control and prediction of safety investment in CIPs. Aiming at determining the strategy of safety investment optimization in CIPs, a system dynamics (SD) model of safety investment optimization was proposed in this study. Based on 203 major accidents that occurred in CIPs from 2000 to 2023, the key causes of accidents were identified and safety investment tailored to these key causes were obtained. Subsequently, an SD model was developed to derive an optimized strategy of safety investment in CIPs with the aid of the three-step simulation method. The results demonstrate that safety management has the greatest impact on the safety and economic system of CIPs, followed by safety training, safety protection, and safety assessment. The shorter the expected time to reach a certain safety level, the higher the minimum initial total safety investment required. Furthermore, a case study was conducted on a provincial CIP to verify feasibility of the proposed model.

Suggested Citation

  • He, Shan & Shi, Shiliang & Li, Min & Lin, Zhijun & Lu, Yi & Li, He, 2025. "Model of safety investment optimization in chemical industrial parks based on system dynamics," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:256:y:2025:i:c:s0951832024008329
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2024.110761
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832024008329
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2024.110761?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Men, Jinkun & Chen, Guohua & Yang, Yunfeng & Reniers, Genserik, 2022. "An event-driven probabilistic methodology for modeling the spatial-temporal evolution of natural hazard-induced domino chain in chemical industrial parks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    2. Aven, Terje & Hiriart, Yolande, 2011. "The use of a basic safety investment model in a practical risk management context," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(11), pages 1421-1425.
    3. Wu, Jiansong & Zhang, Linlin & Bai, Yiping & Reniers, Genserik, 2022. "A safety investment optimization model for power grid enterprises based on System Dynamics and Bayesian network theory," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    4. Sato, Yuji, 2012. "Optimal budget planning for investment in safety measures of a chemical company," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 579-585.
    5. Liu, Jianqiao & Zou, Yanhua & Wang, Wei & Zhang, Li & Liu, Xueyang & Ding, Qianqiao & Qin, Zhuomin & ÄŒepin, Marko, 2021. "Analysis of dependencies among performance shaping factors in human reliability analysis based on a system dynamics approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    6. Abrahamsen, Eirik Bjorheim & Milazzo, Maria Francesca & Selvik, Jon T. & Asche, Frank & Abrahamsen, HÃ¥kon Bjorheim, 2020. "Prioritising investments in safety measures in the chemical industry by using the Analytic Hierarchy Process," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    7. He, Yongxiu & Jiao, Jie & Chen, Qian & Ge, Sifan & Chang, Yan & Xu, Yang, 2017. "Urban long term electricity demand forecast method based on system dynamics of the new economic normal: The case of Tianjin," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 9-22.
    8. Qiao, Yidan & Zhang, Xian & Wang, Hanyu & Chen, Dengkai, 2024. "Dynamic assessment method for human factor risk of manned deep submergence operation system based on SPAR-H and SD," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    9. Liu, Aihua & Chen, Ke & Huang, Xiaofei & Li, Didi & Zhang, Xiaochun, 2021. "Dynamic risk assessment model of buried gas pipelines based on system dynamics," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    10. Koziolek, Anne & Avritzer, Alberto & Suresh, Sindhu & Menasché, Daniel S. & Diniz, Morganna & de Souza e Silva, Edmundo & Leão, Rosa M. & Trivedi, Kishor & Happe, Lucia, 2016. "Assessing survivability to support power grid investment decisions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 30-43.
    11. Liu, Jinbiao & Tan, Lingling & Ma, Yaping, 2024. "An integrated risk assessment method for urban areas due to chemical leakage accidents," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    12. Elkady, Sahar & Hernantes, Josune & Labaka, Leire, 2023. "Towards a resilient community: A decision support framework for prioritizing stakeholders' interaction areas," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    13. Meng, Huixing & Liu, Xuan & Xing, Jinduo & Zio, Enrico, 2022. "A method for economic evaluation of predictive maintenance technologies by integrating system dynamics and evolutionary game modelling," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. He, Shan & Shi, Shiliang & Lin, Zhijun & Lu, Yi & Li, He, 2026. "Optimization of decision-making in safety investments for domino accident prevention in chemical industrial parks based on system dynamics," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 270(C).
    2. Rafew, S. M. & Kabir, Golam, 2026. "Application of interactive threat matrix induced system dynamics model to determine risk probability and resilient policy measures for CO2 pipelines," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    3. Men, Jinkun & Chen, Guohua, 2026. "Multi-hazard coupling fragility analysis for steel cylindrical tanks subjected to earthquake-tsunami sequence," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    4. Guo, Jian & Ma, Kaijiang & Ren, Haoxuan, 2025. "Topological analysis of risks in hazardous materials transportation systems using fitness landscape theory and association rules mining," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 264(PB).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. He, Shan & Shi, Shiliang & Lin, Zhijun & Lu, Yi & Li, He, 2026. "Optimization of decision-making in safety investments for domino accident prevention in chemical industrial parks based on system dynamics," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 270(C).
    2. Wu, Jiansong & Zhang, Linlin & Bai, Yiping & Reniers, Genserik, 2022. "A safety investment optimization model for power grid enterprises based on System Dynamics and Bayesian network theory," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    3. Guo, Xiaoxue & Ding, Long & Ji, Jie & Cozzani, Valerio, 2022. "A cost-effective optimization model of safety investment allocation for risk reduction of domino effects," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    4. Gong, Shitao & Chen, Linyan & Zhou, Qianqian & Gao, Xin & Shen, Feng, 2025. "Vulnerability evolution of critical infrastructures: A multidimensional environment-integrated system dynamics analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
    5. Park, Jooyoung & Boring, Ronald L., 2025. "Dynamic human reliability analysis using the EMRALD dynamic risk assessment tool," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 264(PA).
    6. Lin Wang & Yuping Xing, 2022. "Risk Assessment of a Coupled Natural Gas and Electricity Market Considering Dual Interactions: A System Dynamics Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-18, December.
    7. Yongguang Zou & Yuemei He & Weiling Lin & Sha Fang, 2021. "China’s regional public safety efficiency: a data envelopment analysis approach," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 66(2), pages 409-438, April.
    8. Xu, Dengyu & Xu, Jie & Wei, Ranran & Li, Boyu & Wu, Jing, 2026. "DB-DDPG-ET: A novel risk assessment framework for crowd safety during boarding & alighting process at subway platforms," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 270(C).
    9. Meng, Huixing & Liu, Xuan & Xing, Jinduo & Zio, Enrico, 2022. "A method for economic evaluation of predictive maintenance technologies by integrating system dynamics and evolutionary game modelling," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    10. Qiao, Yidan & Zhang, Xian & Wang, Hanyu & Chen, Dengkai, 2024. "Dynamic assessment method for human factor risk of manned deep submergence operation system based on SPAR-H and SD," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    11. Selivanova, Anna & KrejÄ Ã­, Igor & Sedlářová-Nehézová, Tereza & Hůlka, Jiří & ÄŒeÅ¡pírová, Irena & KuÄ a, Petr, 2025. "Creation of a System Dynamics model of recovery of affected areas after radioactive contamination," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    12. He, Y.X. & Jiao, J. & Chen, R.J. & Shu, H., 2018. "The optimization of Chinese power grid investment based on transmission and distribution tariff policy: A system dynamics approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 112-122.
    13. Wang, Chen & Tang, Man & Hong, Guopeng & Wang, Defa & Chen, Zhibin, 2025. "Dynamic integrated approach to safety risk management in substation maintenance and testing integration operations," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    14. Li, Xin & Ding, Long & Ji, Jie & Xu, Wenjie & Wang, Jin & Cai, Ningbo, 2026. "Ignition probability assessment of leaked fuel on hot surfaces in aircraft based on multivariate statistical analysis and system dynamics," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 267(PA).
    15. Tan, Qiong & Fu, Ming & Wang, Zhengxing & Yuan, Hongyong & Sun, Jinhua, 2024. "A real-time early warning classification method for natural gas leakage based on random forest," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).
    16. Ling Tang & Chengyuan Zhang & Tingfei Li & Ling Li, 2021. "A novel BEMD-based method for forecasting tourist volume with search engine data," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(5), pages 1015-1038, August.
    17. Guo, Jianbin & Ma, Shuo & Zeng, Shengkui & Che, Haiyang & Pan, Xing, 2024. "A risk evaluation method for human-machine interaction in emergencies based on multiple mental models-driven situation assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 252(C).
    18. Liu, Changyu & Song, Yadong & Wang, Wei & Shi, Xunpeng, 2023. "The governance of manufacturers’ greenwashing behaviors: A tripartite evolutionary game analysis of electric vehicles," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 333(C).
    19. Lin, Jiang & Xu Liu, & Gang He,, 2020. "Regional electricity demand and economic transition in China," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    20. Feng, Qianqian & Sun, Xiaolei & Hao, Jun & Li, Jianping, 2021. "Predictability dynamics of multifactor-influenced installed capacity: A perspective of country clustering," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:256:y:2025:i:c:s0951832024008329. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.