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The use of a basic safety investment model in a practical risk management context

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  • Aven, Terje
  • Hiriart, Yolande

Abstract

We consider a basic model in economic safety analysis: a firm is willing to invest an amount x in safety measures to avoid an accident A, which in the case of occurrence, leads to a loss of size L. The probability of an accident is a function of x. The optimal value of x is determined by minimizing the expected costs. In the paper, we re-examine this model by adopting a practical risk/safety management perspective. We question how this model can be used for guiding the firm and regulators in determining the proper level of investment in safety. Attention is given to issues like how to determine the probability of an accident and how to take into account uncertainties that extend beyond the expected value. It is concluded that the model, with suitable extensions and if properly implemented, provides a valuable decision support tool. By focusing on investment levels and stimulating thereby the generation of alternative risk-reducing measures, the model is considered particularly useful in risk reduction (ALARP) processes.

Suggested Citation

  • Aven, Terje & Hiriart, Yolande, 2011. "The use of a basic safety investment model in a practical risk management context," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(11), pages 1421-1425.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:96:y:2011:i:11:p:1421-1425
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2011.07.008
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Yongguang Zou & Yuemei He & Weiling Lin & Sha Fang, 2021. "China’s regional public safety efficiency: a data envelopment analysis approach," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 66(2), pages 409-438, April.
    2. Guo, Xiaoxue & Ding, Long & Ji, Jie & Cozzani, Valerio, 2022. "A cost-effective optimization model of safety investment allocation for risk reduction of domino effects," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    3. Wang, Lei & Liu, Qing & Dong, Shiyu & Guedes Soares, C., 2022. "Selection of countermeasure portfolio for shipping safety with consideration of investment risk aversion," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).

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