IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v225y2022ics0951832022002307.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A cost-effective optimization model of safety investment allocation for risk reduction of domino effects

Author

Listed:
  • Guo, Xiaoxue
  • Ding, Long
  • Ji, Jie
  • Cozzani, Valerio

Abstract

In general, the allocation strategy of safety measures in the domino effect is based on technical standards or simplistic rules of thumb, often leading to a subjective and uncertain decision-making process. In this work, a cost-effective risk reduction optimization model is proposed to objectively allocate the safety investment concerning domino effects in view of the risk and economic cost. Different from previous safety barrier performance assessments, we directly relate risk to economic cost through mathematical functions to trade off the economic effectiveness and domino effect risk under lower uncertainty. Not only mitigating measures, but also preventive measures are considered for domino risk reduction in the decision-making process of safety investment allocation in practical applications. The results from the case study demonstrate that the proposed model can help decision makers to identify the optimal safety investment among different investments and find the optimal investment allocation strategy given a specific economic investment in the worst-case domino scenario.

Suggested Citation

  • Guo, Xiaoxue & Ding, Long & Ji, Jie & Cozzani, Valerio, 2022. "A cost-effective optimization model of safety investment allocation for risk reduction of domino effects," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:225:y:2022:i:c:s0951832022002307
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2022.108584
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832022002307
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2022.108584?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dupuits, E.J.C. & Schweckendiek, T. & Kok, M., 2017. "Economic optimization of coastal flood defense systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 143-152.
    2. Nima Khakzad & Faisal Khan & Paul Amyotte & Valerio Cozzani, 2013. "Domino Effect Analysis Using Bayesian Networks," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(2), pages 292-306, February.
    3. Wu, Jiansong & Zhang, Linlin & Bai, Yiping & Reniers, Genserik, 2022. "A safety investment optimization model for power grid enterprises based on System Dynamics and Bayesian network theory," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    4. Kim, Kyungmee O. & Zuo, Ming J., 2018. "Optimal allocation of reliability improvement target based on the failure risk and improvement cost," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 104-110.
    5. Redutskiy, Yury & Camitz-Leidland, Cecilie M. & Vysochyna, Anastasiia & Anderson, Kristanna T. & Balycheva, Marina, 2021. "Safety systems for the oil and gas industrial facilities: Design, maintenance policy choice, and crew scheduling," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    6. Khakzad, Nima & Landucci, Gabriele & Cozzani, Valerio & Reniers, Genserik & Pasman, Hans, 2018. "Cost-effective fire protection of chemical plants against domino effects," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 412-421.
    7. T S Glickman & H Khamooshi, 2005. "Using hazard networks to determine risk reduction strategies," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 56(11), pages 1265-1272, November.
    8. Modibbo, Umar Muhammad & Arshad, Mohd. & Abdalghani, Omer & Ali, Irfan, 2021. "Optimization and estimation in system reliability allocation problem," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    9. Abrahamsen, Eirik Bjorheim & Milazzo, Maria Francesca & Selvik, Jon T. & Asche, Frank & Abrahamsen, HÃ¥kon Bjorheim, 2020. "Prioritising investments in safety measures in the chemical industry by using the Analytic Hierarchy Process," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    10. Coit, David W. & Zio, Enrico, 2019. "The evolution of system reliability optimization," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    11. Aven, Terje & Hiriart, Yolande, 2011. "The use of a basic safety investment model in a practical risk management context," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(11), pages 1421-1425.
    12. Landucci, Gabriele & Necci, Amos & Antonioni, Giacomo & Argenti, Francesca & Cozzani, Valerio, 2017. "Risk assessment of mitigated domino scenarios in process facilities," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 37-53.
    13. Landucci, Gabriele & Argenti, Francesca & Tugnoli, Alessandro & Cozzani, Valerio, 2015. "Quantitative assessment of safety barrier performance in the prevention of domino scenarios triggered by fire," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 30-43.
    14. Khakzad, Nima & Landucci, Gabriele & Reniers, Genserik, 2017. "Application of dynamic Bayesian network to performance assessment of fire protection systems during domino effects," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 232-247.
    15. Farid Kadri & B. Birregah & Eric Chatelet, 2014. "The Impact of Natural Disasters on Critical Infrastructures: A Domino Effect-based Study," Post-Print hal-02365385, HAL.
    16. Ding, Long & Khan, Faisal & Ji, Jie, 2020. "A novel approach for domino effects modeling and risk analysis based on synergistic effect and accident evidence," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    17. Rahman, Md Samsur & Colbourne, Bruce & Khan, Faisal, 2021. "Risk-Based Cost Benefit Analysis of Offshore Resource Centre to Support Remote Offshore Operations in Harsh Environment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    18. Khakzad, Nima & Reniers, Genserik & Abbassi, Rouzbeh & Khan, Faisal, 2016. "Vulnerability analysis of process plants subject to domino effects," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 127-136.
    19. Dupuits, E.J.C. & Klerk, W.J. & Schweckendiek, T. & de Bruijn, K.M., 2019. "Impact of including interdependencies between multiple riverine flood defences on the economically optimal flood safety levels," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    20. Chen, Chao & Reniers, Genserik & Khakzad, Nima, 2019. "Integrating safety and security resources to protect chemical industrial parks from man-made domino effects: A dynamic graph approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    21. Khakzad, Nima, 2015. "Application of dynamic Bayesian network to risk analysis of domino effects in chemical infrastructures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 263-272.
    22. Misuri, Alessio & Landucci, Gabriele & Cozzani, Valerio, 2020. "Assessment of safety barrier performance in Natech scenarios," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    23. Janssens, Jochen & Talarico, Luca & Reniers, Genserik & Sörensen, Kenneth, 2015. "A decision model to allocate protective safety barriers and mitigate domino effects," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 44-52.
    24. Nima Khakzad & Gabriele Landucci & Genserik Reniers, 2017. "Application of Graph Theory to Cost‐Effective Fire Protection of Chemical Plants During Domino Effects," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(9), pages 1652-1667, September.
    25. Nima Khakzad & Faisal Khan & Paul Amyotte & Valerio Cozzani, 2014. "Risk Management of Domino Effects Considering Dynamic Consequence Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(6), pages 1128-1138, June.
    26. Abrahamsen, Eirik Bjorheim & Selvik, Jon Tømmerås & Milazzo, Maria Francesca & Langdalen, Henrik & Dahl, Roy Endre & Bansal, Surbhi & Abrahamsen, Håkon Bjorheim, 2021. "On the use of the ‘Return Of Safety Investments’ (ROSI) measure for decision-making in the chemical processing industry," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Khakzad, Nima, 2023. "A methodology based on Dijkstra's algorithm and mathematical programming for optimal evacuation in process plants in the event of major tank fires," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    2. Misuri, Alessio & Landucci, Gabriele & Cozzani, Valerio, 2021. "Assessment of risk modification due to safety barrier performance degradation in Natech events," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    3. Khakzad, Nima, 2023. "A goal programming approach to multi-objective optimization of firefighting strategies in the event of domino effects," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    4. Misuri, Alessio & Landucci, Gabriele & Cozzani, Valerio, 2021. "Assessment of safety barrier performance in the mitigation of domino scenarios caused by Natech events," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    5. Khakzad, Nima, 2021. "Optimal firefighting to prevent domino effects: Methodologies based on dynamic influence diagram and mathematical programming," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    6. Ding, Long & Khan, Faisal & Ji, Jie, 2022. "A novel vulnerability model considering synergistic effect of fire and overpressure in chemical processing facilities," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    7. Nima Khakzad & Gabriele Landucci & Genserik Reniers, 2017. "Application of Graph Theory to Cost‐Effective Fire Protection of Chemical Plants During Domino Effects," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(9), pages 1652-1667, September.
    8. Lin Xie & Mary Ann Lundteigen & Yiliu Liu, 2020. "Reliability and barrier assessment of series–parallel systems subject to cascading failures," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 234(3), pages 455-469, June.
    9. Ovidi, Federica & Zhang, Laobing & Landucci, Gabriele & Reniers, Genserik, 2021. "Agent-based model and simulation of mitigated domino scenarios in chemical tank farms," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    10. Hou, Lei & Wu, Xingguang & Wu, Zhuang & Wu, Shouzhi, 2020. "Pattern identification and risk prediction of domino effect based on data mining methods for accidents occurred in the tank farm," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    11. Chen, Chao & Yang, Ming & Reniers, Genserik, 2021. "A dynamic stochastic methodology for quantifying HAZMAT storage resilience," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    12. Martin Folch-Calvo & Francisco Brocal-Fernández & Cristina González-Gaya & Miguel A. Sebastián, 2020. "Analysis and Characterization of Risk Methodologies Applied to Industrial Parks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-35, September.
    13. Weiliang Qiao & Enze Huang & Hongtongyang Guo & Yang Liu & Xiaoxue Ma, 2022. "Barriers Involved in the Safety Management Systems: A Systematic Review of Literature," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(15), pages 1-35, August.
    14. Laobing Zhang & Gabriele Landucci & Genserik Reniers & Nima Khakzad & Jianfeng Zhou, 2018. "DAMS: A Model to Assess Domino Effects by Using Agent‐Based Modeling and Simulation," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(8), pages 1585-1600, August.
    15. Zhou, Jianfeng & Reniers, Genserik, 2020. "Probabilistic Petri-net addition enabling decision making depending on situational change: The case of emergency response to fuel tank farm fire," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    16. Tugnoli, Alessandro & Scarponi, Giordano Emrys & Antonioni, Giacomo & Cozzani, Valerio, 2022. "Quantitative assessment of domino effect and escalation scenarios caused by fragment projection," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    17. Tao Zeng & Guohua Chen & Yunfeng Yang & Genserik Reniers & Yixin Zhao & Xia Liu, 2020. "A Systematic Literature Review on Safety Research Related to Chemical Industrial Parks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-27, July.
    18. Zhou, Jianfeng & Reniers, Genserik & Cozzani, Valerio, 2023. "A Petri-net approach for firefighting force allocation analysis of fire emergency response with backups," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    19. Khakzad, Nima & Reniers, Genserik, 2019. "Low-capacity utilization of process plants: A cost-robust approach to tackle man-made domino effects," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    20. Khakzad, Nima & Landucci, Gabriele & Reniers, Genserik, 2017. "Application of dynamic Bayesian network to performance assessment of fire protection systems during domino effects," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 232-247.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:225:y:2022:i:c:s0951832022002307. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.