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Risk assessment of mitigated domino scenarios in process facilities

Author

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  • Landucci, Gabriele
  • Necci, Amos
  • Antonioni, Giacomo
  • Argenti, Francesca
  • Cozzani, Valerio

Abstract

The propagation of accidents among process units may lead to severe cascading events or domino effects with catastrophic consequences. Prevention, mitigation and management of domino scenarios is of utmost importance and may be achieved in industrial facilities through the adoption of multiple safety layers. The present study was aimed at developing an innovative methodology to address the quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of domino scenarios accounting for the presence and role of safety barriers. Based on the expected performance of safety barriers, a dedicated event tree analysis allowed the identification and the assessment of the frequencies of the different end-point events deriving from unmitigated and partially mitigated domino chains. Specific criteria were introduced in consequence analysis to consider the mitigation effects of end-point scenarios deriving from safety barriers. Individual and societal risk indexes were calculated accounting for safety barriers and the mitigated scenarios that may result from their actions. The application of the methodology to case-studies of industrial interest proved the importance of introducing a specific systematic and quantitative analysis of safety barrier performance when addressing escalation leading to domino effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Landucci, Gabriele & Necci, Amos & Antonioni, Giacomo & Argenti, Francesca & Cozzani, Valerio, 2017. "Risk assessment of mitigated domino scenarios in process facilities," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 37-53.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:160:y:2017:i:c:p:37-53
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2016.11.023
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Necci, Amos & Argenti, Francesca & Landucci, Gabriele & Cozzani, Valerio, 2014. "Accident scenarios triggered by lightning strike on atmospheric storage tanks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 30-46.
    2. Necci, Amos & Cozzani, Valerio & Spadoni, Gigliola & Khan, Faisal, 2015. "Assessment of domino effect: State of the art and research Needs," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 3-18.
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    5. Masum Jujuly, Muhammad & Rahman, Aziz & Ahmed, Salim & Khan, Faisal, 2015. "LNG pool fire simulation for domino effect analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 19-29.
    6. Landucci, Gabriele & Argenti, Francesca & Tugnoli, Alessandro & Cozzani, Valerio, 2015. "Quantitative assessment of safety barrier performance in the prevention of domino scenarios triggered by fire," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 30-43.
    7. Khakzad, Nima, 2015. "Application of dynamic Bayesian network to risk analysis of domino effects in chemical infrastructures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 263-272.
    8. Tugnoli, Alessandro & Cozzani, Valerio & Di Padova, Annamaria & Barbaresi, Tiziana & Tallone, Fabrizio, 2012. "Mitigation of fire damage and escalation by fireproofing: A risk-based strategy," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 25-35.
    9. Janssens, Jochen & Talarico, Luca & Reniers, Genserik & Sörensen, Kenneth, 2015. "A decision model to allocate protective safety barriers and mitigate domino effects," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 44-52.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Hou, Lei & Wu, Xingguang & Wu, Zhuang & Wu, Shouzhi, 2020. "Pattern identification and risk prediction of domino effect based on data mining methods for accidents occurred in the tank farm," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    2. Misuri, Alessio & Ricci, Federica & Sorichetti, Riccardo & Cozzani, Valerio, 2023. "The Effect of Safety Barrier Degradation on the Severity of Primary Natech Scenarios," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    3. Misuri, Alessio & Landucci, Gabriele & Cozzani, Valerio, 2020. "Assessment of safety barrier performance in Natech scenarios," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    4. Guo, Xiaoxue & Ding, Long & Ji, Jie & Cozzani, Valerio, 2022. "A cost-effective optimization model of safety investment allocation for risk reduction of domino effects," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    5. Khakzad, Nima, 2023. "A methodology based on Dijkstra's algorithm and mathematical programming for optimal evacuation in process plants in the event of major tank fires," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    6. Tugnoli, Alessandro & Scarponi, Giordano Emrys & Antonioni, Giacomo & Cozzani, Valerio, 2022. "Quantitative assessment of domino effect and escalation scenarios caused by fragment projection," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    7. Ovidi, Federica & Zhang, Laobing & Landucci, Gabriele & Reniers, Genserik, 2021. "Agent-based model and simulation of mitigated domino scenarios in chemical tank farms," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    8. Misuri, Alessio & Landucci, Gabriele & Cozzani, Valerio, 2021. "Assessment of safety barrier performance in the mitigation of domino scenarios caused by Natech events," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    9. Misuri, Alessio & Landucci, Gabriele & Cozzani, Valerio, 2021. "Assessment of risk modification due to safety barrier performance degradation in Natech events," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    10. Yang Tang & Jiajia Jing & Zhidong Zhang & Yan Yang, 2017. "A Quantitative Risk Analysis Method for the High Hazard Mechanical System in Petroleum and Petrochemical Industry," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-18, December.
    11. Arafat Basheer & S. M. Tauseef & Tasneem Abbasi & S. A. Abbasi, 2019. "A template for quantitative risk assessment of facilities storing hazardous chemicals," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 10(5), pages 1158-1172, October.

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