IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v167y2017icp232-247.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Application of dynamic Bayesian network to performance assessment of fire protection systems during domino effects

Author

Listed:
  • Khakzad, Nima
  • Landucci, Gabriele
  • Reniers, Genserik

Abstract

The propagation of fire in chemical plants – also known as fire domino effects - largely depends on the performance of add-on passive and active protection systems such as sprinkler systems, water deluge systems, emergency shut down and emergency blow down systems, fireproofing, and emergency response. Although such safety barriers are widely employed to prevent or delay the initiation or escalation of fire domino effects, their inclusion in the modeling and risk assessment of fire domino effects has hardly been taken into account. In the present study, the dynamic evolution of fire protection systems has been investigated qualitatively using event tree analysis. To quantify the temporal changes and their impact on the escalation of fire domino effects, a dynamic Bayesian network methodology has been developed. The application of the methodology has been demonstrated using an illustrative case study, considering a variety of fire scenarios, target installations, and firefighting systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Khakzad, Nima & Landucci, Gabriele & Reniers, Genserik, 2017. "Application of dynamic Bayesian network to performance assessment of fire protection systems during domino effects," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 232-247.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:167:y:2017:i:c:p:232-247
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2017.06.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832016305828
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2017.06.004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Necci, Amos & Argenti, Francesca & Landucci, Gabriele & Cozzani, Valerio, 2014. "Accident scenarios triggered by lightning strike on atmospheric storage tanks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 30-46.
    2. Landucci, Gabriele & Argenti, Francesca & Tugnoli, Alessandro & Cozzani, Valerio, 2015. "Quantitative assessment of safety barrier performance in the prevention of domino scenarios triggered by fire," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 30-43.
    3. Necci, Amos & Cozzani, Valerio & Spadoni, Gigliola & Khan, Faisal, 2015. "Assessment of domino effect: State of the art and research Needs," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 3-18.
    4. Khakzad, Nima & Reniers, Genserik & Abbassi, Rouzbeh & Khan, Faisal, 2016. "Vulnerability analysis of process plants subject to domino effects," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 127-136.
    5. Zhou, Jianfeng & Reniers, Genserik & Khakzad, Nima, 2016. "Application of event sequence diagram to evaluate emergency response actions during fire-induced domino effects," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 202-209.
    6. Khakzad, Nima, 2015. "Application of dynamic Bayesian network to risk analysis of domino effects in chemical infrastructures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 263-272.
    7. Tugnoli, Alessandro & Cozzani, Valerio & Di Padova, Annamaria & Barbaresi, Tiziana & Tallone, Fabrizio, 2012. "Mitigation of fire damage and escalation by fireproofing: A risk-based strategy," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 25-35.
    8. Janssens, Jochen & Talarico, Luca & Reniers, Genserik & Sörensen, Kenneth, 2015. "A decision model to allocate protective safety barriers and mitigate domino effects," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 44-52.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Moradi, Ramin & Cofre-Martel, Sergio & Lopez Droguett, Enrique & Modarres, Mohammad & Groth, Katrina M., 2022. "Integration of deep learning and Bayesian networks for condition and operation risk monitoring of complex engineering systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    2. Singh, Kritika & Maiti, J, 2020. "A novel data mining approach for analysis of accident paths and performance assessment of risk control systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    3. Guo, Xiaoxue & Ding, Long & Ji, Jie & Cozzani, Valerio, 2022. "A cost-effective optimization model of safety investment allocation for risk reduction of domino effects," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    4. Zhiqiang Liu & Wenbo Zhu & Hongzhou Zhang & Shengjin Wang & Lu Fang & Weijun Hong & Hua Shao & Guopeng Wang, 2020. "Reliability evaluation of dynamic face recognition systems based on improved Fuzzy Dynamic Bayesian Network," International Journal of Distributed Sensor Networks, , vol. 16(3), pages 15501477209, March.
    5. Jiansong Wu & Weipeng Fang & Xing Tong & Shuaiqi Yuan & Weiqi Guo, 2019. "Bayesian analysis of school bus accidents: a case study of China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 95(3), pages 463-483, February.
    6. Khakzad, Nima, 2023. "A methodology based on Dijkstra's algorithm and mathematical programming for optimal evacuation in process plants in the event of major tank fires," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    7. Chen, Chao & Yang, Ming & Reniers, Genserik, 2021. "A dynamic stochastic methodology for quantifying HAZMAT storage resilience," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    8. Qi Yuan & Hongqinq Zhu & Xiaolei Zhang & Baozhen Zhang & Xingkai Zhang, 2022. "An Integrated Quantitative Risk Assessment Method for Underground Engineering Fires," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(24), pages 1-26, December.
    9. Yunfeng Yang & Guohua Chen & Yuanfei Zhao, 2023. "A Quantitative Framework for Propagation Paths of Natech Domino Effects in Chemical Industrial Parks: Part I—Failure Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-17, May.
    10. Ovidi, Federica & Zhang, Laobing & Landucci, Gabriele & Reniers, Genserik, 2021. "Agent-based model and simulation of mitigated domino scenarios in chemical tank farms," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    11. Misuri, Alessio & Landucci, Gabriele & Cozzani, Valerio, 2021. "Assessment of safety barrier performance in the mitigation of domino scenarios caused by Natech events," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    12. Misuri, Alessio & Landucci, Gabriele & Cozzani, Valerio, 2021. "Assessment of risk modification due to safety barrier performance degradation in Natech events," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    13. Chang, Yuanjiang & Wu, Xiangfei & Zhang, Changshuai & Chen, Guoming & Liu, Xiuquan & Li, Jiayi & Cai, Baoping & Xu, Liangbin, 2019. "Dynamic Bayesian networks based approach for risk analysis of subsea wellhead fatigue failure during service life," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 454-462.
    14. Martin Folch-Calvo & Francisco Brocal-Fernández & Cristina González-Gaya & Miguel A. Sebastián, 2020. "Analysis and Characterization of Risk Methodologies Applied to Industrial Parks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-35, September.
    15. Ling He & Qing Yang & Xingxing Liu & Lingmei Fu & Jinmei Wang, 2021. "Exploring Factors Influencing Scenarios Evolution of Waste NIMBY Crisis: Analysis of Typical Cases in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(4), pages 1-16, February.
    16. Matteini, Anita & Argenti, Francesca & Salzano, Ernesto & Cozzani, Valerio, 2019. "A comparative analysis of security risk assessment methodologies for the chemical industry," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    17. Wu, Jiansong & Bai, Yiping & Fang, Weipeng & Zhou, Rui & Reniers, Genserik & Khakzad, Nima, 2021. "An Integrated Quantitative Risk Assessment Method for Urban Underground Utility Tunnels," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    18. Hou, Lei & Wu, Xingguang & Wu, Zhuang & Wu, Shouzhi, 2020. "Pattern identification and risk prediction of domino effect based on data mining methods for accidents occurred in the tank farm," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    19. Jinhua Mi & Yuhua Cheng & Yufei Song & Libing Bai & Kai Chen, 2022. "Application of dynamic evidential networks in reliability analysis of complex systems with epistemic uncertainty and multiple life distributions," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 311(1), pages 311-333, April.
    20. Jiansong Wu & Zhuqiang Hu & Jinyue Chen & Zheng Li, 2018. "Risk Assessment of Underground Subway Stations to Fire Disasters Using Bayesian Network," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-21, October.
    21. Hong, Bingyuan & Shao, Bowen & Guo, Jian & Fu, Jianzhong & Li, Cuicui & Zhu, Baikang, 2023. "Dynamic Bayesian network risk probability evolution for third-party damage of natural gas pipelines," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 333(C).
    22. Khakzad, Nima, 2021. "Optimal firefighting to prevent domino effects: Methodologies based on dynamic influence diagram and mathematical programming," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    23. Louis Anthony Cox, 2020. "Answerable and Unanswerable Questions in Risk Analysis with Open‐World Novelty," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(S1), pages 2144-2177, November.
    24. Lewis, Austin D. & Groth, Katrina M., 2023. "A comparison of DBN model performance in SIPPRA health monitoring based on different data stream discretization methods," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Khakzad, Nima, 2023. "A goal programming approach to multi-objective optimization of firefighting strategies in the event of domino effects," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    2. Nima Khakzad & Gabriele Landucci & Genserik Reniers, 2017. "Application of Graph Theory to Cost‐Effective Fire Protection of Chemical Plants During Domino Effects," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(9), pages 1652-1667, September.
    3. Landucci, Gabriele & Necci, Amos & Antonioni, Giacomo & Argenti, Francesca & Cozzani, Valerio, 2017. "Risk assessment of mitigated domino scenarios in process facilities," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 37-53.
    4. Misuri, Alessio & Landucci, Gabriele & Cozzani, Valerio, 2021. "Assessment of risk modification due to safety barrier performance degradation in Natech events," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    5. Misuri, Alessio & Landucci, Gabriele & Cozzani, Valerio, 2021. "Assessment of safety barrier performance in the mitigation of domino scenarios caused by Natech events," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    6. Laobing Zhang & Gabriele Landucci & Genserik Reniers & Nima Khakzad & Jianfeng Zhou, 2018. "DAMS: A Model to Assess Domino Effects by Using Agent‐Based Modeling and Simulation," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(8), pages 1585-1600, August.
    7. Khakzad, Nima, 2021. "Optimal firefighting to prevent domino effects: Methodologies based on dynamic influence diagram and mathematical programming," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    8. Khakzad, Nima, 2023. "A methodology based on Dijkstra's algorithm and mathematical programming for optimal evacuation in process plants in the event of major tank fires," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    9. Guo, Xiaoxue & Ding, Long & Ji, Jie & Cozzani, Valerio, 2022. "A cost-effective optimization model of safety investment allocation for risk reduction of domino effects," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    10. Zhou, Jianfeng & Reniers, Genserik & Cozzani, Valerio, 2023. "A Petri-net approach for firefighting force allocation analysis of fire emergency response with backups," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    11. Nima Khakzad, 2018. "Which Fire to Extinguish First? A Risk‐Informed Approach to Emergency Response in Oil Terminals," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(7), pages 1444-1454, July.
    12. Khakzad, Nima & Landucci, Gabriele & Cozzani, Valerio & Reniers, Genserik & Pasman, Hans, 2018. "Cost-effective fire protection of chemical plants against domino effects," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 412-421.
    13. Weiliang Qiao & Enze Huang & Hongtongyang Guo & Yang Liu & Xiaoxue Ma, 2022. "Barriers Involved in the Safety Management Systems: A Systematic Review of Literature," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(15), pages 1-35, August.
    14. Ovidi, Federica & Zhang, Laobing & Landucci, Gabriele & Reniers, Genserik, 2021. "Agent-based model and simulation of mitigated domino scenarios in chemical tank farms," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    15. Hou, Lei & Wu, Xingguang & Wu, Zhuang & Wu, Shouzhi, 2020. "Pattern identification and risk prediction of domino effect based on data mining methods for accidents occurred in the tank farm," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    16. Chen, Chao & Yang, Ming & Reniers, Genserik, 2021. "A dynamic stochastic methodology for quantifying HAZMAT storage resilience," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    17. Zhou, Jianfeng & Reniers, Genserik & Khakzad, Nima, 2016. "Application of event sequence diagram to evaluate emergency response actions during fire-induced domino effects," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 202-209.
    18. Misuri, Alessio & Landucci, Gabriele & Cozzani, Valerio, 2020. "Assessment of safety barrier performance in Natech scenarios," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    19. Chen, Chao & Reniers, Genserik & Khakzad, Nima, 2019. "Integrating safety and security resources to protect chemical industrial parks from man-made domino effects: A dynamic graph approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    20. Yunfeng Yang & Guohua Chen & Yuanfei Zhao, 2023. "A Quantitative Framework for Propagation Paths of Natech Domino Effects in Chemical Industrial Parks: Part II—Risk Assessment and Mitigation System," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-19, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:167:y:2017:i:c:p:232-247. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.