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Quantitative assessment of domino effect and escalation scenarios caused by fragment projection

Author

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  • Tugnoli, Alessandro
  • Scarponi, Giordano Emrys
  • Antonioni, Giacomo
  • Cozzani, Valerio

Abstract

Fragment projection from equipment failure has been extensively recognized as a cause of cascading events and of severe domino scenarios. In recent years several mathematical models suitable for the quantitative assessment of risk due to domino effects and cascading events were developed and validated, but a systematic methodology for quantitative risk assessment caused by fragment projection and impact is still missing. In the present study, a step-by-step approach is proposed for the assessment of domino risk indices due to fragment projection. The approach builds on available sub-models for the quantitative assessment of fragment generation, impact and damage probabilities. Altogether, the proposed model supports a quantification of the risk due to escalation triggered by fragment impact that can be easily automated and integrated in risk assessment studies.

Suggested Citation

  • Tugnoli, Alessandro & Scarponi, Giordano Emrys & Antonioni, Giacomo & Cozzani, Valerio, 2022. "Quantitative assessment of domino effect and escalation scenarios caused by fragment projection," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:217:y:2022:i:c:s0951832021005615
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2021.108059
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Necci, Amos & Cozzani, Valerio & Spadoni, Gigliola & Khan, Faisal, 2015. "Assessment of domino effect: State of the art and research Needs," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 3-18.
    2. Khakzad, Nima & Reniers, Genserik, 2015. "Using graph theory to analyze the vulnerability of process plants in the context of cascading effects," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 63-73.
    3. Alileche, Nassim & Cozzani, Valerio & Reniers, Genserik & Estel, Lionel, 2015. "Thresholds for domino effects and safety distances in the process industry: A review of approaches and regulations," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 74-84.
    4. Landucci, Gabriele & Necci, Amos & Antonioni, Giacomo & Argenti, Francesca & Cozzani, Valerio, 2017. "Risk assessment of mitigated domino scenarios in process facilities," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 37-53.
    5. Ding, Long & Khan, Faisal & Ji, Jie, 2020. "A novel approach for domino effects modeling and risk analysis based on synergistic effect and accident evidence," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    6. Ding, Long & Khan, Faisal & Abbassi, Rouzbeh & Ji, Jie, 2019. "FSEM: An approach to model contribution of synergistic effect of fires for domino effects," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 271-278.
    7. Chen, Chao & Reniers, Genserik & Khakzad, Nima, 2019. "Integrating safety and security resources to protect chemical industrial parks from man-made domino effects: A dynamic graph approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    8. Khakzad, Nima, 2015. "Application of dynamic Bayesian network to risk analysis of domino effects in chemical infrastructures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 263-272.
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