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Combining precursor incidents investigations and QRA in oil and gas industry

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  • Skogdalen, Jon Espen
  • Vinnem, Jan Erik

Abstract

Accident investigation is the collection and examination of facts related to an occurred specific incident. Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA) is the systematic use of available information to identify hazards and probabilities, and to predict the possible consequences to individuals or populations, property or the environment. Traditionally both methods have been used separately; however both accident investigation and QRA describe hazards in a systematic way. The extensive research that is done related to that including human and organisational factors in QRA brings accident investigation and QRA closer together. Every year there are a large number of precursor incidents recorded with the potential to cause major accidents risks in the North Sea oil and gas industry. This article describes how accident investigation and QRA can be combined using available information from a precursor incident as input to QRA-methodology to identify hazards, probabilities, safety barriers and possible consequences. The combined method is shortened as QRA PII (Quantitative Risk Analysis Precursor Incident Investigation) and makes use of well known hazard analysis techniques to produce a more complete cause and risk picture in complex systems. This includes an extended understanding of human and organisational factors in accidents and prevention of these.

Suggested Citation

  • Skogdalen, Jon Espen & Vinnem, Jan Erik, 2012. "Combining precursor incidents investigations and QRA in oil and gas industry," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 48-58.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:101:y:2012:i:c:p:48-58
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2011.12.009
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Skogdalen, Jon Espen & Vinnem, Jan Erik, 2011. "Quantitative risk analysis offshore—Human and organizational factors," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(4), pages 468-479.
    2. Jan Erik Vinnem, 2007. "Offshore Risk Assessment," Springer Series in Reliability Engineering, Springer, edition 2, number 978-1-84628-717-6, December.
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    6. Vinnem, Jan Erik & Hestad, Jon Andreas & Kvaløy, Jan Terje & Skogdalen, Jon Espen, 2010. "Analysis of root causes of major hazard precursors (hydrocarbon leaks) in the Norwegian offshore petroleum industry," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(11), pages 1142-1153.
    7. Karl E. Weick & Kathleen M. Sutcliffe & David Obstfeld, 2005. "Organizing and the Process of Sensemaking," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 16(4), pages 409-421, August.
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    3. Khakzad, Nima & Khan, Faisal & Paltrinieri, Nicola, 2014. "On the application of near accident data to risk analysis of major accidents," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 116-125.
    4. Xie, Shuyi & Huang, Zimeng & Wu, Gang & Luo, Jinheng & Li, Lifeng & Ma, Weifeng & Wang, Bohong, 2024. "Combining precursor and Cloud Leaky noisy-OR logic gate Bayesian network for dynamic probability analysis of major accidents in the oil depots," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    5. Majeed Abimbola & Faisal Khan, 2018. "Dynamic Blowout Risk Analysis Using Loss Functions," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(2), pages 255-271, February.
    6. IAIANI, Matteo & TUGNOLI, Alessandro & BONVICINI, Sarah & COZZANI, Valerio, 2021. "Analysis of Cybersecurity-related Incidents in the Process Industry," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    7. Chen, Yinuo & Tian, Zhigang & He, Rui & Wang, Yifei & Xie, Shuyi, 2023. "Discovery of potential risks for the gas transmission station using monitoring data and the OOBN method," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).

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