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Marine traffic risk modelling – an innovative approach and a case study

Author

Listed:
  • J Montewka
  • P Krata
  • F Goerlandt
  • A Mazaheri
  • P Kujala

Abstract

This paper presents a model to analyse the risk of two common marine accidents: collision and grounding. Attention is focused on oil tankers since they pose the highest environmental risks. A case study in selected areas of the Gulf of Finland in ice-free conditions is presented. The model utilizes a formula for risk calculation that considers both the probability of an unwanted event and its consequences. The model can be decomposed into a block representation in which blocks for the probability of a collision, probability of a grounding event, and the consequences of an accident are linked. The probability of vessel colliding is assessed in terms of a minimum-distance-to-collision-based model. The model defines the collision zone using a mathematical ship motion model and considers the traffic flow to be a non-homogeneous process. Calculations are performed using data for traffic flows in the Gulf of Finland with particular attention being paid to the crossing of the channel used by scheduled ferries between Helsinki and Tallinn, and the main shipping channel. For the assessment of a grounding probability, a new approach is proposed, which utilizes a gravity-like model, where a ship and navigational obstructions are perceived as interacting objects and their repulsion is modelled by a formulation inspired by gravitational force. The considered situation in this case is the movement of oil tankers in the approach channel to an oil terminal at Sköldvik, near Helsinki. The consequences of an accident are expressed in monetary terms, and concern the costs of cleaning up an oil spill, based on the statistics of compensation levels claimed from the International Oil Pollution Compensation Fund.

Suggested Citation

  • J Montewka & P Krata & F Goerlandt & A Mazaheri & P Kujala, 2011. "Marine traffic risk modelling – an innovative approach and a case study," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 225(3), pages 307-322, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:risrel:v:225:y:2011:i:3:p:307-322
    DOI: 10.1177/1748006X11399988
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Johan R. Van Dorp & Jason R. W. Merrick & John R. Harrald & Thomas A. Mazzuchi & Martha Grabowski, 2001. "A Risk Management Procedure for the Washington State Ferries," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 21(1), pages 127-142, February.
    2. Goerlandt, Floris & Kujala, Pentti, 2011. "Traffic simulation based ship collision probability modeling," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 91-107.
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    9. Jason R. W. Merrick & J. René van Dorp & Thomas Mazzuchi & John R. Harrald & John E. Spahn & Martha Grabowski, 2002. "The Prince William Sound Risk Assessment," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 32(6), pages 25-40, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Montewka, Jakub & Ehlers, Sören & Goerlandt, Floris & Hinz, Tomasz & Tabri, Kristjan & Kujala, Pentti, 2014. "A framework for risk assessment for maritime transportation systems—A case study for open sea collisions involving RoPax vessels," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 142-157.
    2. Gino J. Lim & Jaeyoung Cho & Selim Bora & Taofeek Biobaku & Hamid Parsaei, 2018. "Models and computational algorithms for maritime risk analysis: a review," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 271(2), pages 765-786, December.
    3. Goerlandt, Floris & Montewka, Jakub, 2015. "Maritime transportation risk analysis: Review and analysis in light of some foundational issues," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 115-134.

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