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Quantitative risk analysis offshore—Human and organizational factors

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  • Skogdalen, Jon Espen
  • Vinnem, Jan Erik

Abstract

Quantitative Risk Analyses (QRAs) are one of the main tools for risk management within the Norwegian and UK oil and gas industry. Much criticism has been given to the limitations related to the QRA-models and that the QRAs do not include human and organizational factors (HOF-factors). Norway and UK offshore legislation and guidelines require that the HOF-factors are included in the QRAs. A study of 15 QRAs shows that the factors are to some extent included, and there are large differences between the QRAs. The QRAs are categorized into four levels according to the findings. Level 1 QRAs do not describe or comment on the HOF-factors at all. Relevant research projects have been conducted to fulfill the requirements of Level 3 analyses. At this level, there is a systematic collection of data related to HOF. The methods are systematic and documented, and the QRAs are adjusted. None of the QRAs fulfill the Level 4 requirements. Level 4 QRAs include the model and describe the HOF-factors as well as explain how the results should be followed up in the overall risk management. Safety audits by regulatory authorities are probably necessary to point out the direction for QRA and speed up the development.

Suggested Citation

  • Skogdalen, Jon Espen & Vinnem, Jan Erik, 2011. "Quantitative risk analysis offshore—Human and organizational factors," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(4), pages 468-479.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:96:y:2011:i:4:p:468-479
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2010.12.013
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jan Erik Vinnem & Jayantha P. Liyanage, 2008. "Human-Technical Interface of Collision Risk Under Dynamic Conditions: An Exploratory Learning Case from the North Sea," International Journal of Technology and Human Interaction (IJTHI), IGI Global, vol. 4(1), pages 35-47, January.
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    3. Mohaghegh, Zahra & Kazemi, Reza & Mosleh, Ali, 2009. "Incorporating organizational factors into Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of complex socio-technical systems: A hybrid technique formalization," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(5), pages 1000-1018.
    4. Aven, Terje & Heide, Bjørnar, 2009. "Reliability and validity of risk analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(11), pages 1862-1868.
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    9. Skogdalen, Jon Espen & Vinnem, Jan Erik, 2012. "Quantitative risk analysis of oil and gas drilling, using Deepwater Horizon as case study," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 58-66.
    10. Lam, C.Y. & Cruz, A.M., 2019. "Risk analysis for consumer-level utility gas and liquefied petroleum gas incidents using probabilistic network modeling: A case study of gas incidents in Japan," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 198-212.
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