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Investigating the sustainability of the global silver supply, reserves, stocks in society and market price using different approaches

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  • Sverdrup, Harald
  • Koca, Deniz
  • Ragnarsdottir, Kristin Vala

Abstract

The authors have collected data for the silver market, shedding light on market size, stocks in society and silver flows in society. The world supply from mining, depletion of the remaining reserves, reducing ore grades, market price and turnover of silver was simulated using the SILVER model developed for this study. The model combines mining, trade markets, price mechanisms, populations dynamics, use in society and waste and recycling into an integrated system. At the same time the degree of sustainability and resource time horizon was estimated using different methods such as: 1: burn-off rates, 2: peak discovery early warning, 3: Hubbert's production model, and 4: System dynamic modelling. The Hubbert's model was run for the period of 6000BC–3000AD, the SILVER system dynamics model was run for the time range 1840–2340. We have estimated that the ultimately recoverable reserves of silver are in the range 2.7–3.1 million tonne silver at present, of which approximately 1.35–1.46 million tonne have already been mined. The timing estimate range for peak silver production is narrow, in the range 2027–2038, with the best estimate in 2034. By 2240, all silver mines will be nearly empty and exhausted. The outputs from all models converge to emphasize the importance of consistent recycling and the avoidance of irreversible losses to make society more sustainable with respect to silver market supply.

Suggested Citation

  • Sverdrup, Harald & Koca, Deniz & Ragnarsdottir, Kristin Vala, 2014. "Investigating the sustainability of the global silver supply, reserves, stocks in society and market price using different approaches," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 121-140.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:recore:v:83:y:2014:i:c:p:121-140
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2013.12.008
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kristin Vala Ragnarsdottir, 2012. "Assessing Long Term Sustainability of Global Supply of Natural Resources and Materials," Chapters, in: Chaouki Ghenai (ed.), Sustainable Development - Energy, Engineering and Technologies - Manufacturing and Environment, IntechOpen.
    2. Radetzki,Marian, 2008. "A Handbook of Primary Commodities in the Global Economy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521880206, Junio.
    3. C. C. Patterson, 1972. "Silver Stocks and Losses in Ancient and Medieval Times," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 25(2), pages 205-233, May.
    4. Modin-Edman, Anna-Karin & Oborn, Ingrid & Sverdrup, Harald, 2007. "FARMFLOW--A dynamic model for phosphorus mass flow, simulating conventional and organic management of a Swedish dairy farm," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 431-444, May.
    5. Ciacci, Luca & Chen, Weiqiang & Passarini, Fabrizio & Eckelman, Matthew & Vassura, Ivano & Morselli, Luciano, 2013. "Historical evolution of anthropogenic aluminum stocks and flows in Italy," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 1-8.
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    1. Sverdrup, Harald U. & Ragnarsdottir, Kristin Vala, 2016. "A system dynamics model for platinum group metal supply, market price, depletion of extractable amounts, ore grade, recycling and stocks-in-use," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 130-152.
    2. Sverdrup, Harald U. & Ragnarsdottir, Kristin Vala & Koca, Deniz, 2015. "Aluminium for the future: Modelling the global production, market supply, demand, price and long term development of the global reserves," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 139-154.
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