IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/proeco/v121y2009i2p739-751.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impact of market demand mis-specification on a two-level supply chain

Author

Listed:
  • Hosoda, Takamichi
  • Disney, Stephen M.

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of mis-specifying the market demand process on a serially linked two-level supply chain. Box-Jenkins models are used to represent both the true and a mis-specified market demand processes. It is shown that the impact of mis-specification on cost is minor if the supply chain tries to minimise the market demand forecast errors. Furthermore, our analysis suggests that mis-specification does not always result in additional costs. A managerial insight is revealed; poor forecast accuracy is not always bad for the total supply chain costs. In other words, employing more accurate forecasting methods may actually result in higher total supply chain costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Hosoda, Takamichi & Disney, Stephen M., 2009. "Impact of market demand mis-specification on a two-level supply chain," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(2), pages 739-751, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:proeco:v:121:y:2009:i:2:p:739-751
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0925-5273(09)00134-0
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hau L. Lee & Kut C. So & Christopher S. Tang, 2000. "The Value of Information Sharing in a Two-Level Supply Chain," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(5), pages 626-643, May.
    2. Zhang, Xiaolong, 2004. "The impact of forecasting methods on the bullwhip effect," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 15-27, March.
    3. Kenneth Gilbert, 2005. "An ARIMA Supply Chain Model," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(2), pages 305-310, February.
    4. Hau L. Lee & V. Padmanabhan & Seungjin Whang, 1997. "Information Distortion in a Supply Chain: The Bullwhip Effect," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 43(4), pages 546-558, April.
    5. Stephen C. Graves, 1999. "Addendum to "A Single-Item Inventory Model for a Nonstationary Demand Process"," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 1(2), pages 174-174.
    6. Hosoda, Takamichi & Disney, Stephen M., 2006. "On variance amplification in a three-echelon supply chain with minimum mean square error forecasting," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 344-358, August.
    7. Disney, S.M. & Farasyn, I. & Lambrecht, M. & Towill, D.R. & de Velde, W. Van, 2006. "Taming the bullwhip effect whilst watching customer service in a single supply chain echelon," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 173(1), pages 151-172, August.
    8. Fangruo Chen, 1999. "Decentralized Supply Chains Subject to Information Delays," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 45(8), pages 1076-1090, August.
    9. G. D. Johnson & H. E. Thompson, 1975. "Optimality of Myopic Inventory Policies for Certain Dependent Demand Processes," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 21(11), pages 1303-1307, July.
    10. Xu, Kefeng & Dong, Yan & Evers, Philip T., 2001. "Towards better coordination of the supply chain," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 35-54, March.
    11. Gavirneni, Srinagesh, 2006. "Price fluctuations, information sharing, and supply chain performance," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 174(3), pages 1651-1663, November.
    12. Lingxiu Dong & Hau L. Lee, 2003. "Optimal Policies and Approximations for a Serial Multiechelon Inventory System with Time-Correlated Demand," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 51(6), pages 969-980, December.
    13. Kahn, James A, 1987. "Inventories and the Volatility of Production," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 667-679, September.
    14. Donna F. Davis & John T. Mentzer & Teresa M. Mccarthy & Susan L. Golicic, 2006. "The evolution of sales forecasting management: a 20-year longitudinal study of forecasting practices," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(5), pages 303-324.
    15. Stephen C. Graves, 1999. "A Single-Item Inventory Model for a Nonstationary Demand Process," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 1(1), pages 50-61.
    16. Herbert J. Vassian, 1955. "Application of Discrete Variable Servo Theory to Inventory Control," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 3(3), pages 272-282, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fan, Chin-Yuan & Fan, Pei-Shu & Chang, Pei-Chann, 2010. "A system dynamics modeling approach for a military weapon maintenance supply system," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(2), pages 457-469, December.
    2. Hosoda, Takamichi & Disney, Stephen M., 2012. "On the replenishment policy when the market demand information is lagged," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1), pages 458-467.
    3. Zhu, Xiaowei & Mukhopadhyay, Samar K. & Yue, Xiaohang, 2011. "Role of forecast effort on supply chain profitability under various information sharing scenarios," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(2), pages 284-291, February.
    4. Boute, Robert N. & Disney, Stephen M. & Lambrecht, Marc R. & Houdt, Benny Van, 2014. "Coordinating lead times and safety stocks under autocorrelated demand," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 232(1), pages 52-63.
    5. Wang, Xun & Disney, Stephen M. & Wang, Jing, 2014. "Exploring the oscillatory dynamics of a forbidden returns inventory system," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(PA), pages 3-12.
    6. Ponte, Borja & Framinan, Jose M. & Cannella, Salvatore & Dominguez, Roberto, 2020. "Quantifying the Bullwhip Effect in closed-loop supply chains: The interplay of information transparencies, return rates, and lead times," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    7. Hedenstierna, Carl Philip T. & Disney, Stephen M., 2016. "Inventory performance under staggered deliveries and autocorrelated demand," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(3), pages 1082-1091.
    8. Chiang, Chung-Yean & Lin, Winston T. & Suresh, Nallan C., 2016. "An empirically-simulated investigation of the impact of demand forecasting on the bullwhip effect: Evidence from U.S. auto industry," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 53-65.
    9. Beutel, Anna-Lena & Minner, Stefan, 2012. "Safety stock planning under causal demand forecasting," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 637-645.
    10. Ali, Mohammad M. & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Boylan, John E. & Syntetos, A.A., 2017. "Supply chain forecasting when information is not shared," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 260(3), pages 984-994.
    11. Hosoda, Takamichi & Disney, Stephen M., 2012. "A delayed demand supply chain: Incentives for upstream players," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 478-487.
    12. Warren Liao, T. & Chang, P.C., 2010. "Impacts of forecast, inventory policy, and lead time on supply chain inventory--A numerical study," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(2), pages 527-537, December.
    13. Disney, Stephen M. & Gaalman, Gerard J.C. & Hedenstierna, Carl Philip T. & Hosoda, Takamichi, 2015. "Fill rate in a periodic review order-up-to policy under auto-correlated normally distributed, possibly negative, demand," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(PB), pages 501-512.
    14. Pastore, Erica & Alfieri, Arianna & Zotteri, Giulio & Boylan, John E., 2020. "The impact of demand parameter uncertainty on the bullwhip effect," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 283(1), pages 94-107.
    15. Rostami-Tabar, Bahman & Disney, Stephen M., 2023. "On the order-up-to policy with intermittent integer demand and logically consistent forecasts," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 257(C).
    16. Sachs, Anna-Lena & Minner, Stefan, 2014. "The data-driven newsvendor with censored demand observations," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 28-36.
    17. Wang, Xun & Disney, Stephen M., 2016. "The bullwhip effect: Progress, trends and directions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 250(3), pages 691-701.
    18. Hosoda, Takamichi & Disney, Stephen M. & Gavirneni, Srinagesh, 2015. "The impact of information sharing, random yield, correlation, and lead times in closed loop supply chains," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 246(3), pages 827-836.
    19. Wang, Xun & Disney, Stephen M. & Wang, Jing, 2012. "Stability analysis of constrained inventory systems with transportation delay," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 223(1), pages 86-95.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Xun & Disney, Stephen M., 2016. "The bullwhip effect: Progress, trends and directions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 250(3), pages 691-701.
    2. Duc, Truong Ton Hien & Luong, Huynh Trung & Kim, Yeong-Dae, 2008. "A measure of bullwhip effect in supply chains with a mixed autoregressive-moving average demand process," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 187(1), pages 243-256, May.
    3. Li Chen & Hau L. Lee, 2009. "Information Sharing and Order Variability Control Under a Generalized Demand Model," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(5), pages 781-797, May.
    4. Ma, Yungao & Wang, Nengmin & He, Zhengwen & Lu, Jizhou & Liang, Huigang, 2015. "Analysis of the bullwhip effect in two parallel supply chains with interacting price-sensitive demands," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 243(3), pages 815-825.
    5. Layth C. Alwan & Christian H. Weiß, 2017. "INAR implementation of newsvendor model for serially dependent demand counts," International Journal of Production Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(4), pages 1085-1099, February.
    6. M M Ali & J E Boylan, 2011. "Feasibility principles for Downstream Demand Inference in supply chains," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 62(3), pages 474-482, March.
    7. Ouyang, Yanfeng & Li, Xiaopeng, 2010. "The bullwhip effect in supply chain networks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 201(3), pages 799-810, March.
    8. Hosoda, Takamichi & Disney, Stephen M., 2006. "On variance amplification in a three-echelon supply chain with minimum mean square error forecasting," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 344-358, August.
    9. Junhai Ma & Jing Zhang & Liqing Zhu, 2018. "Study of the Bullwhip Effect under Various Forecasting Methods in Electronics Supply Chain with Dual Retailers considering Market Share," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2018, pages 1-19, January.
    10. Boute, Robert N. & Disney, Stephen M. & Lambrecht, Marc R. & Houdt, Benny Van, 2014. "Coordinating lead times and safety stocks under autocorrelated demand," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 232(1), pages 52-63.
    11. Agrawal, Sunil & Sengupta, Raghu Nandan & Shanker, Kripa, 2009. "Impact of information sharing and lead time on bullwhip effect and on-hand inventory," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 576-593, January.
    12. Pastore, Erica & Alfieri, Arianna & Zotteri, Giulio & Boylan, John E., 2020. "The impact of demand parameter uncertainty on the bullwhip effect," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 283(1), pages 94-107.
    13. K. Devika & A. Jafarian & A. Hassanzadeh & R. Khodaverdi, 2016. "Optimizing of bullwhip effect and net stock amplification in three-echelon supply chains using evolutionary multi-objective metaheuristics," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 242(2), pages 457-487, July.
    14. Zhang, Xiaolong & Burke, Gerard J., 2011. "Analysis of compound bullwhip effect causes," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 210(3), pages 514-526, May.
    15. Sodhi, ManMohan S. & Tang, Christopher S., 2011. "The incremental bullwhip effect of operational deviations in an arborescent supply chain with requirements planning," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 215(2), pages 374-382, December.
    16. Li Chen & Wei Luo & Kevin Shang, 2017. "Measuring the Bullwhip Effect: Discrepancy and Alignment Between Information and Material Flows," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 19(1), pages 36-51, February.
    17. Tliche, Y. & Taghipour, A. & Canel-Depitre, B., 2019. "Downstream Demand Inference in decentralized supply chains," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 274(1), pages 65-77.
    18. Rupesh Kumar Pati, 2014. "Modelling Bullwhip Effect in a Closed Loop Supply Chain with ARMA Demand," IIM Kozhikode Society & Management Review, , vol. 3(2), pages 149-164, July.
    19. Junhai Ma & Xiaogang Ma, 2017. "Measure of the bullwhip effect considering the market competition between two retailers," International Journal of Production Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(2), pages 313-326, January.
    20. Nepal, Bimal & Murat, Alper & Babu Chinnam, Ratna, 2012. "The bullwhip effect in capacitated supply chains with consideration for product life-cycle aspects," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 318-331.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:proeco:v:121:y:2009:i:2:p:739-751. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijpe .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.