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Intergovernmental transfers and political competition measured by pivotal probability - Evidence from Hungary

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  • Gregor, András

Abstract

I estimate the effects of political competition on the allocation of intergovernmental transfers to Hungarian municipalities between 1998 and 2006. The intergovernmental transfers were intended to finance schooling, elder care, and administrative needs in municipalities. Rather than use closeness of the dominant blocks' vote share, which is the standard measure of political competition, I instead employ (Myerson, 2000)'s pivotal probabilities, calculated at the municipality level. As a result, the number of voters, in addition to the vote difference, is taken into account when describing political competition at the municipal level. I argue that under mixed-member proportional systems, as well as under proportional systems in general, pivotal probability reflects the political reality better than closeness can. I find evidence that swing municipalities in villages are targeted and, ceteris paribus, that poorer regions receive larger transfer amounts than other areas.

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  • Gregor, András, 2020. "Intergovernmental transfers and political competition measured by pivotal probability - Evidence from Hungary," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:poleco:v:62:y:2020:i:c:s017626801930494x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2019.101841
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    1. Vasvári, Tamás & Pocsai, Erzsébet, 2024. "Kontrollok az önkormányzati hitelezésben - az elmúlt évtized tanulságai [Controls in municipal borrowing in Hungary - A decade of experience]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(9), pages 881-914.
    2. Ilya A. Vaskin, 2020. "Buying Loyalty Of Voters Or Local Elites? Political Alignment And Transfers To Provinces In Tutelary Regimes: The Case Of Iran," HSE Working papers WP BRP 73/PS/2020, National Research University Higher School of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Probabilistic voting; Grants; Intergovernmental relations; Political economy; Hungary;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H72 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Budget and Expenditures
    • H77 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - Intergovernmental Relations; Federalism
    • D78 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation

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