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How the Electoral College Influences Campaigns and Policy: The Probability of Being Florida

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  • David Stromberg

Abstract

This paper analyzes how US presidential candidates should allocate resources across states to maximize the probability of winning the election, by developing and estimating a probabilistic-voting model of political competition under the Electoral College system. Actual campaigns act in close agreement with the model. There is a 0.9 correlation between equilibrium and actual presidential campaign visits across states, both in 2000 and 2004. The paper shows how presidential candidate attention is affected by the states' number of electoral votes, forecasted state-election outcomes, and forecast uncertainty. It also analyzes the effects of a direct national popular vote for president.

Suggested Citation

  • David Stromberg, 2008. "How the Electoral College Influences Campaigns and Policy: The Probability of Being Florida," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 769-807, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:98:y:2008:i:3:p:769-807
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.98.3.769
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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    This item is featured on the following reading lists, Wikipedia, or ReplicationWiki pages:
    1. How the Electoral College Influences Campaigns and Policy: The Probability of Being Florida (AER 2008) in ReplicationWiki
    2. Economic Logic blog

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