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Incumbency advantage in a proportional electoral system: A regression discontinuity analysis of Irish elections

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  • Redmond, Paul
  • Regan, John

Abstract

The existence of a large incumbency advantage in the winner-takes-all plurality system of the United States is well documented. It is unclear whether incumbents in proportional systems should enjoy such a large advantage. Multi-seat constituencies make it difficult for individual incumbents to claim credit for the provision of local public goods and services. Moreover, multiple incumbents may dilute media attention thereby limiting name recognition advantage. We use a regression discontinuity design to estimate the causal effect of incumbency using election data from Ireland’s system of proportional representation with a single transferable vote (PR-STV). Incumbency causes an eighteen percentage point increase in the probability that a candidate in Ireland’s lower house of parliament wins a seat in the next election. Our results indicate that the protection of vulnerable incumbents from intra-party competition may be a source of incumbency advantage in multi-member district elections.

Suggested Citation

  • Redmond, Paul & Regan, John, 2015. "Incumbency advantage in a proportional electoral system: A regression discontinuity analysis of Irish elections," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 244-256.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:poleco:v:38:y:2015:i:c:p:244-256
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2015.03.002
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    3. Jekaterina Kuliomina, 2016. "Does Election of an Additional Female Councilor Increase Women's Candidacy in the Future?," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp559, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    4. Jekaterina Kuliomina, 2018. "Does Election of an Additional Female Councilor Increase Women's Candidacy in the Future?," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 15(1), pages 37-81, June.
    5. Song, B.K., 2020. "The effect of public financing on candidate reemergence and success in elections," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    6. Leandro de Magalhaes & Salomo Hirvonen, 2019. "The Incumbent-Challenger Advantage and the Winner-Runner-up Advantage," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 19/710, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    7. Song, B.K., 2022. "The longer-term electoral effect of carrying a state in U.S. presidential elections," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    8. Ercio Andres Munoz, 2021. "Incumbency advantage, money, and campaigns: A note on some suggestive evidence from Chile," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(3), pages 1203-1211.
    9. Whelan, Adele & McGuinness, Seamus & Barrett, Alan, 2021. "Review of International Approaches to Evaluating Rural and Community Development Investment and Supports," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS124.
    10. Ari Hyytinen & Jaakko Meriläinen & Tuukka Saarimaa & Otto Toivanen & Janne Tukiainen, 2018. "When does regression discontinuity design work? Evidence from random election outcomes," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 9(2), pages 1019-1051, July.
    11. Galasso, Vincenzo & Dano, Kevin & Ferlenga, Francesco & LePennec, Caroline & Pons, Vincent, 2022. "Coordination and Incumbency Advantage in Multi-Party Systems - Evidence from French Elections," CEPR Discussion Papers 17600, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Jonatan Lautenschlage & Linda G. Veiga & Francisco J. Veiga, 2024. "The effects of fiscal policy management, candidacy of previous mayors, and illiteracy on mayoral reelection in Brazil," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(3), pages 1345-1381, November.
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    14. Baghdasaryan, Vardan & Iannantuoni, Giovanna & Maggian, Valeria, 2019. "Electoral fraud and voter turnout: An experimental study," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 203-219.

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    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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