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An agent based multi-optional model for the diffusion of innovations

Listed author(s):
  • Laciana, Carlos E.
  • Oteiza-Aguirre, Nicolás
Registered author(s):

    We propose a model for the diffusion of several products competing in a common market based on the generalization of the Ising model of statistical mechanics (Potts model). Using an agent based implementation we analyze two problems: (i) a three options case, i.e. to adopt a product A, a product B, or non-adoption and (ii) a four option case, i.e. the adoption of product A, product B, both, or none. In the first case we analyze a launching strategy for one of the two products, which delays its launching with the objective of competing with improvements. Market shares reached by each product are then estimated at market saturation. Finally, simulations are carried out with varying degrees of social network topology, uncertainty, and population homogeneity.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437113009230
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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications.

    Volume (Year): 394 (2014)
    Issue (Month): C ()
    Pages: 254-265

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:394:y:2014:i:c:p:254-265
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2013.09.046
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/

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    1. Vega-Redondo,Fernando, 2007. "Complex Social Networks," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521857406, December.
    2. Frank M. Bass, 1969. "A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(5), pages 215-227, January.
    3. Laciana, Carlos E. & Rovere, Santiago L. & Podestá, Guillermo P., 2013. "Exploring associations between micro-level models of innovation diffusion and emerging macro-level adoption patterns," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(8), pages 1873-1884.
    4. Shantanu Bhattacharya & V. Krishnan & Vijay Mahajan, 1998. "Managing New Product Definition in Highly Dynamic Environments," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(11-Part-2), pages 50-64, November.
    5. Schoemaker, Paul J H, 1982. "The Expected Utility Model: Its Variants, Purposes, Evidence and Limitations," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 20(2), pages 529-563, June.
    6. Frank M. Bass, 2004. "A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(12_supple), pages 1825-1832, December.
    7. Grabowski, A. & Kosiński, R.A., 2006. "Ising-based model of opinion formation in a complex network of interpersonal interactions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 361(2), pages 651-664.
    8. Geroski, P. A., 2000. "Models of technology diffusion," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(4-5), pages 603-625, April.
    9. Frank M. Bass, 2004. "Comments on "A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables The Bass Model"," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(12_supple), pages 1833-1840, December.
    10. Vega-Redondo,Fernando, 2007. "Complex Social Networks," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521674096, December.
    11. Laciana, Carlos E. & Rovere, Santiago L., 2011. "Ising-like agent-based technology diffusion model: Adoption patterns vs. seeding strategies," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(6), pages 1139-1149.
    12. Machina, Mark J, 1987. "Choice under Uncertainty: Problems Solved and Unsolved," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 121-154, Summer.
    13. Galam, Serge, 1997. "Rational group decision making: A random field Ising model at T = 0," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 238(1), pages 66-80.
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