IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/phsmap/v394y2014icp254-265.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An agent based multi-optional model for the diffusion of innovations

Author

Listed:
  • Laciana, Carlos E.
  • Oteiza-Aguirre, Nicolás

Abstract

We propose a model for the diffusion of several products competing in a common market based on the generalization of the Ising model of statistical mechanics (Potts model). Using an agent based implementation we analyze two problems: (i) a three options case, i.e. to adopt a product A, a product B, or non-adoption and (ii) a four option case, i.e. the adoption of product A, product B, both, or none. In the first case we analyze a launching strategy for one of the two products, which delays its launching with the objective of competing with improvements. Market shares reached by each product are then estimated at market saturation. Finally, simulations are carried out with varying degrees of social network topology, uncertainty, and population homogeneity.

Suggested Citation

  • Laciana, Carlos E. & Oteiza-Aguirre, Nicolás, 2014. "An agent based multi-optional model for the diffusion of innovations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 394(C), pages 254-265.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:394:y:2014:i:c:p:254-265
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2013.09.046
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437113009230
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vega-Redondo,Fernando, 2007. "Complex Social Networks," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521857406.
    2. Frank M. Bass, 1969. "A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(5), pages 215-227, January.
    3. Laciana, Carlos E. & Rovere, Santiago L. & Podestá, Guillermo P., 2013. "Exploring associations between micro-level models of innovation diffusion and emerging macro-level adoption patterns," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(8), pages 1873-1884.
    4. Shantanu Bhattacharya & V. Krishnan & Vijay Mahajan, 1998. "Managing New Product Definition in Highly Dynamic Environments," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(11-Part-2), pages 50-64, November.
    5. Schoemaker, Paul J H, 1982. "The Expected Utility Model: Its Variants, Purposes, Evidence and Limitations," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 20(2), pages 529-563, June.
    6. Frank M. Bass, 2004. "A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(12_supple), pages 1825-1832, December.
    7. Grabowski, A. & Kosiński, R.A., 2006. "Ising-based model of opinion formation in a complex network of interpersonal interactions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 361(2), pages 651-664.
    8. Geroski, P. A., 2000. "Models of technology diffusion," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(4-5), pages 603-625, April.
    9. repec:eee:ijrema:v:27:y:2010:i:2:p:91-106 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Frank M. Bass, 2004. "Comments on "A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables The Bass Model"," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(12_supple), pages 1833-1840, December.
    11. Vega-Redondo,Fernando, 2007. "Complex Social Networks," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521674096.
    12. Laciana, Carlos E. & Rovere, Santiago L., 2011. "Ising-like agent-based technology diffusion model: Adoption patterns vs. seeding strategies," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(6), pages 1139-1149.
    13. Machina, Mark J, 1987. "Choice under Uncertainty: Problems Solved and Unsolved," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 121-154, Summer.
    14. Galam, Serge, 1997. "Rational group decision making: A random field Ising model at T = 0," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 238(1), pages 66-80.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hurmekoski, Elias & Jonsson, Ragnar & Nord, Tomas, 2015. "Context, drivers, and future potential for wood-frame multi-story construction in Europe," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 181-196.
    2. Laciana, C.E. & Gual, G. & Kalmus, D. & Oteiza-Aguirre, N. & Rovere, S.L., 2014. "Diffusion of two brands in competition: Cross-brand effect," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 413(C), pages 104-115.
    3. Koponen, I.T. & Kokkonen, T. & Nousiainen, M., 2017. "Modelling sociocognitive aspects of students’ learning," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 470(C), pages 68-81.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:394:y:2014:i:c:p:254-265. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.