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Scaling laws in the dynamics of crime growth rate

Author

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  • Alves, Luiz G.A.
  • Ribeiro, Haroldo V.
  • Mendes, Renio S.

Abstract

The increasing number of crimes in areas with large concentrations of people have made cities one of the main sources of violence. Understanding characteristics of how crime rate expands and its relations with the cities size goes beyond an academic question, being a central issue for contemporary society. Here, we characterize and analyze quantitative aspects of murders in the period from 1980 to 2009 in Brazilian cities. We find that the distribution of the annual, biannual and triannual logarithmic homicide growth rates exhibit the same functional form for distinct scales, that is, a scale invariant behavior. We also identify asymptotic power-law decay relations between the standard deviations of these three growth rates and the initial size. Further, we discuss similarities with complex organizations.

Suggested Citation

  • Alves, Luiz G.A. & Ribeiro, Haroldo V. & Mendes, Renio S., 2013. "Scaling laws in the dynamics of crime growth rate," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(11), pages 2672-2679.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:392:y:2013:i:11:p:2672-2679
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2013.02.002
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    3. Alves, L.G.A. & Ribeiro, H.V. & Lenzi, E.K. & Mendes, R.S., 2014. "Empirical analysis on the connection between power-law distributions and allometries for urban indicators," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 409(C), pages 175-182.
    4. Luiz G A Alves & Haroldo V Ribeiro & Ervin K Lenzi & Renio S Mendes, 2013. "Distance to the Scaling Law: A Useful Approach for Unveiling Relationships between Crime and Urban Metrics," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(8), pages 1-8, August.
    5. Cornelia Metzig & Mirta B. Gordon, 2013. "A Model for Scaling in Firms' Size and Growth Rate Distribution," Papers 1304.4311, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2013.
    6. Cardoso, M. & Silva, L.M.C. & Neli, R.R. & Souza, W.E., 2022. "Electorate involvement disorder: Universal relationship between the amplitude and electorate size in second round of Brazilian Presidential Election," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 591(C).
    7. James PL Tan, 2016. "A Generalized Population Dynamics Model of a City and an Algorithm for Engineering Regime Shifts," Papers 1612.08338, arXiv.org.
    8. Dominik Wodarz & Natalia L Komarova, 2013. "Dependence of the Firearm-Related Homicide Rate on Gun Availability: A Mathematical Analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(7), pages 1-13, July.
    9. Metzig, Cornelia & Gordon, Mirta B., 2014. "A model for scaling in firms’ size and growth rate distribution," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 398(C), pages 264-279.
    10. Alves, Luiz G.A. & Ribeiro, Haroldo V. & Rodrigues, Francisco A., 2018. "Crime prediction through urban metrics and statistical learning," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 505(C), pages 435-443.
    11. Bansal, Komal & Mathur, Trilok & Agarwal, Shivi, 2023. "Fractional-order crime propagation model with non-linear transmission rate," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    12. Luiz G A Alves & Renio S Mendes & Ervin K Lenzi & Haroldo V Ribeiro, 2015. "Scale-Adjusted Metrics for Predicting the Evolution of Urban Indicators and Quantifying the Performance of Cities," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(9), pages 1-17, September.
    13. Alsenafi, Abdulaziz & Barbaro, Alethea B.T., 2018. "A convection–diffusion model for gang territoriality," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 510(C), pages 765-786.
    14. Cardoso, M. & Souza, J.T.G. & Neli, R.R. & Souza, W.E., 2023. "Scaling laws from Brazilian state election results point out that, the candidate’s chance to win increases by investing more campaign efforts in smaller electorates," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 619(C).
    15. Yusra Ghafoor & Yi-Shin Chen & Kuan-Ta Chen, 2019. "Social Interaction Scaling for Contact Networks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-14, May.

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