An investigation of Forex market efficiency based on detrended fluctuation analysis: A case study for Iran
The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) states that asset prices fully reflect all available information. As a result, speculators cannot predict the future behavior of asset prices and earn excess profits at least after adjusting for risk. Although initial tests of the EMH were performed on stock market data, the EMH was soon applied to other markets including foreign exchange (FX). This study uses the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) technique to test 01:12:2005–18:04:2010 Iranian Rial/US Dollar exchange rate time series data to see if it can be explained by the weak form of the EMH. Moreover, to determine changes in the degree of inefficiency over time, the whole period has been divided into four subperiods. The study shows that the Iranian Forex market (the Rial/Dollar case) is weak-form inefficient over the whole period and in each of the subperiods. However, the degree of inefficiency is not constant over time. The findings suggest that profitable risk-adjusted trades could be made using past data.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 391 (2012)
Issue (Month): 11 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Skjeltorp, Johannes A, 2000. "Scaling in the Norwegian stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 283(3), pages 486-528.
- Podobnik, Boris & Fu, Dongfeng & Jagric, Timotej & Grosse, Ivo & Eugene Stanley, H., 2006. "Fractionally integrated process for transition economics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 362(2), pages 465-470.
- Zunino, Luciano & Zanin, Massimiliano & Tabak, Benjamin M. & Pérez, Darío G. & Rosso, Osvaldo A., 2009. "Forbidden patterns, permutation entropy and stock market inefficiency," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(14), pages 2854-2864.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
- Christopher J. Neely, 1997. "Technical analysis in the foreign exchange market: a layman's guide," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 23-38.
- Barkoulas, John T. & Baum, Christopher F., 1996.
"Long-term dependence in stock returns,"
Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 253-259, December.
- Oh, Gabjin & Kim, Seunghwan & Eom, Cheoljun, 2007. "Market efficiency in foreign exchange markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 382(1), pages 209-212.
- Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
- Granger, Clive & Timmermann, Allan G, 2002.
"Efficient Market Hypothesis and Forecasting,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3593, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Coronel-Brizio, H.F. & Hernández-Montoya, A.R. & Huerta-Quintanilla, R. & Rodríguez-Achach, M., 2007. "Evidence of increment of efficiency of the Mexican Stock Market through the analysis of its variations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 380(C), pages 391-398.
- repec:ebl:ecbull:v:7:y:2007:i:1:p:1-11 is not listed on IDEAS
- Costa, Rogério L. & Vasconcelos, G.L., 2003. "Long-range correlations and nonstationarity in the Brazilian stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 329(1), pages 231-248.
- Epaminondas Panas, 2001. "Estimating fractal dimension using stable distributions and exploring long memory through ARFIMA models in Athens Stock Exchange," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 395-402.
- Tóth, Bence & Kertész, János, 2006. "Increasing market efficiency: Evolution of cross-correlations of stock returns," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 360(2), pages 505-515.
- Cleiton Taufemback & Ricardo Giglio & Sergio Da Silva, 2011. "Algorithmic complexity theory detects decreases in the relative efficiency of stock markets in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(2), pages 1631-1647.
- Muniandy, S.V. & Lim, S.C. & Murugan, R., 2001. "Inhomogeneous scaling behaviors in Malaysian foreign currency exchange rates," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 301(1), pages 407-428.
- Couillard, Michel & Davison, Matt, 2005. "A comment on measuring the Hurst exponent of financial time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 348(C), pages 404-418.
- Eom, Cheoljun & Choi, Sunghoon & Oh, Gabjin & Jung, Woo-Sung, 2008. "Hurst exponent and prediction based on weak-form efficient market hypothesis of stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(18), pages 4630-4636.
- Sergio R. S. Souza & Benjamin M. Tabak & Daniel O. Cajueiro, 2008.
"Long-Range Dependence In Exchange Rates: The Case Of The European Monetary System,"
International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF),
World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(02), pages 199-223.
- Sergio Rubens Stancato de Souza & Benjamin M. Tabak & Daniel O. Cajueiro, 2007. "Long-Range Dependence in Exchange Rates: the case of the European Monetary System," Working Papers Series 131, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
- Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980.
"On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
- Sanford J Grossman & Joseph E Stiglitz, 1997. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1908, David K. Levine.
- Cajueiro, Daniel O. & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2004. "Evidence of long range dependence in Asian equity markets: the role of liquidity and market restrictions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 342(3), pages 656-664.
- Zivot, Eric, 2000. "Cointegration and forward and spot exchange rate regressions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 785-812, December.
- Guneratne B Wickremasinghe & Jae H Kim, 2008. "Weak-Form Efficiency of Foreign Exchange Markets of Developing Economies," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 7(2), pages 169-196, August.
- R. L. Costa & G. L. Vasconcelos, 2003. "Long-range correlations and nonstationarity in the Brazilian stock market," Papers cond-mat/0302342, arXiv.org.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:391:y:2012:i:11:p:3170-3179. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.