IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/pacfin/v79y2023ics0927538x23000951.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Earnings announcement premium and return volatility: Is it consistent with risk-return trade-off?

Author

Listed:
  • Tsafack, Georges
  • Becker, Ying
  • Han, Ki

Abstract

Earlier studies document the earnings announcement premium, that the average stock return around earnings announcements is positive. This study examines the earnings announcement premium with a focus on the relationship between stock returns and return volatilities. Our findings can be summarized as follows. First, based on the long-term data including the post financial crisis period, we find that the earnings announcement premium still exists, positive and significant. Second, the announcement premium is positively related to the expected volatility. The positive relationship between the announcement premium and the expected volatility indicates a risk-return tradeoff, suggesting that investors hold on to their stocks expecting that their taking risk is compensated with returns. Third, we find that the announcement premium is inversely related to the realized volatility. The negative relationship is not confined to the group of negative earnings surprises. These results suggest that a dynamic of inverse relationship between returns and volatilities coexists with a risk-return tradeoff around earnings announcements. Extending our study to Asian-Pacific stock market might shed lights on commonalities and differences in international risk-return tradeoff.

Suggested Citation

  • Tsafack, Georges & Becker, Ying & Han, Ki, 2023. "Earnings announcement premium and return volatility: Is it consistent with risk-return trade-off?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:79:y:2023:i:c:s0927538x23000951
    DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2023.102029
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927538X23000951
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.pacfin.2023.102029?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ľuboš Pástor & Veronesi Pietro, 2003. "Stock Valuation and Learning about Profitability," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(5), pages 1749-1789, October.
    2. Ang, Andrew & Hodrick, Robert J. & Xing, Yuhang & Zhang, Xiaoyan, 2009. "High idiosyncratic volatility and low returns: International and further U.S. evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 1-23, January.
    3. Jones, Charles M. & Lamont, Owen & Lumsdaine, Robin L., 1998. "Macroeconomic news and bond market volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 315-337, March.
    4. Wenshwo Fang, 2001. "Stock return process and expected depreciation over the Asian financial crisis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(7), pages 905-912.
    5. Bali, Turan G. & Cakici, Nusret, 2008. "Idiosyncratic Volatility and the Cross Section of Expected Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(1), pages 29-58, March.
    6. Steven X. Wei & Chu Zhang, 2006. "Why Did Individual Stocks Become More Volatile?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(1), pages 259-292, January.
    7. Lehmann, Bruce N., 1990. "Residual risk revisited," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 71-97.
    8. Longstaff, Francis A, 1989. " Temporal Aggregation and the Continuous-Time Capital Asset Pricing Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(4), pages 871-887, September.
    9. John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999. "Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April.
    10. Merton, Robert C, 1987. "A Simple Model of Capital Market Equilibrium with Incomplete Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(3), pages 483-510, July.
    11. Cohen, Daniel A. & Dey, Aiyesha & Lys, Thomas Z. & Sunder, Shyam V., 2007. "Earnings announcement premia and the limits to arbitrage," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2-3), pages 153-180, July.
    12. Ken B. Cyree & Dale L. Domian & David A. Louton & Elizabeth J. Yobaccio, 1999. "Evidence of psychological barriers in the conditional moments of major world stock indices," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 8(1), pages 73-91.
    13. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2015. "A five-factor asset pricing model," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 1-22.
    14. David Blitz & Matthias X. Hanauer & Pim Vliet, 2021. "The Volatility Effect in China," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(5), pages 338-349, September.
    15. Ball, R & Brown, P, 1968. "Empirical Evaluation Of Accounting Income Numbers," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(2), pages 159-178.
    16. Nicholas Barberis & Ming Huang, 2001. "Mental Accounting, Loss Aversion, and Individual Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1247-1292, August.
    17. Cyree, Ken B. & Domian, Dale L. & Louton, David A. & Yobaccio, Elizabeth J., 1999. "Evidence of psychological barriers in the conditional moments of major world stock indices," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 73-91, June.
    18. Alok Kumar, 2009. "Who Gambles in the Stock Market?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(4), pages 1889-1933, August.
    19. Chen, Xuanjuan & Kim, Kenneth A. & Yao, Tong & Yu, Tong, 2010. "On the predictability of Chinese stock returns," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 403-425, September.
    20. Qingfu Liu & Yiuman Tse & Kaixin Zheng, 2021. "The impact of trading behavioral biases on market liquidity under different volatility levels: Evidence from the Chinese commodity futures market," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 671-692, November.
    21. Savor, Pavel & Wilson, Mungo, 2014. "Asset pricing: A tale of two days," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 171-201.
    22. Fu, Fangjian, 2009. "Idiosyncratic risk and the cross-section of expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 24-37, January.
    23. Ball, Ray, 1978. "Anomalies in relationships between securities' yields and yield-surrogates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2-3), pages 103-126.
    24. Kim, Kenneth A. & Nofsinger, John R., 2008. "Behavioral finance in Asia," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 16(1-2), pages 1-7, January.
    25. Ang, Andrew & Liu, Jun, 2007. "Risk, return, and dividends," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 1-38, July.
    26. Bernile, Gennaro & Hu, Jianfeng & Tang, Yuehua, 2016. "Can information be locked up? Informed trading ahead of macro-news announcements," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(3), pages 496-520.
    27. Philippe Mueller & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi & Andrea Vedolin, 2017. "Exchange Rates and Monetary Policy Uncertainty," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(3), pages 1213-1252, June.
    28. Bryan Kelly & Ľuboš Pástor & Pietro Veronesi, 2016. "The Price of Political Uncertainty: Theory and Evidence from the Option Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(5), pages 2417-2480, October.
    29. Beaver, Wh, 1968. "Information Content Of Annual Earnings Announcements," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6, pages 67-92.
    30. Ali, Ashiq & Chen, Xuanjuan & Yao, Tong & Yu, Tong, 2020. "Can mutual funds profit from post earnings announcement drift? The role of competition," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    31. Francesca Brusa & Pavel Savor & Mungo Wilson, 2020. "One Central Bank to Rule Them All," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 24(2), pages 263-304.
    32. Bernard, Vl & Thomas, Jk, 1989. "Post-Earnings-Announcement Drift - Delayed Price Response Or Risk Premium," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27, pages 1-36.
    33. David O. Lucca & Emanuel Moench, 2015. "The Pre-FOMC Announcement Drift," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(1), pages 329-371, February.
    34. Savor, Pavel & Wilson, Mungo, 2013. "How Much Do Investors Care About Macroeconomic Risk? Evidence from Scheduled Economic Announcements," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(2), pages 343-375, April.
    35. Nicholas Barberis & Ming Huang, 2001. "Mental Accounting, Loss Aversion, and Individual Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 8190, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    36. Berk, Ales S. & Cummins, Mark & Dowling, Michael & Lucey, Brian M., 2017. "Psychological price barriers in frontier equities," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 1-14.
    37. Bing Han & Gang Li, 2021. "Information Content of Aggregate Implied Volatility Spread," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(2), pages 1249-1269, February.
    38. Ferhat Akbas, 2016. "The Calm before the Storm," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(1), pages 225-266, February.
    39. Miller, Edward M, 1977. "Risk, Uncertainty, and Divergence of Opinion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1151-1168, September.
    40. Barber, Brad M. & De George, Emmanuel T. & Lehavy, Reuven & Trueman, Brett, 2013. "The earnings announcement premium around the globe," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 118-138.
    41. Zhanhui Chen & Ralitsa Petkova, 2012. "Does Idiosyncratic Volatility Proxy for Risk Exposure?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(9), pages 2745-2787.
    42. Mark Wong & Adrian Wai Kong Cheung & Wei Hu, 2021. "When two anomalies meet: Volume and timing effects on earnings announcements," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 355-380, May.
    43. Anna Cieslak & Adair Morse & Annette Vissing‐Jorgensen, 2019. "Stock Returns over the FOMC Cycle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(5), pages 2201-2248, October.
    44. Kross, W & Schroeder, Da, 1984. "An Empirical-Investigation Of The Effect Of Quarterly Earnings Announcement Timing On Stock Returns," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 153-176.
    45. Gennotte, Gerard & Trueman, Brett, 1996. "The Strategic Timing of Corporate Disclosures," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(2), pages 665-690.
    46. Manuel Ammann & Michael Verhofen & Stephan Süss, 2009. "Do implied volatilities predict stock returns?," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(4), pages 222-234, October.
    47. Pavel Savor & Mungo Wilson, 2016. "Earnings Announcements and Systematic Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(1), pages 83-138, February.
    48. Levy, Haim, 1978. "Equilibrium in an Imperfect Market: A Constraint on the Number of Securities in the Portfolio," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 68(4), pages 643-658, September.
    49. Charles Cao & Timothy Simin & Jing Zhao, 2008. "Can Growth Options Explain the Trend in Idiosyncratic Risk?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(6), pages 2599-2633, November.
    50. Owen Lamont & Andrea Frazzini, 2007. "The Earnings Announcement Premium and Trading Volume," NBER Working Papers 13090, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, November.
    2. Zhaobo Zhu & Wenjie Ding & Yi Jin & Dehua Shen, 2023. "Dissecting the Idiosyncratic Volatility Puzzle: A Fundamental Analysis Approach," Post-Print hal-04194180, HAL.
    3. Guo, Hui & Qiu, Buhui, 2014. "Options-implied variance and future stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 93-113.
    4. Guo, Hui & Savickas, Robert, 2010. "Relation between time-series and cross-sectional effects of idiosyncratic variance on stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1637-1649, July.
    5. Qadan, Mahmoud, 2019. "Risk appetite, idiosyncratic volatility and expected returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    6. Mark Wong & Adrian Wai Kong Cheung & Wei Hu, 2021. "When two anomalies meet: Volume and timing effects on earnings announcements," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 355-380, May.
    7. Rajnish Mehra & Sunil Wahal & Daruo Xie, 2021. "Is idiosyncratic risk conditionally priced?," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(2), pages 625-646, May.
    8. Zhong, Angel, 2018. "Idiosyncratic volatility in the Australian equity market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 105-125.
    9. Bekjarovski, Filip, 2019. "Active investing," Other publications TiSEM 7636da9d-f63e-451a-ba78-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    10. Wang, Huijun & Yan, Jinghua & Yu, Jianfeng, 2017. "Reference-dependent preferences and the risk–return trade-off," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(2), pages 395-414.
    11. Amit Goyal, 2012. "Empirical cross-sectional asset pricing: a survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 26(1), pages 3-38, March.
    12. Hu, Grace Xing & Pan, Jun & Wang, Jiang & Zhu, Haoxiang, 2022. "Premium for heightened uncertainty: Explaining pre-announcement market returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(3), pages 909-936.
    13. Bodilsen, Simon & Eriksen, Jonas N. & Grønborg, Niels S., 2021. "Asset pricing and FOMC press conferences," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    14. Gilbert, Thomas & Hrdlicka, Christopher & Kamara, Avraham, 2018. "The structure of information release and the factor structure of returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(3), pages 546-566.
    15. Jorida Papakroni, 2018. "The dispersion anomaly and analyst recommendations," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 861-896, April.
    16. Shuonan Yuan & Marc Oliver Rieger & Nilüfer Caliskan, 2020. "Maxing out: the puzzling influence of past maximum returns on future asset prices in a cross-country analysis," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 70(4), pages 567-589, November.
    17. Nartea, Gilbert V. & Wu, Ji, 2013. "Is there a volatility effect in the Hong Kong stock market?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 119-135.
    18. Andreas Neuhierl & Michael Weber & Michael Weber, 2017. "Monetary Momentum," CESifo Working Paper Series 6648, CESifo.
    19. Holger Kraft & Eduardo S. Schwartz & Farina Weiss, 2013. "Growth Options and Firm Valuation," NBER Working Papers 18836, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Liu, Mengxi (Maggie) & Chan, Kam Fong & Faff, Robert, 2022. "What can we learn from firm-level jump-induced tail risk around earnings announcements?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Earnings announcement premium; Return volatility; Risk-return tradeoff; Chinese market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:79:y:2023:i:c:s0927538x23000951. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/pacfin .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.