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Time-varying estimates of CAPM betas

Author

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  • Groenewold, Nicolaas
  • Fraser, Patricia

Abstract

It is well known that the CAPM beta is not stable over time. We investigate the nature of the time-variation in betas using monthly Australian data from 1979 to 1994 for 23 sectors. We discuss beta estimates for sub-periods and tests of the statistical adequacy of the market model used to estimate the betas. We estimate time-varying betas using recursive regressions, rolling regressions and using the Kalman Filter. We find considerable time-variation in the estimated betas and find that many are non-stationary. We estimate a simple model which explains the variation in each of the betas in terms of a time trend, allowing for a break both in level and in trend at October 1987. The model explains a large proportion of the variation in the betas over the sample period for most of the sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Groenewold, Nicolaas & Fraser, Patricia, 1999. "Time-varying estimates of CAPM betas," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 531-539.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:matcom:v:48:y:1999:i:4:p:531-539
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. Goodness C. Aye & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta, 2017. "International stock return predictability: Is the role of U.S. time-varying?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 44(1), pages 121-146, February.
    4. Sascha Mergner & Jan Bulla, 2008. "Time-varying beta risk of Pan-European industry portfolios: A comparison of alternative modeling techniques," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(8), pages 771-802.
    5. Joliet, Robert & Hubner, Georges, 2008. "Corporate international diversification and the cost of equity: European evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 102-123, February.
    6. Caporale, Tony, 2012. "Time varying CAPM betas and banking sector risk," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 293-295.
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    8. Ortas, E. & Salvador, M. & Moneva, J.M., 2015. "Improved beta modeling and forecasting: An unobserved component approach with conditional heteroscedastic disturbances," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 27-51.
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    11. Buckland, Roger & Fraser, Patricia, 2002. "The scale and patterns of abnormal returns to equity investment in UK electricity distribution," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 39-62.
    12. Tomas Adam & Sona Benecka & Ivo Jansky, 2012. "Time-Varying Betas of Banking Sectors," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 62(6), pages 485-504, December.
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    14. Yih Su & Jing-Shiang Hwang, 2009. "A two-phase approach to estimating time-varying parameters in the capital asset pricing model," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 79-89.
    15. Shyh-Wei Chen & Nai-Chuan Huang, 2007. "Estimates of the ICAPM with regime-switching betas: evidence from four pacific rim economies," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 313-327.
    16. Bhar, Ramaprasad & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2007. "Co-movement in the price of risk of aggregate equity markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 256-271, September.
    17. Ramaprasad Bhar, 2010. "Stochastic Filtering With Applications In Finance:," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 7736, November.
    18. Stefano D'Addona & Mattia Ciprian, 2007. "Time Varying Sensitivities On A Grid Architecture," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(02), pages 307-329.
    19. Ortas, Eduardo & Moneva, José M. & Salvador, Manuel, 2012. "Does socially responsible investment equity indexes in emerging markets pay off? Evidence from Brazil," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 581-597.
    20. Mariangela Bonasia & Oreste Napolitano, 2007. "Do Fundamentals and Credibility Matter in a Funded Pension System ?A Markov Switching Analysis for Australia and Iceland," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 50(2), pages 221-248.

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