IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/lauspo/v114y2022ics0264837722000187.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Scenario simulation of the tradeoff between ecological land and farmland in black soil region of Northeast China

Author

Listed:
  • Wang, Huan
  • Zhang, Chao
  • Yao, Xiaochuang
  • Yun, Wenju
  • Ma, Jiani
  • Gao, Lulu
  • Li, Pengshan

Abstract

The trade-off/synergy between planned ecological land and farmland is of great significance to food security, economic development and ecological environment protection in black soil region, and has become a global strategic issue related to the sustainable development of human society. Land use/cover (LUC) simulation model can be used to formulate sustainable land use strategies that balance farmland use and ecological environment protection. In this study, we combined the grey attribute of land resources with the complexity of land use/cover change (LUCC). By integrating grey Markov model and Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) model, we discussed the characteristics of historical LUCC in Songnen Plain from 2000 to 2020, and simulated the LUC pattern of Songnen Plain in 2040 under different scenarios. At the same time, the landscape gradient evolution of ecological land and farmland under different scenarios from 2000 to 2020 and 2040 were quantitative analyzed in order to clarify the changes of ecological land and farmland in the study area in the past and future, which provided a basis for the tradeoff / synergy between farmland and ecological land. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The LUCC in 2020 was simulated with the Kappa coefficient was 0.82, the figure of merit (FOM) coefficient was 0.31, which verified the rationality of the accuracy of the model. (2) Whether it is baseline development (BL) scenario, farmland protection (FP) scenario, ecological protection (EP) scenario and black land protection (BP)scenario, the transformation of farmland and ecological land was distributed in the central and western areas, the transformation frequency of farmland, wetland and grassland was higher. (3) Landscape gradient analysis showed the degree of fragmentation of ecological land in Songnen Plain was high, and the anti-interference ability of farmland is strong. (4) The whole region is a trade-off between the two landscape, and the trade-off in the typical black soil area is about 20% higher than the non-typical black soil area. Black land protection scenario may be the best solution to coordinate the sustainable development of farmland and ecological land in the future. These studies will not only provide a theoretical basis for regional land management decision-making and urban planning and construction, but also provide some reference for its economic construction and sustainable development.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Huan & Zhang, Chao & Yao, Xiaochuang & Yun, Wenju & Ma, Jiani & Gao, Lulu & Li, Pengshan, 2022. "Scenario simulation of the tradeoff between ecological land and farmland in black soil region of Northeast China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:lauspo:v:114:y:2022:i:c:s0264837722000187
    DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2022.105991
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264837722000187
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.landusepol.2022.105991?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Li, Feng & Ye, Yaping & Song, Bowen & Wang, Rusong, 2015. "Evaluation of urban suitable ecological land based on the minimum cumulative resistance model: A case study from Changzhou, China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 318(C), pages 194-203.
    2. Shifaw, Eshetu & Sha, Jinming & Li, Xiaomei & Bao, Zhongcong & Zhou, Zhenglong, 2019. "An insight into land-cover changes and their impacts on ecosystem services before and after the implementation of a comprehensive experimental zone plan in Pingtan island, China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 631-642.
    3. Kumar, Ujjwal & Jain, V.K., 2010. "Time series models (Grey-Markov, Grey Model with rolling mechanism and singular spectrum analysis) to forecast energy consumption in India," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1709-1716.
    4. Laura Vang Rasmussen & Brendan Coolsaet & Adrian Martin & Ole Mertz & Unai Pascual & Esteve Corbera & Neil Dawson & Janet A. Fisher & Phil Franks & Casey M. Ryan, 2018. "Social-ecological outcomes of agricultural intensification," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 1(6), pages 275-282, June.
    5. Liu, Yansui, 2018. "Introduction to land use and rural sustainability in China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 1-4.
    6. Xu, Duanyang & Li, Dajing, 2020. "Variation of wind erosion and its response to ecological programs in northern China in the period 1981–2015," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    7. Laura Vang Rasmussen & Brendan Coolsaet & Adrian Martin & Ole Mertz & Unai Pascual & Esteve Corbera & Neil Dawson & Janet A. Fisher & Phil Franks & Casey M. Ryan, 2018. "Publisher Correction: Social-ecological outcomes of agricultural intensification," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 1(7), pages 376-376, July.
    8. Yang, Yuanyuan & Bao, Wenkai & Liu, Yansui, 2020. "Scenario simulation of land system change in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    9. Bo Zeng & Xin Ma & Juanjuan Shi, 2020. "Modeling Method of the Grey GM(1,1) Model with Interval Grey Action Quantity and Its Application," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2020, pages 1-10, January.
    10. Robert Pontius & Wideke Boersma & Jean-Christophe Castella & Keith Clarke & Ton Nijs & Charles Dietzel & Zengqiang Duan & Eric Fotsing & Noah Goldstein & Kasper Kok & Eric Koomen & Christopher Lippitt, 2008. "Comparing the input, output, and validation maps for several models of land change," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 42(1), pages 11-37, March.
    11. Xiangbin Kong, 2014. "China must protect high-quality arable land," Nature, Nature, vol. 506(7486), pages 7-7, February.
    12. Huang, Daquan & Huang, Jing & Liu, Tao, 2019. "Delimiting urban growth boundaries using the CLUE-S model with village administrative boundaries," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 422-435.
    13. Jonathan A. Foley & Navin Ramankutty & Kate A. Brauman & Emily S. Cassidy & James S. Gerber & Matt Johnston & Nathaniel D. Mueller & Christine O’Connell & Deepak K. Ray & Paul C. West & Christian Balz, 2011. "Solutions for a cultivated planet," Nature, Nature, vol. 478(7369), pages 337-342, October.
    14. Yang, Huicai & Wang, Huixiao & Fu, Guobin & Yan, Haiming & Zhao, Panpan & Ma, Meihong, 2017. "A modified soil water deficit index (MSWDI) for agricultural drought monitoring: Case study of Songnen Plain, China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 125-138.
    15. Nan Dong & Xiaohuan Yang & Hongyan Cai & Fengjiao Xu, 2017. "Research on Grid Size Suitability of Gridded Population Distribution in Urban Area: A Case Study in Urban Area of Xuanzhou District, China," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(1), pages 1-19, January.
    16. Park, Jung-Ho & Han, Man-Hee, 2018. "Modern state formation and land management in South Korea: 1945–1960," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 662-671.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mengqi Wang & Guoping Lei, 2023. "Relative and Cumulative Effects of Climate and Land Use Change on Hydrological Ecosystem Services in Northeast China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-17, June.
    2. Yingqiang Song & Zeao Zhang & Yan Li & Runyan Zou & Lu Wang & Hao Yang & Yueming Hu, 2023. "The Role of High Nature Value Farmland for Landscape and Soil Pollution Assessment in a Coastal Delta in China Based on High-Resolution Indicators," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-19, April.
    3. Shengwang Bao & Fan Yang, 2022. "Spatio-Temporal Dynamic of the Land Use/Cover Change and Scenario Simulation in the Southeast Coastal Shelterbelt System Construction Project Region of China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-19, July.
    4. Wen Li & Jianwei Geng & Jingling Bao & Wenxiong Lin & Zeyan Wu & Shuisheng Fan, 2023. "Spatial and Temporal Evolution Patterns of Habitat Quality under Tea Plantation Expansion and Multi-Scenario Simulation Study: Anxi County as an Example," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-19, June.
    5. Yanqi Zhao & Yue Zhang & Ying Yang & Fan Li & Rongkun Dai & Jianlin Li & Mingshi Wang & Zhenhua Li, 2023. "The Impact of Land Use Structure Change on Utilization Performance in Henan Province, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(5), pages 1-18, February.
    6. Han Liu & Yu Wang & Lingling Sang & Caisheng Zhao & Tengyun Hu & Hongtao Liu & Zheng Zhang & Shuyu Wang & Shuangxi Miao & Zhengshan Ju, 2023. "Evaluation of Spatiotemporal Changes in Cropland Quantity and Quality with Multi-Source Remote Sensing," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-22, September.
    7. Jun Luo & Xueyang Ma & Lei Wang & Bin Zhang & Xiao Yang & Tianxiang Yue, 2022. "The Influence of Short-Term Heavy Rainfall on Hydraulic Characteristics and Rill Formation in the Yuanmou Dry-Hot Valley," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(22), pages 1-21, November.
    8. Xue Wang, 2022. "Changes in Cultivated Land Loss and Landscape Fragmentation in China from 2000 to 2020," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-16, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yuxi Guo & Elizabeth H. Boughton & Stephanie Bohlman & Carl Bernacchi & Patrick J. Bohlen & Raoul Boughton & Evan DeLucia & John E. Fauth & Nuria Gomez-Casanovas & David G. Jenkins & Gene Lollis & Rya, 2023. "Grassland intensification effects cascade to alter multifunctionality of wetlands within metaecosystems," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-15, December.
    2. Zhang, Bangbang & Li, Xian & Chen, Haibin & Niu, Wenhao & Kong, Xiangbin & Yu, Qiang & Zhao, Minjuan & Xia, Xianli, 2022. "Identifying opportunities to close yield gaps in China by use of certificated cultivars to estimate potential productivity," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    3. Erbaugh, James & Bierbaum, Rosina & Castilleja, Guillermo & da Fonseca, Gustavo A.B. & Hansen, Steffen Cole Brandstrup, 2019. "Toward sustainable agriculture in the tropics," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 158-162.
    4. Hammond, James & van Wijk, Mark & Teufel, Nils & Mekonnen, Kindu & Thorne, Peter, 2021. "Assessing smallholder sustainable intensification in the Ethiopian highlands," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    5. Wenting Zhang & Bo Li, 2021. "Research on an Analytical Framework for Urban Spatial Structural and Functional Optimisation: A Case Study of Beijing City, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-19, January.
    6. Yang, Yuanyuan & Bao, Wenkai & Liu, Yansui, 2020. "Scenario simulation of land system change in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    7. Rohe, Sebastian & Oltmer, Marie & Wolter, Hendrik & Gmeiner, Nina & Tschersich , Julia, 2022. "Forever Niche: Why do organic vegetable varieties not diffuse?," Papers in Innovation Studies 2022/8, Lund University, CIRCLE - Centre for Innovation Research.
    8. Steven J. Fonte & Marian Hsieh & Nathaniel D. Mueller, 2023. "Earthworms contribute significantly to global food production," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-5, December.
    9. Wong, Grace Y. & Holm, Minda & Pietarinen, Niina & Ville, Alizee & Brockhaus, Maria, 2022. "The making of resource frontier spaces in the Congo Basin and Southeast Asia: A critical analysis of narratives, actors and drivers in the scientific literature," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    10. Silvia Tobias & Bronwyn Price, 2020. "How Effective Is Spatial Planning for Cropland Protection? An Assessment Based on Land-Use Scenarios," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-20, February.
    11. Guoqiang Ma & Qiujie Li & Jinxiu Zhang & Lixun Zhang & Hua Cheng & Zhengping Ju & Guojun Sun, 2022. "Simulation and Analysis of Land-Use Change Based on the PLUS Model in the Fuxian Lake Basin (Yunnan–Guizhou Plateau, China)," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-18, December.
    12. Xu, Hongtao & Song, Youcheng & Tian, Yi, 2022. "Simulation of land-use pattern evolution in hilly mountainous areas of North China: A case study in Jincheng," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    13. Congmou Zhu & Lixia Yang & Qiuyu Xu & Jinwei Fu & Yue Lin & Le Sun & Shan He & Shaofeng Yuan, 2022. "A Comparative Analysis of Farmland Occupation by Urban Sprawl and Rural Settlement Expansion in China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-16, October.
    14. Tennhardt, Lina & Lazzarini, Gianna & Weisshaidinger, Rainer & Schader, Christian, 2022. "Do environmentally-friendly cocoa farms yield social and economic co-benefits?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    15. Li, Lei & Ma, Shaojun & Zheng, Yilin & Xiao, Xinyue, 2022. "Integrated regional development: Comparison of urban agglomeration policies in China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    16. Qiu, Bingwen & Li, Haiwen & Tang, Zhenghong & Chen, Chongcheng & Berry, Joe, 2020. "How cropland losses shaped by unbalanced urbanization process?," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    17. Cheng, Mingyang & Yansui Liu, & Zhou, Yang, 2019. "Measuring the symbiotic development of rural housing and industry: A case study of Fuping County in the Taihang Mountains in China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 307-316.
    18. Fei, Rilong & Lin, Ziyi & Chunga, Joseph, 2021. "How land transfer affects agricultural land use efficiency: Evidence from China’s agricultural sector," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    19. Zhang, Zuo & Li, Jiaming & Luo, Xiang & Li, Chongming & Zhang, Lu, 2020. "Urban lake spatial openness and relationship with neighboring land prices: Exploratory geovisual analytics for essential policy insights," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    20. Cisneros-Pineda, Alfredo & Hertel, Thomas W. & Baldos, Uris Lantz C. & Chaudhary, Abhishek, 2023. "Can Productivity Growth Contribute to Biodiversity Preservation? The Role of International Trade," 2023 Annual Meeting, July 23-25, Washington D.C. 335902, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:lauspo:v:114:y:2022:i:c:s0264837722000187. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joice Jiang (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/land-use-policy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.