IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jlands/v12y2022i1p120-d1020652.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Simulation and Analysis of Land-Use Change Based on the PLUS Model in the Fuxian Lake Basin (Yunnan–Guizhou Plateau, China)

Author

Listed:
  • Guoqiang Ma

    (College of Ecology, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
    Southwest Investigation and Planning Institute of State Forestry and Grassland Administration, Kunming 650031, China)

  • Qiujie Li

    (Power China Kunming Engneering Corporation Limted, Kunming 650051, China)

  • Jinxiu Zhang

    (Southwest Investigation and Planning Institute of State Forestry and Grassland Administration, Kunming 650031, China)

  • Lixun Zhang

    (College of Ecology, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China)

  • Hua Cheng

    (School of Tourism, Henan Normal University, Xinxiang 453007, China)

  • Zhengping Ju

    (Southwest Investigation and Planning Institute of State Forestry and Grassland Administration, Kunming 650031, China)

  • Guojun Sun

    (College of Ecology, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China)

Abstract

It is essential to study the characteristics of land use change in the Fuxian Lake basin, a plateau lake in Yunnan Province, and to predict the basin’s future trend of land use change for sustaining the key carriers of current national major strategies such as ecological civilization, green development, and rural revitalization. This study used the Fuxian Lake basin as the subject and based on the seven periods of historical land use data, added six driving factors including human and natural factors, applied patches to generate the land-use simulation model (PLUS), and forecasted and analyzed the characteristics of land-use change in the basin in 2048 under the three scenarios of natural trend development, ecological protection, and production protection. The results showed that: (1) the overall simulation accuracy of the model was 79.14%, Kappa index was 0.73, FOM value was 0.29, and the model’s consistency was high. The model can be used to simulate future land-use changes in the Fuxian Lake basin. (2) In the natural development scenario, land-use development and the driving factors in the basin have the following relationship: rainfall and trunk road distance significantly impacted the types of land that emphasize ecological conservation and product development. Elevation and soil distribution characteristics had a significant impact on land types focused mainly on water zones and ecological protection. The land types mainly focused on urban construction were greatly affected by elevation, trunk road distance, GDP per capita, and other factors. (3) The main direction of land-use change in the watershed is the mutual conversion between farmland and forest land, with the continuous expansion of construction land. In the production protection scenario, the area of farmland increased by 44.79 hm 2 . In the ecological protection scenario, the area of arbor forest land increased by 37.85 hm 2 and the area of shrub forest land decreased by 62.37 hm 2 . (4) From the perspective of spatial distribution patterns, the regional hotspot change blocks are mainly concentrated in the north of the basin, along the coast of the north of Fuxian Lake, and the southern land. In general, the PLUS model had good applicability in this study. The simulation results of the different scenarios were in line with the land development in the Fuxian Lake basin and can provide scientific reference for land-space planning, ecological and production land constraints, and coordination of development in the Fuxian Lake basin.

Suggested Citation

  • Guoqiang Ma & Qiujie Li & Jinxiu Zhang & Lixun Zhang & Hua Cheng & Zhengping Ju & Guojun Sun, 2022. "Simulation and Analysis of Land-Use Change Based on the PLUS Model in the Fuxian Lake Basin (Yunnan–Guizhou Plateau, China)," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-18, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:12:y:2022:i:1:p:120-:d:1020652
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/12/1/120/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/12/1/120/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shuo Yang & Hao Su, 2022. "Multi-Scenario Simulation of Ecosystem Service Values in the Guanzhong Plain Urban Agglomeration, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-23, July.
    2. Yucong Duan & Jie Tang & Zhaoyang Li & Yao Yang & Ce Dai & Yunke Qu & Hang Lv, 2022. "Optimal Planning and Management of Land Use in River Source Region: A Case Study of Songhua River Basin, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(11), pages 1-21, May.
    3. Robert Pontius & Wideke Boersma & Jean-Christophe Castella & Keith Clarke & Ton Nijs & Charles Dietzel & Zengqiang Duan & Eric Fotsing & Noah Goldstein & Kasper Kok & Eric Koomen & Christopher Lippitt, 2008. "Comparing the input, output, and validation maps for several models of land change," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 42(1), pages 11-37, March.
    4. Huang, Daquan & Huang, Jing & Liu, Tao, 2019. "Delimiting urban growth boundaries using the CLUE-S model with village administrative boundaries," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 422-435.
    5. Zijuan Zhao & Beilei Fan & Qingbo Zhou & Shihao Xu, 2022. "Simulating the Coupling of Rural Settlement Expansion and Population Growth in Deqing, Zhejiang Province, Based on MCCA Modeling," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-23, November.
    6. Yao, ZHOU & Jiang, CHANG & Shan-shan, FENG, 2022. "Effects of urban growth boundaries on urban spatial structural and ecological functional optimization in the Jining Metropolitan Area, China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    7. Yongjun Du & Xiaolong Li & Xinlin He & Xiaoqian Li & Guang Yang & Dongbo Li & Wenhe Xu & Xiang Qiao & Chen Li & Lu Sui, 2022. "Multi-Scenario Simulation and Trade-Off Analysis of Ecological Service Value in the Manas River Basin Based on Land Use Optimization in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(10), pages 1-31, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wenyu Wang & Chenghui Liu & Hongbo Yang & Guoyin Cai, 2023. "The Forecast of Beijing Habitat Quality Dynamics Considering the Government Land Use Planning and the City’s Spatial Heterogeneity," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-17, June.
    2. Wenting Zhang & Bo Li, 2021. "Research on an Analytical Framework for Urban Spatial Structural and Functional Optimisation: A Case Study of Beijing City, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-19, January.
    3. Wang, Huan & Zhang, Chao & Yao, Xiaochuang & Yun, Wenju & Ma, Jiani & Gao, Lulu & Li, Pengshan, 2022. "Scenario simulation of the tradeoff between ecological land and farmland in black soil region of Northeast China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    4. Xu, Hongtao & Song, Youcheng & Tian, Yi, 2022. "Simulation of land-use pattern evolution in hilly mountainous areas of North China: A case study in Jincheng," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    5. Wenqiang Zhou & Jinlong Wang & Yu Han & Ling Yang & Huafei Que & Rong Wang, 2023. "Scenario Simulation of the Relationship between Land-Use Changes and Ecosystem Carbon Storage: A Case Study in Dongting Lake Basin, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(6), pages 1-19, March.
    6. Kaiming Li & Min Wang & Wenbin Hou & Fuyuan Gao & Baicui Xu & Jianjun Zeng & Dongyu Jia & Jun Li, 2023. "Spatial Distribution and Driving Mechanisms of Rural Settlements in the Shiyang River Basin, Western China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-22, August.
    7. Yang, Yuanyuan & Bao, Wenkai & Liu, Yansui, 2020. "Scenario simulation of land system change in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    8. Youjung Kim & Galen Newman, 2019. "Climate Change Preparedness: Comparing Future Urban Growth and Flood Risk in Amsterdam and Houston," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-24, February.
    9. Aritta Suwarno & Meine van Noordwijk & Hans-Peter Weikard & Desi Suyamto, 2018. "Indonesia’s forest conversion moratorium assessed with an agent-based model of Land-Use Change and Ecosystem Services (LUCES)," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 211-229, February.
    10. Yuanyuan Yang & Shuwen Zhang & Jiuchun Yang & Xiaoshi Xing & Dongyan Wang, 2015. "Using a Cellular Automata-Markov Model to Reconstruct Spatial Land-Use Patterns in Zhenlai County, Northeast China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(5), pages 1-21, May.
    11. Bonoua Faye & Guoming Du & Edmée Mbaye & Chang’an Liang & Tidiane Sané & Ruhao Xue, 2023. "Assessing the Spatial Agricultural Land Use Transition in Thiès Region, Senegal, and Its Potential Driving Factors," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-20, March.
    12. Rifat, Shaikh Abdullah Al & Liu, Weibo, 2022. "Predicting future urban growth scenarios and potential urban flood exposure using Artificial Neural Network-Markov Chain model in Miami Metropolitan Area," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    13. Zhiwei Deng & Bin Quan, 2022. "Intensity Characteristics and Multi-Scenario Projection of Land Use and Land Cover Change in Hengyang, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(14), pages 1-18, July.
    14. Jing Yang & Feng Shi & Yizhong Sun & Jie Zhu, 2019. "A Cellular Automata Model Constrained by Spatiotemporal Heterogeneity of the Urban Development Strategy for Simulating Land-use Change: A Case Study in Nanjing City, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(15), pages 1-19, July.
    15. Changqing Sun & Yulong Bao & Battsengel Vandansambuu & Yuhai Bao, 2022. "Simulation and Prediction of Land Use/Cover Changes Based on CLUE-S and CA-Markov Models: A Case Study of a Typical Pastoral Area in Mongolia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-21, November.
    16. Yusuyunjiang Mamitimin & Zibibula Simayi & Ayinuer Mamat & Bumairiyemu Maimaiti & Yunfei Ma, 2023. "FLUS Based Modeling of the Urban LULC in Arid and Semi-Arid Region of Northwest China: A Case Study of Urumqi City," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-14, March.
    17. Brian Pickard & Joshua Gray & Ross Meentemeyer, 2017. "Comparing Quantity, Allocation and Configuration Accuracy of Multiple Land Change Models," Land, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-21, August.
    18. Chasia, Stanley & Olang, Luke O. & Sitoki, Lewis, 2023. "Modelling of land-use/cover change trajectories in a transboundary catchment of the Sio-Malaba-Malakisi Region in East Africa using the CLUE-s model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 476(C).
    19. Xiaoyang Liu & Weihao Shi & Sen Zhang, 2022. "Progress of Research on Urban Growth Boundary and Its Implications in Chinese Studies Based on Bibliometric Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(24), pages 1-18, December.
    20. Ju-Sung Lee & Tatiana Filatova & Arika Ligmann-Zielinska & Behrooz Hassani-Mahmooei & Forrest Stonedahl & Iris Lorscheid & Alexey Voinov & J. Gareth Polhill & Zhanli Sun & Dawn C. Parker, 2015. "The Complexities of Agent-Based Modeling Output Analysis," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 18(4), pages 1-4.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:12:y:2022:i:1:p:120-:d:1020652. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.