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Indonesia’s forest conversion moratorium assessed with an agent-based model of Land-Use Change and Ecosystem Services (LUCES)

Author

Listed:
  • Aritta Suwarno

    (Wageningen University)

  • Meine van Noordwijk

    (World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), SE Asia program
    Wageningen University)

  • Hans-Peter Weikard

    (Wageningen University)

  • Desi Suyamto

    (Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR))

Abstract

The Indonesian government recently confirmed its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) to mitigate global climate change. A forest moratorium policy that protects forest and peatland is a significant part of the INDCs; however, its effectiveness is unclear in the face of complex land-use and land-cover change. This study aims to assess the dynamics of land-use change and ecosystem service supply as a function of local decision-making. We developed an agent-based model, Land-Use Change and Ecosystem Services (LUCES), and used it to explore the possible effects of the forest moratorium policy on the land-use decisions of private companies and communities. Our simulations for two districts in Central Kalimantan show that the current implementation of the forest moratorium policy is not effective in reducing forest conversion and carbon emissions. This is because companies continue to invest in converting secondary forest on mineral soils and the moratorium does not affect community decision-making. A policy that combines a forest moratorium with livelihood support and increases farm-gate prices of forest and agroforestry products could increase the local communities’ benefits from conservation. Forest and agroforestry areas that are profitable and competitive are more likely to be conserved and reduce potential carbon emission by about 36 %. The results for the two districts, with different pressures on local resources, suggest that appropriate additional measures require local fine-tuning. The LUCES model could be an ex ante tool to facilitate such fine-tuning and help the Indonesian government achieve its INDC goals as part of a wider sustainable development policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Aritta Suwarno & Meine van Noordwijk & Hans-Peter Weikard & Desi Suyamto, 2018. "Indonesia’s forest conversion moratorium assessed with an agent-based model of Land-Use Change and Ecosystem Services (LUCES)," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 211-229, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:masfgc:v:23:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s11027-016-9721-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s11027-016-9721-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Suwarno, Aritta & Hein, Lars & Sumarga, Elham, 2015. "Governance, Decentralisation and Deforestation: The Case of Central Kalimantan Province, Indonesia," Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture, Humboldt-Universitaat zu Berlin, vol. 54(1), pages 1-24, February.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Ekawati, Sulistya & Subarudi, & Budiningsih, Kushartati & Sari, Galih Kartika & Muttaqin, Muhammad Zahrul, 2019. "Policies affecting the implementation of REDD+ in Indonesia (cases in Papua, Riau and Central Kalimantan)," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 1-1.
    3. Beatrice Nöldeke & Etti Winter & Yves Laumonier & Trifosa Simamora, 2021. "Simulating Agroforestry Adoption in Rural Indonesia: The Potential of Trees on Farms for Livelihoods and Environment," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-31, April.
    4. Edi Purwanto & Hery Santoso & Idsert Jelsma & Atiek Widayati & Hunggul Y. S. H. Nugroho & Meine van Noordwijk, 2020. "Agroforestry as Policy Option for Forest-Zone Oil Palm Production in Indonesia," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-34, December.
    5. Leijten, Floris & Sim, Sarah & King, Henry & Verburg, Peter H., 2021. "Local deforestation spillovers induced by forest moratoria: Evidence from Indonesia," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    6. Otto, Ilona M. & Wiedermann, Marc & Cremades, Roger & Donges, Jonathan F. & Auer, Cornelia & Lucht, Wolfgang, 2020. "Human agency in the Anthropocene," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    7. Dang, Anh Nguyet & Jackson, Bethanna Marie & Benavidez, Rubianca & Tomscha, Stephanie Anne, 2021. "Review of ecosystem service assessments: Pathways for policy integration in Southeast Asia," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    8. Meine van Noordwijk & Vincent Gitz & Peter A. Minang & Sonya Dewi & Beria Leimona & Lalisa Duguma & Nathanaël Pingault & Alexandre Meybeck, 2020. "People-Centric Nature-Based Land Restoration through Agroforestry: A Typology," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-29, July.
    9. L. Kiely & D. V. Spracklen & S. R. Arnold & E. Papargyropoulou & L. Conibear & C. Wiedinmyer & C. Knote & H. A. Adrianto, 2021. "Assessing costs of Indonesian fires and the benefits of restoring peatland," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-11, December.

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