IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v15y2023i6p4912-d1092816.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

FLUS Based Modeling of the Urban LULC in Arid and Semi-Arid Region of Northwest China: A Case Study of Urumqi City

Author

Listed:
  • Yusuyunjiang Mamitimin

    (College of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017, China
    Key Laboratory of Smart City and Environment Modeling of Higher Education Institute, Urumqi 830017, China)

  • Zibibula Simayi

    (College of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017, China
    Key Laboratory of Smart City and Environment Modeling of Higher Education Institute, Urumqi 830017, China)

  • Ayinuer Mamat

    (Kashgar Satellite Data Receiving Ground Station, Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kashgar 844000, China)

  • Bumairiyemu Maimaiti

    (College of Public Management (Law), Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China)

  • Yunfei Ma

    (College of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017, China
    Key Laboratory of Smart City and Environment Modeling of Higher Education Institute, Urumqi 830017, China)

Abstract

Modeling land use and land cover (LULC) change is important for understanding its spatiotemporal trends and plays a crucial role in land use planning and natural resources management. To this end, this study assessed the spatiotemporal characteristics of the LULC changes in Urumqi city between 1980 and 2020. In addition, future LULC was successfully projected for 2030 and 2050 under different scenarios based on the FLUS model. This model was validated using actual and simulated land use data for 2020. The kappa coefficient and figure of merit of the simulation results for 2020 were 0.87 and 0.114, respectively, indicating that the simulation accuracy was satisfactory. The results demonstrated that grassland was the major land use type, with the area accounting for more than 50% of the study area. From 1980 to 2020, urban land greatly expanded, while grassland decreased significantly. Urban land increased from 353.51 km 2 to 884.27 km 2 , while grassland decreased from 7903.4 km 2 to 7414.92 km 2 from 1980 to 2020. In addition, significant transitions mainly occurred between grasslands, cultivated lands and urban lands. Grassland and cultivated land were converted into urban land, resulting in rapid urban expansion over the last 40 years. From 1990 to 2000, grassland was converted into urban land with an area of 341.08 km 2 . Finally, the simulation results of the LULC showed that urban land is expected to increase under all three scenarios, and cultivated land, grassland and forest land are effectively protected under the Cultivated Land Protection Scenario (CPS) and Ecological Protection Scenario (EPS) compared to the Baseline Scenario (BLS). This study assessed the spatiotemporal characteristics and transitions of LULC between 1980 and 2020, and successfully projected LULC for 2035 and 2050 in Urumqi City in the arid and semi-arid regions of northwest China based on the FLUS model, which has not been investigated in previous studies.

Suggested Citation

  • Yusuyunjiang Mamitimin & Zibibula Simayi & Ayinuer Mamat & Bumairiyemu Maimaiti & Yunfei Ma, 2023. "FLUS Based Modeling of the Urban LULC in Arid and Semi-Arid Region of Northwest China: A Case Study of Urumqi City," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-14, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:6:p:4912-:d:1092816
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/6/4912/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/6/4912/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhou, Ting & Yang, Xi & Ke, Xinli, 2022. "Delimitation of urban growth boundaries by integratedly incorporating ecosystem conservation, cropland protection and urban compactness," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 468(C).
    2. Motuma Shiferaw Regasa & Michael Nones & Dereje Adeba, 2021. "A Review on Land Use and Land Cover Change in Ethiopian Basins," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-18, June.
    3. Doe, Benjamin & Amoako, Clifford & Adamtey, Ronald, 2022. "Spatial expansion and patterns of land use/land cover changes around Accra, Ghana – Emerging insights from Awutu Senya East Municipal Area," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    4. Yang, Xin & Zheng, Xin-Qi & Lv, Li-Na, 2012. "A spatiotemporal model of land use change based on ant colony optimization, Markov chain and cellular automata," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 233(C), pages 11-19.
    5. Huang, Daquan & Huang, Jing & Liu, Tao, 2019. "Delimiting urban growth boundaries using the CLUE-S model with village administrative boundaries," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 422-435.
    6. Jin, Hong & Li, Heping & Lee, Jia & Sun, Weitong, 2023. "Simulation analysis of rural land use using rate of change driven by population and economic dynamics - A case study of Huangguashan village in Chongqing, China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 475(C).
    7. Yang, Xin & Zheng, Xin-Qi & Chen, Rui, 2014. "A land use change model: Integrating landscape pattern indexes and Markov-CA," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 283(C), pages 1-7.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Han, Yu & Jia, Haifeng, 2017. "Simulating the spatial dynamics of urban growth with an integrated modeling approach: A case study of Foshan, China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 353(C), pages 107-116.
    2. Kang Liu & Chaozheng Zhang & Han Zhang & Hao Xu & Wen Xia, 2023. "Spatiotemporal Variation and Dynamic Simulation of Ecosystem Carbon Storage in the Loess Plateau Based on PLUS and InVEST Models," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-18, May.
    3. Yanan Li & Linghua Duo & Ming Zhang & Zhenhua Wu & Yanjun Guan, 2021. "Assessment and Estimation of the Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Landscape Patterns and Their Impact on Habitat Quality in Nanchang, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-19, October.
    4. Wang, Quan & Wang, Haijun & Chang, Ruihan & Zeng, Haoran & Bai, Xuepiao, 2022. "Dynamic simulation patterns and spatiotemporal analysis of land-use/land-cover changes in the Wuhan metropolitan area, China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 464(C).
    5. Selamawit Haftu Gebresellase & Zhiyong Wu & Huating Xu & Wada Idris Muhammad, 2023. "Scenario-Based LULC Dynamics Projection Using the CA–Markov Model on Upper Awash Basin (UAB), Ethiopia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-27, January.
    6. Shuqing Wang & Xinqi Zheng, 2023. "Dominant transition probability: combining CA-Markov model to simulate land use change," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(7), pages 6829-6847, July.
    7. Dan Yi & Xi Guo & Yi Han & Jie Guo & Minghao Ou & Xiaomin Zhao, 2022. "Coupling Ecological Security Pattern Establishment and Construction Land Expansion Simulation for Urban Growth Boundary Delineation: Framework and Application," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-18, March.
    8. Jie Liu & Lang Zhang & Qingping Zhang, 2019. "The Development Simulation of Urban Green Space System Layout Based on the Land Use Scenario: A Case Study of Xuchang City, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-19, December.
    9. Wang, Han & Tian, Fuan & Wu, Jianxian & Nie, Xin, 2023. "Is China forest landscape restoration (FLR) worth it? A cost-benefit analysis and non-equilibrium ecological view," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    10. Michel Opelele Omeno & Ying Yu & Wenyi Fan & Tolerant Lubalega & Chen Chen & Claude Kachaka Sudi Kaiko, 2021. "Analysis of the Impact of Land-Use/Land-Cover Change on Land-Surface Temperature in the Villages within the Luki Biosphere Reserve," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-23, October.
    11. Meisam Jafari & Hamid Majedi & Seyed Masoud Monavari & Ali Asghar Alesheikh & Mirmasoud Kheirkhah Zarkesh, 2016. "Dynamic Simulation of Urban Expansion Based on Cellular Automata and Logistic Regression Model: Case Study of the Hyrcanian Region of Iran," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(8), pages 1-18, August.
    12. Changqing Sun & Yulong Bao & Battsengel Vandansambuu & Yuhai Bao, 2022. "Simulation and Prediction of Land Use/Cover Changes Based on CLUE-S and CA-Markov Models: A Case Study of a Typical Pastoral Area in Mongolia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-21, November.
    13. Liu, Dongya & Zheng, Xinqi & Zhang, Chunxiao & Wang, Hongbin, 2017. "A new temporal–spatial dynamics method of simulating land-use change," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 350(C), pages 1-10.
    14. Shivangi S. Somvanshi & Oshin Bhalla & Phool Kunwar & Madhulika Singh & Prafull Singh, 2020. "Monitoring spatial LULC changes and its growth prediction based on statistical models and earth observation datasets of Gautam Budh Nagar, Uttar Pradesh, India," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 1073-1091, February.
    15. Chasia, Stanley & Olang, Luke O. & Sitoki, Lewis, 2023. "Modelling of land-use/cover change trajectories in a transboundary catchment of the Sio-Malaba-Malakisi Region in East Africa using the CLUE-s model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 476(C).
    16. Xiaoyang Liu & Weihao Shi & Sen Zhang, 2022. "Progress of Research on Urban Growth Boundary and Its Implications in Chinese Studies Based on Bibliometric Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(24), pages 1-18, December.
    17. Zhang, Yan & Chang, Xia & Liu, Yanfang & Lu, Yanchi & Wang, Yiheng & Liu, Yaolin, 2021. "Urban expansion simulation under constraint of multiple ecosystem services (MESs) based on cellular automata (CA)-Markov model: Scenario analysis and policy implications," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    18. Ruci Wang & Ahmed Derdouri & Yuji Murayama, 2018. "Spatiotemporal Simulation of Future Land Use/Cover Change Scenarios in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-18, June.
    19. Somayeh Ahani & Hashem Dadashpoor, 2021. "Urban growth containment policies for the guidance and control of peri-urbanization: a review and proposed framework," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(10), pages 14215-14244, October.
    20. Esther Shupel Ibrahim & Bello Ahmed & Oludunsin Tunrayo Arodudu & Jibril Babayo Abubakar & Bitrus Akila Dang & Mahmoud Ibrahim Mahmoud & Halilu Ahmad Shaba & Sanusi Bello Shamaki, 2022. "Desertification in the Sahel Region: A Product of Climate Change or Human Activities? A Case of Desert Encroachment Monitoring in North-Eastern Nigeria Using Remote Sensing Techniques," Geographies, MDPI, vol. 2(2), pages 1-23, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:6:p:4912-:d:1092816. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.