IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jlands/v12y2023i5p1065-d1146524.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Spatiotemporal Variation and Dynamic Simulation of Ecosystem Carbon Storage in the Loess Plateau Based on PLUS and InVEST Models

Author

Listed:
  • Kang Liu

    (College of Economics and Management, Northwest A&F University, Xianyang 712100, China)

  • Chaozheng Zhang

    (College of Economics and Management, Northwest A&F University, Xianyang 712100, China)

  • Han Zhang

    (College of Economics and Management, Northwest A&F University, Xianyang 712100, China)

  • Hao Xu

    (School of Tourism and Resources and Environment, Ankang University, Ankang 725000, China)

  • Wen Xia

    (School of Mathematics and Statistics, Ankang University, Ankang 725000, China)

Abstract

Terrestrial ecosystems play an important role in carbon reduction and sequestration, and it is important to explore the carbon sequestration potential of terrestrial ecosystems under different land use scenarios to enhance the regional carbon storage potential. We analysed land use changes in the Loess Plateau, an important ecological barrier in China, from 2000 to 2020, used the PLUS model to predict land use patterns under different scenarios in 2035, and applied the InVEST model to assess carbon storage from 2000 to 2035. The findings were as follows: (1) Cropland in the study area decreased significantly from 2000 to 2020, and forests, waters, and construction land showed an increasing trend. The area of cropland further decreased under the natural growth and ecological protection scenarios, the area of grassland decreased significantly under the cropland protection scenario, and forests and waters were effectively protected under the natural development, ecological protection, and cropland protection scenarios. (2) Carbon storage in the Loess Plateau has increased by 28 Tg (0.56%) over the past 20 years. Compared with those in 2020, by 2035, carbon storage under the natural development, ecological protection, and cropland protection scenarios will increase by 30, 44, and 21 Tg, respectively. (3) Carbon storage has obvious spatial heterogeneity, with high carbon density in the northern Qinling Mountains, Taihang Mountains, and Lvliang Mountains and low carbon density in Erdos City and its surrounding areas. Regional differences in carbon density are closely related to the spatial distribution of land use types. (4) Carbon storage showed an inverted V-shaped trend with the increase in elevation. Land use change is the main reason for the increase or decrease in carbon storage under different scenarios. Compared with the other two scenarios, the ecological protection scenario not only protects the ecological environment but also has a strong carbon storage potential, which may be significant for guiding the formulation of future land use planning on the Loess Plateau.

Suggested Citation

  • Kang Liu & Chaozheng Zhang & Han Zhang & Hao Xu & Wen Xia, 2023. "Spatiotemporal Variation and Dynamic Simulation of Ecosystem Carbon Storage in the Loess Plateau Based on PLUS and InVEST Models," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-18, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:12:y:2023:i:5:p:1065-:d:1146524
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/12/5/1065/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/12/5/1065/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yang, Xin & Zheng, Xin-Qi & Lv, Li-Na, 2012. "A spatiotemporal model of land use change based on ant colony optimization, Markov chain and cellular automata," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 233(C), pages 11-19.
    2. Huang, Daquan & Huang, Jing & Liu, Tao, 2019. "Delimiting urban growth boundaries using the CLUE-S model with village administrative boundaries," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 422-435.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yusuyunjiang Mamitimin & Zibibula Simayi & Ayinuer Mamat & Bumairiyemu Maimaiti & Yunfei Ma, 2023. "FLUS Based Modeling of the Urban LULC in Arid and Semi-Arid Region of Northwest China: A Case Study of Urumqi City," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-14, March.
    2. Wang, Han & Tian, Fuan & Wu, Jianxian & Nie, Xin, 2023. "Is China forest landscape restoration (FLR) worth it? A cost-benefit analysis and non-equilibrium ecological view," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    3. Yang Zhang & Xiaojiang Xia & Jiandong Li & Luge Xing & Chengchao Yang & Haofeng Wang & Xiaoai Dai & Jue Wang, 2024. "Simulation of Urban Growth Boundary under the Guidance of Stock Development: A Case Study of Wuhan City," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-22, July.
    4. Michel Opelele Omeno & Ying Yu & Wenyi Fan & Tolerant Lubalega & Chen Chen & Claude Kachaka Sudi Kaiko, 2021. "Analysis of the Impact of Land-Use/Land-Cover Change on Land-Surface Temperature in the Villages within the Luki Biosphere Reserve," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-23, October.
    5. Meisam Jafari & Hamid Majedi & Seyed Masoud Monavari & Ali Asghar Alesheikh & Mirmasoud Kheirkhah Zarkesh, 2016. "Dynamic Simulation of Urban Expansion Based on Cellular Automata and Logistic Regression Model: Case Study of the Hyrcanian Region of Iran," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(8), pages 1-18, August.
    6. Changqing Sun & Yulong Bao & Battsengel Vandansambuu & Yuhai Bao, 2022. "Simulation and Prediction of Land Use/Cover Changes Based on CLUE-S and CA-Markov Models: A Case Study of a Typical Pastoral Area in Mongolia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-21, November.
    7. Liu, Dongya & Zheng, Xinqi & Zhang, Chunxiao & Wang, Hongbin, 2017. "A new temporal–spatial dynamics method of simulating land-use change," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 350(C), pages 1-10.
    8. Xiaoyang Liu & Weihao Shi & Sen Zhang, 2022. "Progress of Research on Urban Growth Boundary and Its Implications in Chinese Studies Based on Bibliometric Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(24), pages 1-18, December.
    9. Somayeh Ahani & Hashem Dadashpoor, 2021. "Urban growth containment policies for the guidance and control of peri-urbanization: a review and proposed framework," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(10), pages 14215-14244, October.
    10. Esther Shupel Ibrahim & Bello Ahmed & Oludunsin Tunrayo Arodudu & Jibril Babayo Abubakar & Bitrus Akila Dang & Mahmoud Ibrahim Mahmoud & Halilu Ahmad Shaba & Sanusi Bello Shamaki, 2022. "Desertification in the Sahel Region: A Product of Climate Change or Human Activities? A Case of Desert Encroachment Monitoring in North-Eastern Nigeria Using Remote Sensing Techniques," Geographies, MDPI, vol. 2(2), pages 1-23, April.
    11. Riao, Dao & Guga, Suri & Bao, Yongbin & Liu, Xingping & Tong, Zhijun & Zhang, Jiquan, 2023. "Non-overlap of suitable areas of agro-climatic resources and main planting areas is the main reason for potato drought disaster in Inner Mongolia, China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    12. Grzegorz Oleniacz, 2021. "Czekanowski’s Diagram and Spatial Data Cluster Analysis for Planning Sustainable Development of Rural Areas," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-13, October.
    13. Tomasz Zaborowski, 2021. "It’s All about Details. Why the Polish Land Policy Framework Fails to Manage Designation of Developable Land," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-27, August.
    14. Courage Kamusoko & Yukio Wada & Toru Furuya & Shunsuke Tomimura & Mitsuru Nasu & Khamma Homsysavath, 2013. "Simulating Future Forest Cover Changes in Pakxeng District, Lao People’s Democratic Republic (PDR): Implications for Sustainable Forest Management," Land, MDPI, vol. 2(1), pages 1-19, January.
    15. Xiaohuan Xie & Haifeng Deng & Shengyuan Li & Zhonghua Gou, 2024. "Optimizing Land Use for Carbon Neutrality: Integrating Photovoltaic Development in Lingbao, Henan Province," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-18, January.
    16. Jian Gong & Jianxin Yang & Wenwu Tang, 2015. "Spatially Explicit Landscape-Level Ecological Risks Induced by Land Use and Land Cover Change in a National Ecologically Representative Region in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-24, November.
    17. Yu Chen & Shuangshuang Liu & Wenbo Ma & Qian Zhou, 2023. "Assessment of the Carrying Capacity and Suitability of Spatial Resources and the Environment and Diagnosis of Obstacle Factors in the Yellow River Basin," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(4), pages 1-26, February.
    18. Gupta, Pranav & Bharat, Alka & McCullen, Nick & Kershaw, Tristan, 2025. "Promoting sustainable land management: An innovative approach to land-take decision-making," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    19. Mansour, Shawky & Al-Belushi, Mohammed & Al-Awadhi, Talal, 2020. "Monitoring land use and land cover changes in the mountainous cities of Oman using GIS and CA-Markov modelling techniques," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    20. Haozhe Zhang & Qingyuan Yang & Huiming Zhang & Lulu Zhou & Hongji Chen, 2021. "Optimization of Land Use Based on the Source and Sink Landscape of Ecosystem Services: A Case Study of Fengdu County in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-24, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:12:y:2023:i:5:p:1065-:d:1146524. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.