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New rules, new game? The effects of the away goals rule removal and video assistant referee adoption on game dynamics in UEFA Champions League ties

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  • Yildirim, Mustafa
  • Bilman, Mustafa Erhan

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of two recent rule changes in European soccer: the abolition of the away goals rule (AGR) and the introduction of the Video Assistant Referee (VAR) system. Specifically, it examines how these changes affect game dynamics, focusing on playing style indicators and disciplinary outcomes within the UEFA Champions League. We collect data on 1244 two-legged ties (2488 individual matches), spanning the seasons from the start of 2000/01 to the play-off stage of 2023/24. By analyzing the data at both the aggregate tie and individual leg levels and controlling for an extensive array of confounding variables, we challenge UEFA’s rationale for discontinuing the AGR. Contrary to UEFA’s justification for its removal, our findings reveal that the AGR promotes offensive rather than defensive play. Our findings regarding the VAR accord with the predominant view in the literature: less referee bias against away teams and increased aversion to risky tackles, hence, fewer disciplinary infractions. Given that the ties played under the AGR are found to be more competitive and thus more entertaining, our key policy implication is that UEFA should consider reinstating the AGR. Our results also suggest that the VAR should remain in place as it stimulates fairness and rule-abiding play.

Suggested Citation

  • Yildirim, Mustafa & Bilman, Mustafa Erhan, 2025. "New rules, new game? The effects of the away goals rule removal and video assistant referee adoption on game dynamics in UEFA Champions League ties," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 78-96.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:47:y:2025:i:1:p:78-96
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.12.003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Francisco J. Bahamonde-Birke & Ramón Andrés Bahamonde-Birke, 2023. "About the “Away Goals Rule†in Association Football. Does Scrapping the Rule Increase the Fairness of the Game?," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 24(3), pages 310-328, April.
    2. Roberto Gásquez & Vicente Royuela, 2016. "The Determinants of International Football Success: A Panel Data Analysis of the Elo Rating," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 97(2), pages 125-141, June.
    3. Csató, László, 2023. "How to avoid uncompetitive games? The importance of tie-breaking rules," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 307(3), pages 1260-1269.
    4. Lago-Peñas Carlos & Rey Ezequiel & Kalén Anton, 2019. "How does Video Assistant Referee (VAR) modify the game in elite soccer?," International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(4), pages 646-653, July.
    5. Rui Bao & Bo Han, 2024. "The influence of the video assistance referee (VAR) on the English Premier League," International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(3), pages 241-250, May.
    6. Thadeu Gasparetto & Kirill Loktionov, 2023. "Does the Video Assistant Referee (VAR) mitigate referee bias on professional football?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(11), pages 1-11, November.
    7. Hvattum, Lars Magnus & Arntzen, Halvard, 2010. "Using ELO ratings for match result prediction in association football," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 460-470, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Match venue; Offense; Defense; UEFA rule changes; Football dynamics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
    • D47 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Market Design
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • Z20 - Other Special Topics - - Sports Economics - - - General

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