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Mérhetnénk jobban a csapatok erejét a Bajnokok Ligájában? Fontos megjegyzés az Európai Labdarúgó-szövetség számára
[How to better measure team strength in the Champions League. An important message to the European Football Confederation]

Author

Listed:
  • Csató, László
  • Bodnár, Gergely

Abstract

A 2024/2025-ös idénytől kezdve alapvetően megváltozik a labdarúgás legrangosabb európai kupasorozata, az UEFA Bajnokok Ligája lebonyolítási rendszere: a nyolc hagyományos négycsapatos csoportban játszott oda-vissza vágós körmérkőzés helyett egyetlen liga lesz, ahol a 36 induló négy-négy mérkőzést fog játszani hazai pályán és idegenben. A továbbjutáshoz a nyolc mérkőzés eredményei alapján rangsorolják a csapatokat, ezért fontos szerepe lesz az ellenfelek megválasztásának, ami a csapatok teljesítményének minél jobb előzetes becslése által érhető el. Kutatásunk ehhez a kérdéshez kíván hozzájárulni. Logisztikus regressziós modellek segítségével vizsgáljuk a kiemeléshez jelenleg használt UEFA-klubkoefficiens és a csapatok teljes múltbeli teljesítményét tükröző Élő-pontszám előrejelző képességét. Eredményeink szerint a jelenlegi FIFA-világranglista alapjául is szolgáló Élő-pontszám egyértelműen jobb választás, ezért a későbbi igazságtalanságok mérséklésére a Bajnokok Ligája reformja keretében ajánlott az együtthatók számításának felülvizsgálata.* Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: C44, C52, Z20.

Suggested Citation

  • Csató, László & Bodnár, Gergely, 2023. "Mérhetnénk jobban a csapatok erejét a Bajnokok Ligájában? Fontos megjegyzés az Európai Labdarúgó-szövetség számára [How to better measure team strength in the Champions League. An important message," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 813-827.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:2134
    DOI: 10.18414/KSZ.2023.7-8.813
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. László Csató, 2020. "The UEFA Champions League seeding is not strategy-proof since the 2015/16 season," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 292(1), pages 161-169, September.
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    5. Jeroen Schokkaert & Johan Swinnen, 2016. "Uncertainty of Outcome Is Higher in the Champions League Than in the European Cup," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 17(2), pages 115-147, February.
    6. Roberto Gásquez & Vicente Royuela, 2016. "The Determinants of International Football Success: A Panel Data Analysis of the Elo Rating," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 97(2), pages 125-141, June.
    7. Gergely Csurilla & András Gyimesi & Erika Kendelényi-Gulyás & Tamás Sterbenz, 2021. "Where is victory most certain? The level of luck-based noise factor in Summer Olympic Games," Acta Oeconomica, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 71(3), pages 369-386, September.
    8. Hvattum, Lars Magnus & Arntzen, Halvard, 2010. "Using ELO ratings for match result prediction in association football," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 460-470, July.
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    12. László Csató, 2017. "On the ranking of a Swiss system chess team tournament," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 254(1), pages 17-36, July.
    13. Francisco Triguero‐Ruiz & Antonio Avila‐Cano, 2023. "On competitive balance in the group stage of the UEFA Champions League," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 70(3), pages 231-248, July.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C44 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Operations Research; Statistical Decision Theory
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • Z20 - Other Special Topics - - Sports Economics - - - General

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