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Competitive balance in the UEFA Champions League group stage: Novel measures show no evidence of decline

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  • László Csató

    (Institute for Computer Science and Control (SZTAKI), Hungarian Research Network (HUN-REN)
    Corvinus University of Budapest)

  • Dóra Gréta Petróczy

    (Budapest Metropolitan University)

Abstract

Competitive balance, which refers to the level of control teams have over a sports competition, is a crucial indicator for tournament organisers. According to previous studies, competitive balance has significantly declined in the UEFA Champions League group stage over the recent decades. Our paper introduces alternative indices to investigate this issue. Two ex ante measures are based on Elo ratings, and four dynamic concentration indicators compare the final group ranking to reasonable benchmarks. Using these indices, we find no evidence of any long-run trend in the competitive balance of the UEFA Champions League group stage between the 2003/04 and 2023/24 seasons.

Suggested Citation

  • László Csató & Dóra Gréta Petróczy, 2025. "Competitive balance in the UEFA Champions League group stage: Novel measures show no evidence of decline," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 352(1), pages 105-120, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:352:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1007_s10479-025-06780-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s10479-025-06780-9
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    JEL classification:

    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • Z20 - Other Special Topics - - Sports Economics - - - General
    • Z21 - Other Special Topics - - Sports Economics - - - Industry Studies

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