IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jpolmo/v45y2023i4p817-832.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Where is the EU economy headed? The international dimension

Author

Listed:
  • Bertoldi, Moreno
  • Eriksgård, Annika
  • Orsini, Kristian
  • Pfeiffer, Philipp

Abstract

Since 2020, the EU economy has been hit by a number of external shocks that have had a major impact on growth, employment and inflation. As the outlook for the world remains highly uncertain, international conditions are likely to continue to affect the EU’s economic performance until a more stable equilibrium is reached. The question is in which direction and by how much? This article presents three possible scenarios (baseline, adverse, and benign), which provide some impact quantification through the use of the European Commission’s Global Multicountry model, and considers the potential implications of these scenarios on where the EU economy is headed. The final part of the article discusses how the EU, by better reconciling its domestic and foreign agenda, can play a more proactive role in determining international conditions, leading to more favourable equilibria.

Suggested Citation

  • Bertoldi, Moreno & Eriksgård, Annika & Orsini, Kristian & Pfeiffer, Philipp, 2023. "Where is the EU economy headed? The international dimension," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(4), pages 817-832.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:45:y:2023:i:4:p:817-832
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.07.005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0161893823000728
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.07.005?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Albonico, Alice & Calès, Ludovic & Cardani, Roberta & Croitorov, Olga & Ferroni, Filippo & Giovannini, Massimo & Hohberger, Stefan & Pataracchia, Beatrice & Pericoli, Filippo & Raciborski, Rafal & Rat, 2017. "The Global Multi-Country Model (GM): an Estimated DSGE Model for the Euro Area Countries," Working Papers 2017-10, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
    2. Bertoldi, Moreno & Orsini, Kristian, 2020. "US and euro area growth performances: Are they so different?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 860-877.
    3. Bańkowski, Krzysztof & Bouabdallah, Othman & Domingues Semeano, João & Dorrucci, Ettore & Freier, Maximilian & Jacquinot, Pascal & Modery, Wolfgang & Rodríguez-Vives, Marta & Valenta, Vilém & Zorell, , 2022. "The economic impact of Next Generation EU: a euro area perspective," Occasional Paper Series 291, European Central Bank.
    4. Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Freier, Maximilian & Muggenthaler, Philip, 2022. "Euro area fiscal policy response to the war in Ukraine and its macroeconomic impact," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 5.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cristina Checherita-Westphal & Sebastian Hauptmeier & Nadine Leiner-Killinger, 2022. "The Euro Area in Between Crises? Considerations on Fiscal Policies and Rules," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 57(5), pages 278-282, September.
    2. Stefan Hohberger & Marco Ratto & Lukas Vogel, 2020. "The euro exchange rate and Germany's trade surplus," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(1), pages 85-103, March.
    3. Albonico, Alice & Tirelli, Patrizio, 2020. "Financial crises and sudden stops: Was the European monetary union crisis different?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 13-26.
    4. Albonico, Alice & Calés, Ludovic & Cardani, Roberta & Croitorov, Olga & Ferroni, Filippo & Giovannini, Massimo & Hohberger, Stefan & Pataracchia, Beatrice & Pericoli, Filippo Maria & Raciborski, Rafal, 2019. "Comparing post-crisis dynamics across Euro Area countries with the Global Multi-country model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 242-273.
    5. Mirko Licchetta & Giovanni Mattozzi & Rafal Raciborski & Rupert Willis, 2022. "Economic Adjustment in the Euro Area and the United States during the COVID-19 Crisis," European Economy - Discussion Papers 160, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    6. Daniel Rees, 2020. "What Comes Next?," BIS Working Papers 898, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Philipp Pfeiffer & Janos Varga & Jan in 't Veld, 2021. "Quantifying Spillovers of Next Generation EU Investment," European Economy - Discussion Papers 144, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    8. Horst, Maximilian & Neyer, Ulrike & Stempel, Daniel, 2020. "Asymmetric macroeconomic effects of QE-induced increases in excess reserves in a monetary union," DICE Discussion Papers 346, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).
    9. Klug, Thorsten & Mayer, Eric & Schuler, Tobias, 2022. "The corporate saving glut and the current account in Germany," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    10. Nicoletta Batini & Alessandro Cantelmo & Giovanni Melina & Stefania Villa, 2021. "How loose, how tight? A measure of monetary and fiscal stance for the euro area," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(4), pages 1536-1556.
    11. Dr. Matthias Burgert & Philipp Pfeiffer & Werner Roeger, 2021. "Fiscal policy in a monetary union with downward nominal wage rigidity," Working Papers 2021-16, Swiss National Bank.
    12. Varthalitis, Petros, 2019. "FIR-GEM: A SOE-DSGE Model for fiscal policy analysis in Ireland," Papers WP620, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    13. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Tiziano Ropele, 2020. "Inflation Expectations and Firm Decisions: New Causal Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(1), pages 165-219.
    14. Cardani, Roberta & Hohberger, Stefan & Pfeiffer, Philipp & Vogel, Lukas, 2022. "Domestic versus foreign drivers of trade (im)balances: How robust is evidence from estimated DSGE models?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    15. Giovannini, Massimo & Pfeiffer, Philipp & Ratto, Marco, 2021. "Efficient and robust inference of models with occasionally binding constraints," Working Papers 2021-03, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
    16. Niklas Garnadt & Ulrike M. Malmendier & Lars Other, 2022. "Geldpolitik im Zielkonflikt [Monetary policy in conflict with objectives]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 102(12), pages 910-911, December.
    17. Rodríguez-Vives Marta, 2023. "Towards a Common EU Debt: Where Do We Stand?," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Sciendo, vol. 58(6), pages 305-310, December.
    18. Thierry Betti & Thomas Coudert, 2022. "How harmful are cuts in public employment and wage in times of high unemployment?," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(1), pages 247-277, January.
    19. Cristina Badarau & Florence Huart & Ibrahima Sangaré, 2021. "Households saving and financial spillovers in the Euro area," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(4), pages 660-687, October.
    20. Ioana Manuela Mîndrican, 2023. "Monetary policy measures and strategies in the context of the adoption of the euro currency," Journal of Financial Studies, Institute of Financial Studies, vol. 8(14), pages 84-97, May.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:45:y:2023:i:4:p:817-832. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505735 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.