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Modeling of container throughput in Northern Adriatic ports over the period 1990–2013

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  • Twrdy, Elen
  • Batista, Milan

Abstract

This study presents dynamic models to forecast container throughput in the North Adriatic ports of Koper, Trieste, Venice, Ravenna, and Rijeka. Based on the numbers derived, we found a simple but efficient model to forecast the likelihood of increasing or decreasing traffic from year to year. The models are prepared based on available data; they are the Markov-chain annual growth rate model, a time-series trend model, a time-series trend model with periodical terms, and the gray system model. In the second part of the study, we explore a model for analyzing cooperation/competition relationships between these ports using a generalized Lotka–Volterra dynamic system.

Suggested Citation

  • Twrdy, Elen & Batista, Milan, 2016. "Modeling of container throughput in Northern Adriatic ports over the period 1990–2013," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 131-142.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jotrge:v:52:y:2016:i:c:p:131-142
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2016.03.005
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    Cited by:

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    3. Yi Xiao & Minghu Xie & Yi Hu & Ming Yi, 2023. "Effective multi‐step ahead container throughput forecasting under the complex context," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(7), pages 1823-1843, November.
    4. Sun, Yuying & Hong, Yongmiao & Lee, Tae-Hwy & Wang, Shouyang & Zhang, Xinyu, 2021. "Time-varying model averaging," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(2), pages 974-992.
    5. Francesco Parola & Giovanni Satta & Theo Notteboom & Luca Persico, 2021. "Revisiting traffic forecasting by port authorities in the context of port planning and development," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 23(3), pages 444-494, September.
    6. Jin, Jiahuan & Ma, Mingyu & Jin, Huan & Cui, Tianxiang & Bai, Ruibin, 2023. "Container terminal daily gate in and gate out forecasting using machine learning methods," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 163-174.
    7. FOTIA Alexandru & TECLEAN Cezar, 2018. "The Impact of Intermodal Connectivity of Transport Networks on Net Exports in the European Union Member States," European Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, Bucharest Economic Academy, issue 01, March.
    8. Zhang, Qiang & Yan, Kai & Yang, Dong, 2021. "Port system evolution in Chinese coastal regions: A provincial perspective," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    9. M. Milenković & N. Milosavljevic & N. Bojović & S. Val, 2021. "Container flow forecasting through neural networks based on metaheuristics," Operational Research, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 965-997, June.
    10. Feng, Hongxiang & Grifoll, Manel & Zheng, Pengjun, 2019. "From a feeder port to a hub port: The evolution pathways, dynamics and perspectives of Ningbo-Zhoushan port (China)," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 21-35.
    11. Anqiang Huang & Xinjun Liu & Changrui Rao & Yi Zhang & Yifan He, 2022. "A New Container Throughput Forecasting Paradigm under COVID-19," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-20, March.

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