Explaining the diffusion of Dutch express bikeways through QCA: The importance of pilots, collaboration and external funding

Since the early 2000s, Dutch governments have jointly invested in hundreds of intermunicipal express bikeways. This was prompted by rising motorway congestion, and local wishes to promote more active, sustainable mobility. Using crisp Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA), our study examines 53 Dutch express bikeways initiated before 2017, probing why 23 routes were successfully completed by 2020. Drawing on theories of policy diffusion, two principal forms of explanation are explored, external (learning, emulation and coercion) and internal (collaboration, hold-ups). The study is based on original survey and interview data collected by the authors. The analysis identifies three paths towards successful completion, namely collaboration and external funding, ‘easy’ pilots, and effective municipal coordination. Conversely, we identify three pathways that lead to non-completion, which encompass the absence of co-funding, missing coordination, and overambitious projects. In view of widespread difficulties to build new (large-scale) cycling infrastructure for active and sustainable travel, this study highlights the significance of regional collaboration and context specificity, with auxiliary roles for national learning and funding.