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Calibration of Subjective Probability Judgments in a Naturalistic Setting

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  • Johnson, Johnnie E. V.
  • Bruce, Alistair C.

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  • Johnson, Johnnie E. V. & Bruce, Alistair C., 2001. "Calibration of Subjective Probability Judgments in a Naturalistic Setting," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 265-290, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jobhdp:v:85:y:2001:i:2:p:265-290
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    1. Figlewski, Stephen, 1979. "Subjective Information and Market Efficiency in a Betting Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(1), pages 75-88, February.
    2. Lopes, Lola L., 1996. "When Time Is of the Essence: Averaging, Aspiration, and the Short Run," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 179-189, March.
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    6. Northcraft, Gregory B. & Neale, Margaret A., 1987. "Experts, amateurs, and real estate: An anchoring-and-adjustment perspective on property pricing decisions," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 84-97, February.
    7. Curley, Shawn P. & Yates, J. Frank & Abrams, Richard A., 1986. "Psychological sources of ambiguity avoidance," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 230-256, October.
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    9. Malhotra, Naresh K, 1982. "Information Load and Consumer Decision Making," Journal of Consumer Research, Oxford University Press, vol. 8(4), pages 419-430, March.
    10. Suantak, Liana & Bolger, Fergus & Ferrell, William R., 1996. "The Hard-Easy Effect in Subjective Probability Calibration," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 201-221, August.
    11. Sniezek, Janet A. & Paese, Paul W. & Switzer, Fred S., 1990. "The effect of choosing on confidence in choice," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 264-282, August.
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    13. Ali, Mukhtar M, 1979. "Some Evidence of the Efficiency of a Speculative Market," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 387-392, March.
    14. Ashton, Robert H., 1992. "Effects of justification and a mechanical aid on judgment performance," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 292-306, July.
    15. Smith, Vernon L, 1989. "Theory, Experiment and Economics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 151-169, Winter.
    16. Joyce, Ej & Biddle, Gc, 1981. "Anchoring And Adjustment In Probabilistic Inference In Auditing," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 120-145.
    17. Waller, William S. & Shapiro, Brian & Sevcik, Galen, 1999. "Do cost-based pricing biases persist in laboratory markets?," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 717-739, November.
    18. Juslin, Peter, 1994. "The Overconfidence Phenomenon as a Consequence of Informal Experimenter-Guided Selection of Almanac Items," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 226-246, February.
    19. Asch, Peter & Malkiel, Burton G & Quandt, Richard E, 1984. "Market Efficiency in Racetrack Betting," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 57(2), pages 165-175, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ma, Tiejun & Tang, Leilei & McGroarty, Frank & Sung, Ming-Chien & Johnson, Johnnie E. V, 2016. "Time is money: Costing the impact of duration misperception in market prices," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 255(2), pages 397-410.
    2. Green, Lawrence & Sung, Ming-Chien & Ma, Tiejun & Johnson, Johnnie E. V., 2019. "To what extent can new web-based technology improve forecasts? Assessing the economic value of information derived from Virtual Globes and its rate of diffusion in a financial market," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 278(1), pages 226-239.
    3. Ryvkin, Dmitry & Krajč, Marian & Ortmann, Andreas, 2012. "Are the unskilled doomed to remain unaware?," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1012-1031.
    4. Bruce, Alistair C. & Johnson, Johnnie E.V., 2005. "Market ecology and decision behaviour in state-contingent claims markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 199-217, February.
    5. S Lessmann & M-C Sung & J E V Johnson, 2011. "Towards a methodology for measuring the true degree of efficiency in a speculative market," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 62(12), pages 2120-2132, December.
    6. Durbach, Ian N. & Stewart, Theodor J., 2012. "Modeling uncertainty in multi-criteria decision analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 223(1), pages 1-14.
    7. Sperb, Luis Felipe Costa & Sung, Ming-Chien & Johnson, Johnnie E.V. & Ma, Tiejun, 2019. "Keeping a weather eye on prediction markets: The influence of environmental conditions on forecasting accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 321-335.
    8. Durbach, Ian N. & Stewart, Theodor J., 2011. "An experimental study of the effect of uncertainty representation on decision making," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 214(2), pages 380-392, October.

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