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Secrecy of Bank of Japan's Yen intervention: Evidence of efficacy from intra-daily data

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  • Kim, Suk-Joong
  • Le, Anh Tu

Abstract

This paper examines the intraday effectiveness of the Bank of Japan (BOJ)'s foreign exchange interventions over the period May 13, 1991-March 16, 2004. The existing literature has generally failed to provide a comprehensive study on the effects of the BOJ's interventions, and particularly, the efficacy of public and secret operations. By dividing a 24-h trading day into three horizons, we show that the intraday evidence on the effects of official interventions documented in prior studies primarily came from publicly known interventions. In the case of secret interventions, although there were no clear impacts on the first moment of exchange rate returns, we found significant second moment responses. Specifically, covert operations were able to reduce the Yen/USD return volatility during both Tokyo and subsequent overnight market hours. Furthermore, our extended model on secret interventions reveals that when the BOJ completely concealed its transactions, undetected interventions were shown to be most effective in both reversing undesired trends and reducing excess return volatilities. On the other hand, those interventions that were rumoured were not as effective. Finally, the interventions conducted during the periods of 'oral interventions' were in general more effective in moving the exchange rate in the desired direction.

Suggested Citation

  • Kim, Suk-Joong & Le, Anh Tu, 2010. "Secrecy of Bank of Japan's Yen intervention: Evidence of efficacy from intra-daily data," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 369-394, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jjieco:v:24:y:2010:i:3:p:369-394
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kim, Suk-Joong & Sheen, Jeffrey, 2006. "Interventions in the Yen-dollar spot market: A story of price, volatility and volume," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(11), pages 3191-3214, November.
    2. Fatum, Rasmus & Hutchison, Michael, 2006. "Effectiveness of official daily foreign exchange market intervention operations in Japan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 199-219, March.
    3. Nagayasu, Jun, 2004. "The effectiveness of Japanese foreign exchange interventions during 1991-2001," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 84(3), pages 377-381, September.
    4. Hung, Juann H, 1997. "Intervention strategies and exchange rate volatility: a noise trading perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 779-793, September.
    5. Mark P. Taylor & Lucio Sarno, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective and, If So, How Does It Work?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 839-868, September.
    6. Beine, Michel, 2004. "Conditional covariances and direct central bank interventions in the foreign exchange markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1385-1411, June.
    7. Frenkel, Michael & Pierdzioch, Christian & Stadtmann, Georg, 2005. "The effects of Japanese foreign exchange market interventions on the yen/U.S. dollar exchange rate volatility," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 27-39.
    8. Dominguez, Kathryn M.E., 2006. "When do central bank interventions influence intra-daily and longer-term exchange rate movements?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(7), pages 1051-1071, November.
    9. Priscilla Chiu, 2003. "Transparency versus constructive ambiguity in foreign exchange intervention," BIS Working Papers 144, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Beine, Michel & Laurent, Sébastien & Palm, Franz C., 2009. "Central bank FOREX interventions assessed using realized moments," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 112-127, February.
    11. Kim, Suk-Joong, 2007. "Intraday evidence of efficacy of 1991-2004 Yen intervention by the Bank of Japan," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 341-360, October.
    12. Ito, Takatoshi & Yabu, Tomoyoshi, 2007. "What prompts Japan to intervene in the Forex market? A new approach to a reaction function," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 193-212, March.
    13. Chang, Yuanchen & Taylor, Stephen J., 1998. "Intraday effects of foreign exchange intervention by the Bank of Japan1," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 191-210, February.
    14. Beine, Michel & Bernal, Oscar, 2007. "Why do central banks intervene secretly?: Preliminary evidence from the BoJ," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 291-306, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dewachter, Hans & Erdemlioglu, Deniz & Gnabo, Jean-Yves & Lecourt, Christelle, 2014. "The intra-day impact of communication on euro-dollar volatility and jumps," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 131-154.
    2. repec:ksp:journ5:v:4:y:2017:i:1:p:1-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Chen, Yu-Lun & Gau, Yin-Feng, 2015. "Foreign exchange market intervention and price discovery," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 214-227.
    4. repec:eee:jimfin:v:75:y:2017:i:c:p:32-46 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Ronald McDonald & Xuxin Mao, 2016. "Japan's Currency Intervention Regimes: A Microstructural Analysis with Speculation and Sentiment," Working Papers 2016_06, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    6. Fatum, Rasmus & Yamamoto, Yohei, 2014. "Large versus small foreign exchange interventions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 114-123.

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