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Stocks with extreme past returns: Lotteries or insurance?

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  • Barinov, Alexander

Abstract

The paper shows that lottery-like stocks are hedges against unexpected increases in market volatility. The loading on the aggregate volatility risk factor explains the majority of low abnormal returns to stocks with high maximum returns in the past month (Bali et al., 2011) and high expected skewness (Boyer et al., 2010). Aggregate volatility risk also explains the new evidence that the maximum effect and the skewness effect are stronger for firms with high market to book or high expected probability of bankruptcy.

Suggested Citation

  • Barinov, Alexander, 2018. "Stocks with extreme past returns: Lotteries or insurance?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(3), pages 458-478.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:129:y:2018:i:3:p:458-478
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2018.06.007
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    5. Huang, Yin-Siang & Chiu, Junmao & Lin, Chih-Yung & Robin,, 2022. "The effect of Chinese lunar calendar on individual investors' trading," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    6. Tong Wang, 2023. "Bear Beta or Speculative Beta?—Reconciling the Evidence on Downside Risk Premium," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(1), pages 325-367.
    7. Tao, Ran & Brooks, Chris & Bell, Adrian R., 2020. "When is a MAX not the MAX? How news resolves information uncertainty," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 33-51.
    8. Md Hamid Uddin & Sarkar H. Kabir & Mohammad Kabir Hassan & Mohammed S. Hossain & Jia Liu, 2022. "Why do sukuks (Islamic bonds) need a different pricing model?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 2210-2234, April.
    9. Li, Xindan & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar & Yang, Xuewei, 2018. "Can financial innovation succeed by catering to behavioral preferences? Evidence from a callable options market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(1), pages 38-65.
    10. Baars, Maren & Mohrschladt, Hannes, 2024. "Preferences for maximum daily returns," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 220(C), pages 343-353.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Extreme returns; Skewness; Lottery; Idiosyncratic volatility; Aggregate volatility risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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