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Can Black Tulips stop Russia again?

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  • Duvanova, Dinissa
  • Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex
  • Zadorozhna, Olha

Abstract

Do the human costs of Russia’s war in Ukraine undermine the popular support for the Russian government? Although there is little evidence that the poor performance of the Russian military forces in Ukraine erodes domestic support for the government, region-specific war casualties may help fuel anti-war sentiment. The paper hypothesizes that publicly announced military deaths and obituaries published in the local news and social media groups can incite anti-war sentiment because they bring the human cost of the war into peoples’ homes. To evaluate this hypothesis, we use a hand-collected dataset of obituaries, published on the most popular social network in Russia, and analyze statistical connections between the announcements of war casualties and instances of various forms of political protests. The data support the casualties-protest connection, but find that obituaries of military servicemembers with non-Russian-sounding names are uncorrelated with protests even in their home regions, while the opposite is true for similar announcements with Slavic names. We speculate that the observed differences might reflect the intentional government policy of capitalizing on ethno-nationalist sentiment that has been cultivated for the support of Putin’s regime.

Suggested Citation

  • Duvanova, Dinissa & Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Zadorozhna, Olha, 2023. "Can Black Tulips stop Russia again?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 1274-1288.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jcecon:v:51:y:2023:i:4:p:1274-1288
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2023.06.009
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ruben Enikolopov & Alexey Makarin & Maria Petrova, 2023. "Online Corrigendum to “Social Media and Protest Participation: Evidence From Russia”," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(3), pages 1-24, May.
    2. Brown, J. David & Earle, John S. & Gehlbach, Scott, 2009. "Helping Hand or Grabbing Hand? State Bureaucracy and Privatization Effectiveness," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 103(2), pages 264-283, May.
    3. Ruben Enikolopov & Alexey Makarin & Maria Petrova, 2020. "Social Media and Protest Participation: Evidence From Russia," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(4), pages 1479-1514, July.
    4. Rosenfeld, Bryn, 2017. "Reevaluating the Middle-Class Protest Paradigm: A Case-Control Study of Democratic Protest Coalitions in Russia," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 111(4), pages 637-652, November.
    5. Szakonyi, David, 2019. "Princelings in the Private Sector: The Value of Nepotism," Quarterly Journal of Political Science, now publishers, vol. 14(4), pages 349-381, October.
    6. Robertson, Graeme B., 2007. "Strikes and Labor Organization in Hybrid Regimes," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 101(4), pages 781-798, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mikael Elinder & Oscar Erixson & Olle Hammar, 2024. "How has the war in Ukraine affected Russian sentiments?," Papers 2410.00663, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2024.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • F54 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - Colonialism; Imperialism; Postcolonialism
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War

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