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The Eurozone needs exit rules

Author

Listed:
  • Fahrholz, Christian
  • Wójcik, Cezary

Abstract

This study argues that the key issue for defining and solving the Eurozone’s (EZ) difficulties lies in readjusting the relationship between the centre and the periphery of the EZ. Our argument proceeds in two steps. Firstly, the basic finance problem of a centre-periphery system is captured by a threat game with complete but imperfect information. To get close to the essence of the current EZ sovereign debt crisis we analyse to what extent a ‘troubled’ periphery member can negotiate a bailout from the centre due to the existence of a negative externality arising from its potential default. Secondly, we analyse how establishing ‘exit rules’ would shift the centre-periphery relationship in a way that safeguards the stability of the EZ. We demonstrate that such rules may help limit the scope for brinkmanship whereby fiscal problems in one member state create a negative externality for the rest of the EZ. We then discuss key policy implications concerning financial aspects of the centre-periphery relationship within the EZ.

Suggested Citation

  • Fahrholz, Christian & Wójcik, Cezary, 2013. "The Eurozone needs exit rules," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4665-4674.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:37:y:2013:i:11:p:4665-4674
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2013.05.016
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rubinstein, Ariel, 1982. "Perfect Equilibrium in a Bargaining Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 97-109, January.
    2. Christian Fahrholz & Cezary Wójcik, 2010. "The Bail-Out! Positive Political Economics of Greek-type Crises in the EMU," CESifo Working Paper Series 3178, CESifo Group Munich.
    3. Huck, Steffen & Valasek, Justin Mattias, 2012. "Institutionalizing eurozone exit: A modified NEWNEY approach," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Economics of Change SP II 2012-304, Social Science Research Center Berlin (WZB).
    4. Wildasin, David E., 1997. "Externalities and bailouts : hard and soft budget constraints in intergovernmental fiscal relations," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1843, The World Bank.
    5. Nash, John, 1953. "Two-Person Cooperative Games," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 21(1), pages 128-140, April.
    6. Albert Jaeger & Ludger Schuknecht, 2007. "Boom-Bust Phases in Asset Prices and Fiscal Policy Behavior," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(6), pages 45-66, November.
    7. Roel Beetsma & Massimo Giuliodori, 2010. "The Macroeconomic Costs and Benefits of the EMU and Other Monetary Unions: An Overview of Recent Research," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(3), pages 603-641, September.
    8. repec:kap:iaecre:v:17:y:2011:i:3:p:334-346 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Jakob von Weizsäcker & Jacques Delpla, 2010. "The Blue Bond Proposal," Policy Briefs 403, Bruegel.
    10. Backé, Peter & Wójcik, Cezary, 2008. "Credit booms, monetary integration and the new neoclassical synthesis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 458-470, March.
    11. Michael D. Bordo & Lars Jonung, 1999. "The Future of EMU: What Does the History of Monetary Unions Tell Us?," NBER Working Papers 7365, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Michael G. Arghyrou & John D. Tsoukalas, 2011. "The Greek Debt Crisis: Likely Causes, Mechanics and Outcomes," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(2), pages 173-191, February.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Fahrholz Christian & Freytag Andreas, 2014. "Finanzpolitik in Europa zwischen Subsidiarität und Vergemeinschaftung: Eine ordnungsökonomische Analyse / Between subsidiarity and Europeanization: An ordo-liberal perspective on financial policy," ORDO. Jahrbuch für die Ordnung von Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft, De Gruyter, vol. 65(1), pages 99-116, January.
    2. Christian Fahrholz & Andreas Freytag, 2012. "Will TARGET2-Balances be Reduced again after an End of the Crisis?," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 30-2012, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    3. Kappius, Robert & Neumärker, Bernhard, 2015. "Could exit rules be self-enforcing in the EU? The cases of France and Germany," The Constitutional Economics Network Working Papers 02-2015, University of Freiburg, Department of Economic Policy and Constitutional Economic Theory.
    4. Jürgen Matthes & Thomas Schuster, 2015. "Zum Umgang der Europäischen Währungsunion mit reformunwilligen Eurostaaten," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(04), pages 13-18, February.
    5. Robert Joliet & Rabia Nessah, 2016. "Euro White and Euro Yolk: Sovereign Debt Structure Stability in the Eurozone," International Game Theory Review (IGTR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(03), pages 1-15, September.
    6. Frank A.G. den Butter & Mathieu L.L. Segers, 2014. "Prospects for an EMU between Federalism and Nationalism," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-008/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
    7. Eva Lajtkepová, 2016. "Differences And Similarities In The Indebtedness Of Eu Member States After Last Financial Crisis," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 7(4), pages 551-563, December.
    8. repec:eee:riibaf:v:42:y:2017:i:c:p:1074-1088 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Bernal, Oscar & Gnabo, Jean-Yves & Guilmin, Grégory, 2016. "Economic policy uncertainty and risk spillovers in the Eurozone," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 24-45.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign debt crisis; Eurozone; Euro; Exit rules; Bailout; Political economics; Game theory;

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • H77 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - Intergovernmental Relations; Federalism
    • C70 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - General

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