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A model to forecast airport-level General Aviation demand

Listed author(s):
  • Li, Tao
  • Trani, Antonio A.
Registered author(s):

    General Aviation (GA) demand forecast plays an important role in aviation management, planning and policy making. The objective of this paper is to develop an airport-level GA demand forecast model. The GA demand at an airport is modeled as a function of social-economic and demographic factors, the availability of supply factors, the competition from the commercial aviation, the number of based aircraft, and the presence of a flight school. Our models suggest that the relative fuel price – fuel price compared with personal income – is a significant determinant of airport level GA demand. The elasticity of itinerant and local GA demand with respect to the relative fuel price is −0.43 and −0.52, respectively. Our results are compared with those reported in other studies. Furthermore, we made projections of GA demand for the airports in the Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) using three fuel price scenarios from the Energy Information Administration. Our projections under the “business-as-usual†fuel price scenario are close to those in the TAF. Our models could prove useful, for example, for the Federal Aviation Administration and airport planners to prepare airport-level GA demand forecast.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0969699714000957
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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Air Transport Management.

    Volume (Year): 40 (2014)
    Issue (Month): C ()
    Pages: 192-206

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jaitra:v:40:y:2014:i:c:p:192-206
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2014.07.003
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/journal-of-air-transport-management/

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    1. Wenbin Wei & Mark Hansen, 2003. "Cost Economics of Aircraft Size," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 37(2), pages 279-296, May.
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    3. Romero-Jordán, Desiderio & del Río, Pablo & Jorge-García, Marta & Burguillo, Mercedes, 2010. "Price and income elasticities of demand for passenger transport fuels in Spain. Implications for public policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 3898-3909, August.
    4. Adams, Zeno & Gerner, Mathias, 2012. "Cross hedging jet-fuel price exposure," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1301-1309.
    5. Gallo, Mariano, 2011. "A fuel surcharge policy for reducing road traffic greenhouse gas emissions," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 413-424, March.
    6. Clerides, Sofronis & Zachariadis, Theodoros, 2008. "The effect of standards and fuel prices on automobile fuel economy: An international analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2657-2672, September.
    7. Macharis, Cathy & Van Hoeck, Ellen & Pekin, Ethem & van Lier, Tom, 2010. "A decision analysis framework for intermodal transport: Comparing fuel price increases and the internalisation of external costs," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 550-561, August.
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