Validation and forecasting accuracy in models of climate change
Forecasting researchers, with few exceptions, have ignored the current major forecasting controversy: global warming and the role of climate modelling in resolving this challenging topic. In this paper, we take a forecaster's perspective in reviewing established principles for validating the atmospheric-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) used in most climate forecasting, and in particular by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Such models should reproduce the behaviours characterising key model outputs, such as global and regional temperature changes. We develop various time series models and compare them with forecasts based on one well-established AOGCM from the UK Hadley Centre. Time series models perform strongly, and structural deficiencies in the AOGCM forecasts are identified using encompassing tests. Regional forecasts from various GCMs had even more deficiencies. We conclude that combining standard time series methods with the structure of AOGCMs may result in a higher forecasting accuracy. The methodology described here has implications for improving AOGCMs and for the effectiveness of environmental control policies which are focussed on carbon dioxide emissions alone. Critically, the forecast accuracy in decadal prediction has important consequences for environmental planning, so its improvement through this multiple modelling approach should be a priority.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Clive W.J. Granger & Yongil Jeon, 2003. "Interactions between large macro models and time series analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 1-10.
- Zhang, Guoqiang & Eddy Patuwo, B. & Y. Hu, Michael, 1998. "Forecasting with artificial neural networks:: The state of the art," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 35-62, March.
- Fang, Yue, 2003. "Forecasting combination and encompassing tests," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 87-94.
- Green, Kesten C & Armstrong, J Scott & Soon, Willie, 2008. "Benchmark forecasts for climate change," MPRA Paper 12163, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Gardner, Everette Jr., 2006. "Exponential smoothing: The state of the art--Part II," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 637-666.
- Marc C. Kennedy & Anthony O'Hagan, 2001. "Bayesian calibration of computer models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 63(3), pages 425-464.
- Green, Kesten C. & Armstrong, J. Scott & Soon, Willie, 2009. "Validity of climate change forecasting for public policy decision making," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 826-832, October.
- Fildes, Robert, 1992. "The evaluation of extrapolative forecasting methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 81-98, June.
- Makridakis, Spyros & Hibon, Michele, 2000. "The M3-Competition: results, conclusions and implications," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 451-476.
- Armstrong, J. Scott & Fildes, Robert, 2006. "Making progress in forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 433-441.
- Jose, Victor Richmond R. & Winkler, Robert L., 2008. "Simple robust averages of forecasts: Some empirical results," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 163-169.
- Green, Kesten C. & Armstrong, J. Scott, 2007. "Global warming: Forecasts by scientists versus scientific forecasts," MPRA Paper 4361, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- George B. Kleindorfer & Liam O'Neill & Ram Ganeshan, 1998. "Validation in Simulation: Various Positions in the Philosophy of Science," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(8), pages 1087-1099, August.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:27:y:2011:i:4:p:968-995. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.