IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/intfin/v12y2002i2p119-137.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Time-varying forward bias and the expected excess return

Author

Listed:
  • Zhu, Zhen

Abstract

No abstract is available for this item.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhu, Zhen, 2002. "Time-varying forward bias and the expected excess return," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 119-137, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:12:y:2002:i:2:p:119-137
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1042-4431(01)00053-1
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lewis, Karen K., 1995. "Puzzles in international financial markets," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 37, pages 1913-1971, Elsevier.
    2. Domowitz, Ian & Hakkio, Craig S., 1985. "Conditional variance and the risk premium in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 47-66, August.
    3. Kenneth A. Froot & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1989. "Forward Discount Bias: Is it an Exchange Risk Premium?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 104(1), pages 139-161.
    4. Hai, Weike & Mark, Nelson C & Wu, Yangru, 1997. "Understanding Spot and Forward Exchange Rate Regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(6), pages 715-734, Nov.-Dec..
    5. Hodrick, Robert J. & Srivastava, Sanjay, 1986. "The covariation of risk premiums and expected future spot exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(1, Supple), pages 5-21, March.
    6. Hodrick, Robert J., 1989. "Risk, uncertainty, and exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 433-459, May.
    7. Wolff, Christian C, 1987. "Forward Exchange Rates and Expected Future Spot Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 187, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1982. "Interest rates and currency prices in a two-country world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 335-359.
    9. Wolff, Christian C P, 1987. "Forward Foreign Exchange Rates, Expected Spot Rates, and Premia: A Signal-Extraction Approach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 395-406, June.
    10. Mark, Nelson C & Wu, Yangru, 1998. "Rethinking Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity: The Role of Covariance Risk and Noise," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(451), pages 1686-1706, November.
    11. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
    12. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J., 1993. "On biases in the measurement of foreign exchange risk premiums," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 115-138, April.
    13. Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August.
    14. Baillie, Richard T. & P. Osterberg, William, 1997. "Central bank intervention and risk in the forward market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 483-497, November.
    15. William P. Osterberg, 1997. "Does intervention explain the forward discount puzzle?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q IV, pages 24-31.
    16. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
    17. Yangru Wu & Hua Zhang, 1996. "Asymmetry in forward exchange rate bias: A puzzling result," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 407-411, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kanniainen, Juho, 2007. "Rothschild-Stiglitz's definition of increasing risk and the relationship between volatility and risk premium," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 363-374.
    2. Juan Ángel Lafuente & Jesús Ruiz, 2002. "Time-Varying forward Bias and the Volatility of Risk Premium: a Monetary Explanation," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 0214, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    3. Imad A. Moosa, 2015. "The random walk versus unbiased efficiency: can we separate the wheat from the chaff?," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(2), pages 251-279, October.
    4. Imad A. Moosa, 2004. "What Is Wrong with Market-Based Forecasting of Exchange Rates?," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 3(2), pages 107-121, August.
    5. Michael D. Goldberg & Olesia Kozlova & Deniz Ozabaci, 2020. "Forward Rate Bias in Developed and Developing Countries: More Risky Not Less Rational," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-26, December.
    6. Chiou Wei, Song Zan & Zhu, Zhen, 2006. "Commodity convenience yield and risk premium determination: The case of the U.S. natural gas market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 523-534, July.
    7. Lafuente, Juan Angel & Ruiz, Jesus, 2006. "Monetary policy and forward bias for foreign exchange revisited: Empirical evidence from the US-UK exchange rate," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 238-264, March.
    8. Norman C. Miller, 2014. "Exchange Rate Economics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14981.
    9. Kumar, Satish & Trück, Stefan, 2014. "Unbiasedness and risk premiums in the Indian currency futures market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 13-32.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
    2. Jorge Andrés Muñoz Mendoza & Carmen Lissette Veloso Ramos & Sandra María Sepúlveda Yelpo & Carlos Leandro Delgado Fuentealba & Edinson Edgardo Cornejo Saavedra, 2022. "Exchange Markets and Stock Markets Integration in Latin-America," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 17(3), pages 1-24, Julio - S.
    3. Zhiguang Wang & Prasad Bidarkota, 2012. "Risk premia in forward foreign exchange rates: a comparison of signal extraction and regression methods," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 21-51, February.
    4. Kerstin Bernoth & Jürgen von Hagen & Casper G. de Vries, 2007. "The Forward Premium Puzzle only emerges gradually," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-033/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    5. Stuart Landon & Constance E. Smith, 2003. "The Risk Premium, Exchange Rate Expectations, and the Forward Exchange Rate: Estimates for the Yen–Dollar Rate," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(1), pages 144-158, February.
    6. Baillie, Richard T. & Cho, Dooyeon, 2014. "Time variation in the standard forward premium regression: Some new models and tests," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 52-63.
    7. Herrmann, Sabine & Jochem, Axel, 2003. "Die internationale Intregration der Devisenmärkte in den mittel- und osteuropäischen Beitrittsländern: Spekulative Effizienz, Transaktionskosten und Wechselkursprämien," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2003,08, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    8. Juan Jose Echavarria & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2016. "Great expectations? evidence from Colombia’s exchange rate survey," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 25(1), pages 1-27, December.
    9. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Luca Benati, 2006. "Affine term structure models for the foreign exchange risk premium," Bank of England working papers 291, Bank of England.
    11. Ron Jongen & Willem F.C. Verschoor & Christian C.P. Wolff, 2008. "Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Survey And Synthesis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 140-165, February.
    12. Kerstin Bernoth & Juergen von Hagen & Casper de Vries, 2007. "The Forward Premium Puzzle: new evidence from futures contracts," DNB Working Papers 125, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    13. Frederick Nieuwland & Willem Verschoor & Christian Wolff, 2000. "Exchange risk premia in the European monetary system," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 351-360.
    14. Seongman Moon & Carlos Velasco, 2011. "The Forward Discount Puzzle: Identi cation of Economic Assumptions," Working Papers 1112, Nam Duck-Woo Economic Research Institute, Sogang University (Former Research Institute for Market Economy).
    15. Frachot, Antoine, 1996. "A reexamination of the uncovered interest rate parity hypothesis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 419-437, June.
    16. Prat, Georges & Uctum, Remzi, 2013. "Modeling the horizon-dependent ex-ante risk premium in the foreign exchange market: Evidence from survey data," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 33-54.
    17. Alexius, Annika, 2002. "Can Endogenous Monetary Policy Explain the Deviations from UIP," Working Paper Series 2002:17, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    18. Kiani, Khurshid M., 2013. "Can signal extraction help predict risk premia in foreign exchange rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 926-939.
    19. Simpson, Marc W. & Grossmann, Axel, 2014. "An examination of the forward prediction error of U.S. dollar exchange rates and how they are related to bid-ask spreads, purchasing power parity disequilibria, and forward premium asymmetry," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 221-238.
    20. Bhatti, Razzaque H., 2014. "The existence of uncovered interest parity in the CIS countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 227-241.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:12:y:2002:i:2:p:119-137. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/intfin .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.