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Who leaves school prematurely in Uganda: Do predictors vary by place of residence?

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  • Kakuba, Christian
  • Nankinga, Olivia
  • Golaz, Valérie

Abstract

This paper examined the predictors for school dropouts in Uganda following the introduction of universal primary education close to 30 years ago. We used 10 % of the 2014 Uganda Population and Housing Census dataset (albeit relatively old) to examine the predictors of school dropouts in; i) Rural Uganda ii) Kampala (the capital) and iii) other urban areas. We specifically applied the logistic regression model to predict the probability that a child aged 6–16 dropped out of school (versus not) in 2014. While the socioeconomic status of households, household size, composition and age of the child were the strongest predictors for dropouts, the latter were found to vary by place of residence, due to variations in; geography, population composition, nature of economic activity, supply of education and levels of commitment of local government authorities in school supervision. Action points to redress dropouts in Uganda cannot be implemented ubiquitously but ought to take into consideration peculiar circumstances pertaining in; i) Rural areas ii) Kampala and iii) other urban areas. Policy should especially engender fiscal reforms to increase local revenue and redress the various predictors for dropouts in the differing rural and urban spaces.

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  • Kakuba, Christian & Nankinga, Olivia & Golaz, Valérie, 2025. "Who leaves school prematurely in Uganda: Do predictors vary by place of residence?," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:injoed:v:114:y:2025:i:c:s0738059325000367
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijedudev.2025.103238
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kakuba, Christian & Nzabona, Abel & Asiimwe, John Bosco & Tuyiragize, Richard & Mushomi, John, 2021. "Who accesses secondary schooling in Uganda; Was the universal secondary education policy ubiquitously effective?," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    2. Mike, Ibrahim Okumu & Nakajjo, Alex & Isoke, Doreen, 2016. "Socioeconomic Determinants of Primary School Drop Out: The Logistic Model Analysis," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 4(01), January.
    3. Lewin, Keith M, 2020. "Beyond business as usual: Aid and financing education in Sub Saharan Africa," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    4. Omoeva, Carina & Gale, Charles, 2016. "Universal, but not free: Household schooling costs and equity effects of Uganda’s Universal Secondary Education policy," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 41-50.
    5. Quentin Wodon & Minh Cong Nguyen & Clarence Tsimpo, 2016. "Child Marriage, Education, and Agency in Uganda," Feminist Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 54-79, January.
    6. Stephanie R. Psaki & Katharine J. McCarthy & Barbara S. Mensch, 2018. "Measuring Gender Equality in Education: Lessons from Trends in 43 Countries," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 44(1), pages 117-142, March.
    7. Deininger, Klaus, 2003. "Does cost of schooling affect enrollment by the poor? Universal primary education in Uganda," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 291-305, June.
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