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Preemptive investments under uncertainty, credibility and first mover advantages

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  • Ruiz-Aliseda, Francisco

Abstract

We present a continuous-time game in which two firms must decide at each instant of time whether to be in or out of a market that expands up to a random maturity date and declines thereafter. Firms are initially inactive, and they differ only in the opportunity costs of using their assets (e.g., owing to different redeployment or resale values). After characterizing the unique Markov perfect equilibrium of the entry and exit game under demand uncertainty, we challenge the result that the threat of preemption can partially or even totally dissipate a first mover advantage. When post-entry profits can be negative, the preemption threat of a firm may become weaker because its rival may force it out of the market after entering. As a result, there may be little or no dissipation of the first mover advantage when post-investment profits are not assumed to be always positive.

Suggested Citation

  • Ruiz-Aliseda, Francisco, 2016. "Preemptive investments under uncertainty, credibility and first mover advantages," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 123-137.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:indorg:v:44:y:2016:i:c:p:123-137
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijindorg.2015.10.008
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Stefano Barbieri & Kai A. Konrad & David A. Malueg, 2020. "Preemption contests between groups," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 51(3), pages 934-961, September.
    2. Stefano Barbieri & Kai A. Konrad & David A. Malueg, 2019. "Preemption contests between groups," Working Papers tax-mpg-rps-2019-09, Max Planck Institute for Tax Law and Public Finance.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Entry; Exit; Rent dissipation; Credible commitment; Timing games; War of attrition;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games
    • D92 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice, Investment, Capacity, and Financing
    • L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets

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