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The conditional relationship between beta and returns: recent evidence from international stock markets

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  • Tang, Gordon Y. N.
  • Shum, Wai C.

Abstract

The risk-return relationship is one of the fundamental concepts in finance that is most important to investors and portfolio managers. Finance theory argues that the beta or systematic risk is the only relevant risk measure for investors. However, many studies have showed that betas and returns are not related empirically, no matter in domestic markets or in international stock markets. This paper examines the conditional relationship between beta and returns in international stock markets for the period from January 1991 to December 2000. After recognizing the fact that while expected returns are always positive, realized returns could be positive or negative, we find a significant positive relationship between beta and returns in up market periods (positive market excess returns) but a significant negative relationship in down market periods (negative market excess returns). The results are robust for both monthly and weekly returns and for two different proxies of the world market portfolio. Our findings indicate that beta is still a useful risk measure for portfolio managers in making optimal investment decisions.

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  • Tang, Gordon Y. N. & Shum, Wai C., 2003. "The conditional relationship between beta and returns: recent evidence from international stock markets," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 109-126, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:iburev:v:12:y:2003:i:1:p:109-126
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    7. Bilbao, A. & Arenas, M. & Rodriguez, M.V. & Antomil, J., 2007. "On constructing expert Betas for single-index model," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 183(2), pages 827-847, December.
    8. Yue-Jun Zhang & Yi-Ming Wei, 2011. "The dynamic influence of advanced stock market risk on international crude oil returns: an empirical analysis," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(7), pages 967-978.
    9. Ahmad Faisol & Sulaeman Rahman Nidar & Aldrin Herwany, 2022. "The Analysis of Risk and Return Using Sharia Compliance Assets Pricing Model with Profit-Sharing Approach (Mudharabah) in Energy Sector Company in Indonesia," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-14, September.
    10. Basher, Syed A. & Sadorsky, Perry, 2006. "Oil price risk and emerging stock markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 224-251, December.
    11. Tang, Gordon Y. N. & Shum, Wai Cheong, 2003. "The relationships between unsystematic risk, skewness and stock returns during up and down markets," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 523-541, October.
    12. Aloui, Chaker & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Njeh, Hassen, 2012. "Assessing the impacts of oil price fluctuations on stock returns in emerging markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2686-2695.
    13. Ali Matar, 2016. "Does Portfolio’s Beta in Financial Market Affected by Diversification? Evidence from Amman Stock Exchange," International Journal of Business and Management, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 11(11), pages 101-101, October.
    14. Petros Messis & Achilleas Zapranis, 2014. "Asset pricing with time-varying betas for stocks traded on S&P 500," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(36), pages 4508-4518, December.
    15. Bernard Bollen & Philip Gharghori, 2016. "How is β related to asset returns?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(21), pages 1925-1935, May.
    16. Hammami Algia & Bouri Abdelfatteh, 2018. "The Conditional Relationship between Oil Price Risk and Return Stock Market: a Comparative Study of Advanced and Emerging Countries," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 9(4), pages 1321-1347, December.
    17. Durand, Robert B. & Lan, Yihui & Ng, Andrew, 2011. "Conditional beta: Evidence from Asian emerging markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 130-153.
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    20. Guermat, Cherif & Freeman, Mark C., 2010. "A net beta test of asset pricing models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 1-9, January.

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