Self-rated health status transition and long-term care need, of the oldest Chinese
Objectives The objectives of this paper are: (1) to estimate the transition probabilities among self-rated health status for the oldest Chinese aged 80 and above; (2) to project the future need of long-term care due to changes in demography and health status among the oldest Chinese.Methods Self-rated health data collected in Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey conducted in 1998, 2000 and 2002 were used to estimate the self-rated health status transition probabilities, and to project future long-term care need by calculating the number of unhealthy person-years.Results The majority of the oldest Chinese's health status remains unchanged or worsens within 2 years. The number of unhealthy person-years rises regardless of gender, and the absolute number and increase rate of females are higher than those of males. Under the assumption that average care expenditure is 15 US dollars per hour in 2010, the long-term care expenditure will increase from 8352 million dollars in 2010 to 42,530 million dollars in 2050, a growth of more than 400% over the next 40 years.Conclusions Long-term care need for the oldest Chinese will rise rapidly in the next decades, which should stimulate increased governmental and public awareness of their need.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jylhä, Marja, 2009. "What is self-rated health and why does it predict mortality? Towards a unified conceptual model," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 307-316, August.
- Hoeymans, N. & Feskens, E. J. M. & Kromhout, D. & Van Den Bos, G. A. M., 1997. "Ageing and the relationship between functional status and self-rated health in elderly men," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 45(10), pages 1527-1536, November.
- Jane Zhang, 2006. "Long-term Care for the aged: critical issues and challenges to China's sustainable development," World Review of Entrepreneurship, Management and Sustainable Development, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 2(1/2), pages 126-143.
- Segovia, Jorge & Bartlett, Roy F. & Edwards, Alison C., 1989. "An empirical analysis of the dimensions of health status measures," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 761-768, January.
- Gu, Danan & Dupre, Matthew E. & Warner, David F. & Zeng, Yi, 2009. "Changing health status and health expectancies among older adults in China: Gender differences from 1992 to 2002," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 68(12), pages 2170-2179, June.
- Schulz, Erika & Leidl, Reiner & Konig, Hans-Helmut, 2004. "The impact of ageing on hospital care and long-term care--the example of Germany," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 57-74, January.
- Karlsson, Martin & Mayhew, Les & Plumb, Robert & Rickayzen, Ben, 2006. "Future costs for long-term care: Cost projections for long-term care for older people in the United Kingdom," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 187-213, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:hepoli:v:97:y:2010:i:2-3:p:259-266. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)or ()
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.