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Aggregating disparate estimates of chance

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  • Osherson, Daniel
  • Vardi, Moshe Y.

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  • Osherson, Daniel & Vardi, Moshe Y., 2006. "Aggregating disparate estimates of chance," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 148-173, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:gamebe:v:56:y:2006:i:1:p:148-173
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ladha, Krishna K., 1995. "Information pooling through majority-rule voting: Condorcet's jury theorem with correlated votes," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 353-372, May.
    2. List, Christian & Pettit, Philip, 2002. "Aggregating Sets of Judgments: An Impossibility Result," Economics and Philosophy, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(1), pages 89-110, April.
    3. Alison Hubbard Ashton & Robert H. Ashton, 1985. "Aggregating Subjective Forecasts: Some Empirical Results," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(12), pages 1499-1508, December.
    4. Peter A. Morris, 1974. "Decision Analysis Expert Use," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 20(9), pages 1233-1241, May.
    5. Christian List, 2005. "The probability of inconsistencies in complex collective decisions," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 24(1), pages 3-32, May.
    6. List, Christian, 2006. "Corrigendum to "A possibility theorem on aggregation over multiple interconnected propositions" [Mathematical Social Sciences 45 (2003), 1-13]," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 109-110, July.
    7. Daniel Berend & Jacob Paroush, 1998. "When is Condorcet's Jury Theorem valid?," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 15(4), pages 481-488.
    8. Brigitte Jaumard & Pierre Hansen & Marcus Poggi de Aragão, 1991. "Column Generation Methods for Probabilistic Logic," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 3(2), pages 135-148, May.
    9. Clemen, Robert T., 1989. "Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 559-583.
    10. Kelly, Jerry S., 1978. "Arrow Impossibility Theorems," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 1, number 9780124033504 edited by Shell, Karl.
    11. Robert T. Clemen & Robert L. Winkler, 1993. "Aggregating Point Estimates: A Flexible Modeling Approach," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 39(4), pages 501-515, April.
    12. Ronald A. Howard, 1989. "Knowledge Maps," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 35(8), pages 903-922, August.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Franz Dietrich & Christian List, 2017. "Probabilistic opinion pooling generalized. Part one: general agendas," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 48(4), pages 747-786, April.
    2. Christopher W. Karvetski & David R. Mandel & Daniel Irwin, 2020. "Improving Probability Judgment in Intelligence Analysis: From Structured Analysis to Statistical Aggregation," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(5), pages 1040-1057, May.
    3. List, Christian & Polak, Ben, 2010. "Introduction to judgment aggregation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 441-466, March.
    4. Ho, Emily H. & Budescu, David V. & Himmelstein, Mark, 2025. "Measuring probabilistic coherence to identify superior forecasters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 596-612.
    5. Joseph Simonian, 2014. "Copula-opinion pooling with complex opinions," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(6), pages 941-946, June.
    6. Joel B. Predd & Daniel N. Osherson & Sanjeev R. Kulkarni & H. Vincent Poor, 2008. "Aggregating Probabilistic Forecasts from Incoherent and Abstaining Experts," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 5(4), pages 177-189, December.
    7. Christopher W. Karvetski & Kenneth C. Olson & David R. Mandel & Charles R. Twardy, 2013. "Probabilistic Coherence Weighting for Optimizing Expert Forecasts," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 10(4), pages 305-326, December.
    8. David R. Mandel & Christopher W. Karvetski & Mandeep K. Dhami, 2018. "Boosting intelligence analysts’ judgment accuracy: What works, what fails?," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 13(6), pages 607-621, November.
    9. repec:cup:judgdm:v:13:y:2018:i:6:p:607-621 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Yuyu Fan & David V. Budescu & David Mandel & Mark Himmelstein, 2019. "Improving Accuracy by Coherence Weighting of Direct and Ratio Probability Judgments," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 16(3), pages 197-217, September.
    11. Guanchun Wang & Sanjeev R. Kulkarni & H. Vincent Poor & Daniel N. Osherson, 2011. "Aggregating Large Sets of Probabilistic Forecasts by Weighted Coherent Adjustment," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 8(2), pages 128-144, June.

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